8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Randy Arozarena, Eury Perez, Mookie Betts, Dylan Cease, more

July 7, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 15 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 15 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll look at players like Randy Arozarena, Eury Perez, Mookie Betts, and Dylan Cease.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

We are officially over halfway through the regular season, so there is plenty of data available to assess player performance. Fantasy managers may need to make tough roster decisions as they evaluate their performance so far, so determining whose performance is legit and whose is not is critical at this point.

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 6, 2025.

Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners (OF)

.248/.355/.438 Slash Line, 13 HRs, 41 RBI, 15 SBs

Arozarena has been a consistent fantasy contributor throughout his career. He typically provides a decent batting average with 20 home runs and at least 20 stolen bases. He is on his way to that once again, thanks to a very hot June and July. He has crushed the baseball since the beginning of June, slashing .298/.371/.521.

Arozarena's batted-ball profile has been strong all season. His 91.5-MPG average exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate are in the 81st and 90th percentiles of baseball. He has also hit the ball in the air more than ever with a career-high 13.5-degree launch angle. Despite this, he has had better FB rates and HR/FB rates in his career, so there could be room for even more powerful results.

Randy Arozarena hits his 5th home run in his last 5 games! 💪 pic.twitter.com/4y57O8VMqS

— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2025

The good news is that his power results do seem to be catching up. His 16.2% HR/FB rate since the beginning of June is close to a career-high for Arozarena. Additionally, his .319 BABIP on the season is right in line with his career average, but he has posted a .349 BABIP since the beginning of June.

Arozarena has pretty much done what fantasy managers were expecting so far, although he has turned things up lately. He has been on a power surge for the last month and has impacted the ball well all season. There may not be any actions to take from this other than fantasy managers sitting back and enjoying his production.

Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (2B/3B)

.257/.340/.362 Slash Line, 4 HRs, 31 RBI, 8 SBs

Caleb Durbin was considered a prospect on the Yankees before getting traded in a package for Devin Williams. He has been fine in his playing time with the Brewers this season, and he has done it all in the last two weeks, slashing .436/.477/.538 with one HR, six RBI, and three stolen bases in 44 plate appearances.

Fantasy managers should not expect Durbin's slugging percentage to result in HR. He has not hit the ball hard, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom two percent of baseball. The good thing is that his speed is in the 80th percentile of baseball, and his 33.9% squared-up rate is among the top.

Durbin may not be the most exciting fantasy option, but he has shown why he was on fantasy radars. He has hit well lately, providing batting average and speed with some power. He is currently rostered in just 18 percent of leagues, making him a viable option for fantasy managers in deeper leagues in need of a boost to their lineups.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, Jul 6, 2025.

Eury Perez, Miami Marlins

1-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22.6% Strikeout Rate, 22 IP

Perez was one of fantasy’s top prospects in 2023 and had a promising season. He missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery but is now back and recently turned in a six-inning scoreless start. His previous four starts were not as inspiring, so should fantasy managers buy in?

Eury Pérez tosses 6 shutout innings as the @Marlins win their 4th consecutive series. pic.twitter.com/pbVMxMYgMb

— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2025

Lingering concerns always accompany a pitcher returning from a long-term injury. The 22-year-old looked great in his rehab outings and saw his fastball velocity return in full, but he didn’t have an opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues until June.

His return didn’t go perfectly from a results perspective. He had no strikeouts in one of his first four starts, allowed multiple walks in all but one of his first four, and allowed three or more runs in all but one of his first four.

Seeing everything click in his last start is encouraging for fantasy managers. Walks have been an issue, and his strikeouts have been down overall. On the positive side, his batted-ball profile has been solid, and he has shown flashes of his old self. Fantasy managers were likely going to need to give Perez some time, and he is now coming around.

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

8-3, 2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 22.1% Strikeout Rate, 98 2/3 IP

Matthew Boyd's name has always been fantasy-relevant to varying degrees. At age 34, he is putting together one of his better seasons with eight wins, a 2.54 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP in 17 starts with the Cubs. His current pace aligns with a career season; should fantasy managers assume he can continue his run at this point in his career?

Boyd's new pitching approach this season stands out. He has relied on his four-seam fastball more than he has in some time at 46.3%. He typically works up in the zone with his fastball, but this season, he hasn't located the pitch up as much. Consequently, he has allowed a career-high 87.9% contact rate with the pitch and just a 7.0% swinging-strike rate, compared to 10.9% last season.

His increased fastball usage has led to a decrease in his changeup and slider usage, which were his best swing-and-miss pitches. Boyd has provided high-strikeout fantasy value at times in his career by leaning into his slider. However, his 16.2% usage is his lowest with the pitch since 2017.

He has traded strikeouts for contact, but his batted-ball profile has been fine. He has done a good job limiting hard contact, inducing a lot of weak contact in the air. This has allowed him to pitch deep into games, averaging almost six IP/GS with 12 quality starts.

Matthew Boyd leads the Cubs with 12 quality starts this season 😤 pic.twitter.com/0LPilCRnnx

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 2, 2025

Boyd has gotten excellent results this season by shifting his approach. He has traded strikeouts for non-damaging contact. While this can work, it leaves less room for error, especially with such a high average launch angle. I think Boyd should continue to provide fantasy value in points leagues since he has pitched deep into games, but I would consider trying to sell high on him in roto leagues.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 6, 2025.

Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (SS/OF)

.249/.322/.396 Slash Line, 11 HRs, 44 RBI, 6 SBs

Fantasy managers would likely never guess that a .249/.322/.396 season slash line would belong to Betts, who has been one of fantasy's top hitters throughout his career. Unfortunately, this is what he has produced in his first 360 plate appearances of the season. Is there hope that he can get back on track in the second half?

Betts' batted-ball profile and swing stand out as culprits. His 88.4-MPH average exit velocity and 35.1% hard-hit rate are the lowest marks of his career and are much lower than his 90.4-MPH and 42.4% career marks. Not only are they the lowest for his career, but both marks are in the bottom quarter of baseball.

This may have to do with Betts' bat speed. His 68.7-MPH bat speed is in just the 10th percentile of baseball and is down over two MPH from 2023. He has done a great job squaring up the baseball, but it hasn't been enough to prevent a career-low BABIP and slugging percentage.

All players experience ups and downs throughout the season. The troubling aspect of Betts' case is that his underlying metrics have undergone a fundamental change, which could help explain his production decrease. Age could potentially be a factor, although he is just 32 years old.

Given his track record, I am inclined to hold out some hope that he can figure things out. It sounds like Betts himself is still searching for answers. His counting stats have been fine, and he hits in one of baseball's best lineups, which makes me hesitant to sell low on him.

Mookie Betts on his base running mistake in the bottom of the 7th, his homer, and if driving the ball recently is a sign he’s turning it around at the plate. pic.twitter.com/iFVt5Mww4T

— Michael J. Duarte (@michaeljduarte) July 6, 2025

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (OF)

.282/.342/.426 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 29 RBI, 1 SBs

Jackson Merrill showed why he was a top fantasy prospect with his 2024 performance, earning him plenty of hype for this season. While his season slash line looks fine overall, he has struggled from June on, slashing just .232/.318/.316. How concerned should fantasy managers be?

As an immediate reaction, Merrill's slump seems to be the extreme regression counterpart to his amazing start to the season. Merrill slashed .322/.362/.512 until the end of May, which, while not that much better than his 2024 season stats, was carried by a massive .370 BABIP. I would not have been surprised to see Merrill return to earth somewhat.

Digging into the specifics of his slump, Merrill has struck out a little more than usual but has still shown a good approach at the plate overall. His exit velocities are also in line with his season marks.

The one thing that stands out is his launch angle. Merrill owns a career 14.4-degree launch angle. However, his launch angle during his slump has been 20.1 degrees. Hitting the ball in the air is good to a point. However, Merrill has hit the ball too high without extra power, resulting in a 14.8% that is almost double his season mark.

Merrill has done plenty of things well this season and hasn't completely imploded during his slump. However, even during his strong start to the season, he had less power and fewer stolen bases than he did last season. I am not concerned at all about Merrill from a long-term perspective. However, I wouldn't be opposed to shopping him in re-draft leagues while his season stats are still presentable.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 6, 2025.

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

3-8, 4.62 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 28.9% Strikeout Rate, 97 1/3 IP

I wrote about Cease as a Fantasy Faller in Week 4, but called him a buy-low candidate. Things have been relatively better, but he has still underperformed with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 97 1/3 IP. Cease has posted disappointing seasons in the past; could this end up being another?

Things have rectified themselves to a degree. Cease's batted-ball profile has remained in line with his career marks, and his BABIP has regressed closer to his .294 career mark, although it is still high at .328. His contact rate has also dropped to 67.6%, which is closer to his career rate of 69.9%.

On the negative side of things, Cease's walk issues have crept up again. His season walk rate is now up to 8.6%, which is still lower than his 9.9% career mark. His high WHIP was being driven by his unusually high BABIP, but now it is back to being driven by his walks.

Cease does not present as encouraging a case as he did early in the season. Early on, he was running into issues that did not seem to align with his typical skill set. Those issues have rectified themselves, but he is now facing issues we have seen before. His strikeouts are high, and his contact rate is low, but his walk rate is too high.

Fantasy managers may have trouble trying to trade Cease away, although they may have to deal with this version of him, as has happened before.

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

4-9, 3.83 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 18.4% Strikeout Rate, 101 IP

Michael Wacha has been a high-floor fantasy starter over the last several seasons, and he has provided value for part of this season. However, he has posted a 5.85 ERA in his previous six starts. Can fantasy managers trust him to get back to his consistent ways?

Wacha has always managed a thin line of success. When he has been good, he limits damaging contact by limiting hard contact. The problem is he isn't a groundball pitcher, and his current 16.5-degree launch angle is the second-highest of his career.

He has allowed six HR in his last six starts compared to five in his first 12. His overall batted-ball profile is about the same in his six-start period, but he has either given up very weak contact or very hard contact, resulting in an above-average .323 BABIP.

Wacha is not an overpowering pitcher, but he isn't a groundball specialist. He has done a good job limiting hard contact over the past several seasons, but his current 4.02 xERA and 4.43 SIERA suggest that he could still have room to regress. Wacha's performance hasn't exactly been a surprise to savvy fantasy managers, so their best choice may be to bench him until he can turn things around.

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