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Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 4 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 4 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Tyler Soderstrom, Yordan Alvarez, Chris Bassitt, Aaron Nola, and more.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
With just about a month of data available, fantasy managers now have enough information to start forming more founded opinions.
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 20, 2025.
Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (1B)
.309/.367/.667 Slash Line, 9 HR, 19 RBI
Tyler Soderstrom came onto fantasy radars several seasons ago as a catching prospect. He is now playing first base for the Athletics, but has shown why he was so highly regarded.
The 23-year-old has provided elite power. His Statcast page is littered with red, including his 89th percentile average exit velocity. This was his calling card as a prospect, and it has translated to the big leagues, as indicated by his league-leading nine HRs.
So darn strong 😤
Will Tyler Soderstrom be the first to 10 HR?! pic.twitter.com/LBCike43SV
— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2025
He has also taken a more sound approach at the plate, as his 20.0 percent strikeout rate is a career low.
There isn't much else to say about Soderstrom other than he has been destroying the baseball in the early going. He has been hitting in the middle of a surprisingly productive A's lineup, perhaps partly due to their new home ballpark. He should continue to serve as a top source of power for fantasy managers.
Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants (OF)
.355/.412/.632 Slash Line, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 3 SB
Jung Hoo Lee’s first season in the big leagues was derailed with a left shoulder dislocation. He has made up for it early on in 2025, slashing .355/.412/.632 with three HRs, 14 RBI, and three stolen bases in 85 plate appearances.
Lee has carried over all of his skills from KBO. He has gotten on base often in addition to his batting average, with a 9.4 percent walk rate. His 72nd percentile sprint speed has led to a .387 BABIP and three stolen bases. He has also flashed stellar defense.
What a catch by Jung Hoo Lee 👏 pic.twitter.com/F3CjdTD8fJ
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) April 20, 2025
Surprisingly, he has hit the ball at about league average and has done a good job of squaring it up. Fantasy managers weren’t necessarily expecting any power production, so they’ll gladly take what he has given.
Lee has been hitting in the middle of a Giants lineup that has been better than expected, giving him more opportunities to accumulate counting stats. He has been everything fantasy managers had hoped for and then some.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 20, 2025.
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays
2-0, 0.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33.3% Strikeout Rate, 23 1/3 IP
Chris Bassitt has been a high-floor fantasy starter throughout his career, but his age-35 season in 2024 raised questions about whether he may be declining. He has put those questions to bed early in 2025.
Bassitt's big strikeout numbers have been the biggest surprise so far. He has always been a kitchen sink pitcher who emphasizes weak contact, but his 72.3 percent contact rate is much lower than his 79.9 percent career mark.
The strikeout recipe has come from his cutter and curveball. He has thrown the pitches a combined 32.9 percent of the time with 19.1 percent and 18.2 percent swinging-strike rates, respectively.
His batted-ball profile is still strong, and his 2.37 SIERA and 2.81 xERA, while much higher than his current ERA, still suggest strong underlying performance.
Chris Bassitt's 0.77 ERA leads all qualified MLB pitchers! 👏 pic.twitter.com/9JBS6ViSpB
— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2025
A 0.77 ERA is unsustainable for any starter, and it would not be surprising to see Bassitt's strikeout rate regress towards his career average as the season progresses. Even with expected regression, Bassitt has shown plenty of evidence that he still has high-floor fantasy value.
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres
3-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 27.9% Strikeout Rate, 23 IP
Nick Pivetta has been frustratingly tantalizing throughout his career, offering high strikeout upside but also allowing a high number of home runs and mediocre ERAs. He has shown only the positives to start the season with a 1.57 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, a 27.9 percent strikeout rate, and a 4.2 percent HR/FB rate in his first four starts.
Pivetta's pitch arsenal is still firing on all cylinders. He is still generating an impressive amount of swings and misses with his four-seamer at a 13.6 percent rate. He mixes that up with a combination of curveball and sweeper, still clearly an effective approach.
Nick Pivetta, Wicked 79mph Curveball. 🤢
Both the Curveball and Pivetta fall off the table. pic.twitter.com/R7bETp0Upo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 16, 2025
Pivetta's issue in the past has been the long ball, with a career average 15.3 percent HR/FB rate. He is still generating contact in the air, with a 15.2-degree average launch angle. However, he has allowed much less hard contact, so those flyballs that were leaving the yard are now turning into outs, despite pitching his home games in hitter-friendly Petco Park.
There isn't anything in particular to point to regarding Pivetta's avoidance of hard contact, and his current HR/FB rate is much lower than his career average. As such, I am skeptical that he can maintain his performance improvements to this degree.
However, like I mentioned with Bassitt, Pivetta has room for regression while still being a solid fantasy contributor. If he does regress, he will still be a valuable fantasy asset. If he doesn't, he will be a true fantasy All-Star.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 20, 2025.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (OF)
.215/.325/.354 Slash Line, 2 HR, 10 RBI
The Houston Astros have had a mediocre start to the season, and Yordan Alvarez has been part of it. The 27-year-old has been a top fantasy producer throughout his career, but he has had a sluggish start to 2025.
