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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/11/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We've got a medium-sized slate with 11 games on Monday, so there are plenty of exploitable matchups to target to bring you my best NRFI bets today and bonus bets. The goal is to achieve a profitable result while sticking to reasonable odds, as we aim to minimize our risk in an unpredictable market like the first inning.
There are a few intriguing spots for scoreless first innings on Monday. Each game features pitchers who have performed well in the first inning, including Zebby Matthews vs. Will Warren, Ryne Nelson vs. Nathan Eovaldi, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Jose Soriano.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, August 11, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to happen more often, which is why you usually see shorter odds compared to YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as whenever I take a YRFI, it feels like an inevitable loss. There's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning. If you're taking the YRFI, I suggest not even watching the game.
My favorite part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Just remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning at times.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 11, 2025)
- Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees: 7:05 pm ET
- Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers: 8:05 pm ET
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels: 9:38 pm ET
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIN: Zebby Matthews
- NYY: Will Warren
Lowest second-half FIPs thus far:
- Aaron Civale (1.46)
- Drew Rasmussen (1.58)
- Paul Skenes (1.76)
- Hunter Brown (2.08)
- Nick Lodolo (2.15)
- Nathan Eovaldi (2.31)
- Zebby Matthews (2.38)— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) August 9, 2025
The first NRFI starts with an AL clash between the Twins and Yankees.
Minnesota is going with Matthews, who has a 5.17 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 10 walks and 48 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. You have to love the strikeout-to-walk ratio, plus Matthews deserves better than those underwhelming surface stats, as highlighted by a 3.18 SIERA, which is much lower than his ERA.
What's great about targeting Matthews in this spot at Yankee Stadium is how good he's been in the first inning, featuring an impressive 7-1 NRFI record. This makes you feel better about this bet despite the game being played in a hitter-friendly environment.
On the other side, we have Warren, who has been inconsistent for the Yankees this season, registering a 4.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with 54 walks and 133 strikeouts in 115.2 innings. The young righty has been better lately, though, as he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in three consecutive starts.
But one thing that has definitely been consistent for Warren is his first-inning dominance, which includes a 19-5 NRFI record, which is among the best in baseball.
When you consider how well each of these young pitchers has performed in the first inning, you have to like getting a -110 price on this prop.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ARI: Ryne Nelson
- TEX: Nathan Eovaldi
The next NRFI starts with D-Backs' righty Nelson, who continues to enjoy a breakout season, putting up a 3.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 30 walks and 89 strikeouts in 101.1 innings. The 27-year-old has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts.
Additionally, Nelson has done terrific in the first inning, featuring an 11-3 NRFI record.
On the other side, the Rangers are rolling with Eovaldi, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate this season, putting up a 1.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 20 walks and 111 strikeouts in 111 innings.
Nathan Eovaldi of the @Rangers has allowed one run or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts.
Excluding openers, the only other MLB pitcher in the modern era to do that 13 times in a 14-start span is Bob Gibson (1968). pic.twitter.com/Mxql5n4p10
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) August 6, 2025
We've seen Eovaldi go on quite a roll lately, giving up a combined two earned runs in his last six starts, spanning 38.2 innings.
When you consider that this is a projected low-scoring game with a 7.5-run total, you have to like that we can get this NRFI at a reasonable price of -130 odds.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- LAA: Jose Soriano
The Dodgers rotation to start August has been FILTHY 🔥
Clayton Kershaw – 12 IP | 1 R | 7 K⁰Blake Snell – 10 IP | 3 R | 18 K⁰Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 5.2 IP | 0 R | 6 K⁰Tyler Glasnow – 7 IP | 1 ER | 7 K⁰Emmet Sheehan – 5 IP | 0 ER | 5 K⁰Shohei Ohtani – 4 IP | 1 R | 8 K
💥 6 ER… pic.twitter.com/zhlxlJGsbQ
— SleeperDodgers (@SleeperDodgers) August 10, 2025
The final NRFI heads to Los Angeles, where the focus is on an ace in an exploitable matchup.
Dodgers' righty Yamamoto is having a fantastic season, posting a 2.51 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 39 walks and 139 strikeouts in 122 innings. The advanced metrics support these results, including a rock-solid 3.26 SIERA.
We've seen Yamamoto get in quite the rhythm of late, combining for only eight earned runs allowed in his last seven starts, spanning 37.1 innings.
Tonight's matchup versus the Angels is a good one because this team strikes out at the highest rate in baseball, which bodes well for an NRFI, especially with a pitcher like Yamamoto on the mound, as he has an impressive 28.5 K%.
Then you have to consider how good Yamamoto has been against the NRFI, featuring a 17-5 record on the season. With that in mind, there's a good chance that Yamamoto can escape the opening frame unscathed in this exploitable spot against the Angels.
On the other side, the Angels counter with Soriano, who has put up a 4.01 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 61 walks and 119 strikeouts in 137 innings. While these numbers aren't anything impressive, his 3.81 SIERA indicates that he deserves a bit better.
While it's a tough matchup for Soriano, you have to like that his NRFI record currently sits at 19-5, which is one of the best in the big leagues.
We just need Soriano to do his part in the first because the main appeal of this bet is on Yamamoto. Judging by Soriano's NRFI record, I like our chances, making the -120 price look completely fine.
Conclusion: Best MLB NRFI Bets Today (August 11, 2025)
As we head into a Monday slate of games, today's MLB NRFI bets offer plenty of value with favorable pitching matchups and helpful trends. The focus of today's column was on pitchers who are in favorable spots or excel in the first time through the order.
Whether you're targeting pitchers with elite strikeout rates or strong control, this slate has something for every bettor looking for that quick six-out sweat.
Be sure to monitor starting lineups and weather before locking anything in, but don’t wait too long, as some of these NRFI odds could shift as the public piles in.
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