Fortunately for fantasy managers, Alvarez has only been a faller in terms of his peripherals. His career batting average is .296 with a career BABIP of .319. His current .215 batting average and .240 BABIP are much lower, but his batted-ball profile looks as good as it always has.
He is still hitting the ball extremely hard in the air. This approach has yielded success throughout his career, but he has gotten very unlucky early on, with a career-low 8.3 percent HR/FB rate compared to a 21.5 percent career average.
The good thing about baseball is that it offers large samples of data and time for things to sort themselves out. The bad thing is that fantasy managers may have to deal with periods of underperformance.
Alvarez is currently in one of those periods, but fantasy managers should be patient and wait for his peripherals to catch up to his underlying numbers.
Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers (2B)
.147/.207/.200 Slash Line, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB
Marcus Semien has provided fantasy value in a variety of ways throughout his career, but he has yet to provide any to start 2025. Now 34 years old, should fantasy managers start to worry?
Semien was a compiler in 2024, producing a lackluster .237 batting average but accumulating counting stats over 718 plate appearances. He didn’t particularly stand out in any facet of his game.
This makes it more difficult for fantasy managers to hold faith in him now. Despite his speed, his stolen base totals decreased in each of the last two seasons. He also is not hitting the ball hard, but he didn’t last season either.
His .164 BABIP is much lower than his career .281 mark, so I would expect some regression there. The Rangers have stepped things up offensively, and Semien hits at the top of their lineup, but he won’t be able to get his counting stats if he can’t get hits or get on base.
Semien does have a track record of being a fantasy contributor, and things don’t look that different under the hood, so there is some hope that things will normalize. The issue is that it doesn’t seem likely that Semien will be able to change anything in his game to drive improved performance.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 20, 2025.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
1-1, 6.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 26.4% Strikeout Rate, 20 1/3 IP
Dylan Cease has oscillated between a top fantasy contributor and a frustrating disappointment throughout his career. His 2025 has started as the latter with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 26.4 percent strikeout rate in his first four starts. Can fantasy managers expect more of the same?
Fortunately, Cease may be a false Fantasy Faller. His peripherals are awful, but there are encouraging signs under the hood. His batted-ball profile is right around his career average, and he has kept walks in check by his standards with a 7.7 percent walk rate. Despite this, his WHIP remains extremely high.
This can be written off as bad luck, specifically on balls in play. Cease has allowed a lot more contact than usual at 75 percent, but his .379 BABIP is way higher than his .292 average. His batted-ball profile is solid, so I would expect to see some regression here.
Additionally, most of the bad came in one start against the Athletics. Cease's overall production would still be disappointing without it, but allowing nine earned runs in four IP with only four total starts will really bloat the peripherals. Perhaps he just needed to shed his beard to get things back on track.
Dylan Cease is officially beardless! 👀
(via _jacksonmerrill_/IG) pic.twitter.com/vEpFxvsyMj
— MLB (@MLB) April 11, 2025
Cease has shown plenty of signs that he still has the skills of a higher-end fantasy starter. His strikeout stuff hasn't been quite there yet, but his pitch arsenal is still dangerous. His 3.36 SIERA and 3.77 xERA also suggest that his peripherals do not reflect his underlying performance.
I would jump at the opportunity to buy low on Cease if fantasy managers believe that he is truly a Fantasy Faller.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
0-4, 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 25.0% Strikeout Rate, 21 2/3 IP
Aaron Nola is currently in a similar situation to Cease as a higher-end fantasy starter who has not had much success. Cease still has plenty of promise; what is Nola's outlook?
Nola's underlying metrics are not as encouraging as Cease's. Breaking down his high WHIP, Nola has walked too many batters at a 9.0 percent clip, much higher than his career average of 6.4 percent.
He has also been hurt by balls in play with a career-high .377 BABIP. Unfortunately, Nola's batted-ball profile backs this up, as he has allowed a career-high 90.3 mph average exit velocity.
His four-seam fastball, in particular, has gotten hammered with a .316 batting average against. He has never been a flamethrower, but Nola's fastball velocity has been down over one mph at 91.2 mph.
There may be some bad luck at play. Nola's been hurt by the long ball early on with a 20.0 percent HR/FB rate. However, his career mark sits lower at 13.9 percent, and he has done a decent job keeping the ball out of the air with a 10.6-degree average launch angle.
His expected stats also suggest Nola has gotten unlucky, as his 3.51 SIERA and 3.99 xERA are much better than his current ERA.
Nola has too long a track record of success, and it's too early in the season for fantasy managers to take drastic action, but there are some signs to be concerned about. He may see things normalize in terms of giving up HR, but he will have trouble wrangling his ERA if he continues to walk batters while giving up hard contact.
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