PGA Course Preview for the 2025 John Deere Classic: Scouting the Routing

Ian McNeill's free comprehensive course preview of TPC Deere Run for the 2025 John Deere Classic. Ian examines the course, giving key metrics and trends to help make informed decisions on the PGA betting board.

For the third consecutive week on the PGA Tour, players will face a breakneck sprint to 20-under and beyond. Despite some less-than-stellar fields through the years, TPC Deere Run has spent each of the last eight seasons as one of the easiest 10 courses on the PGA Tour and is one of only three courses on the schedule with a sub-70 scoring average in that time.

This combination of easier scoring conditions and the absence of many of the game's preeminent stars has made the John Deere Classic one of the premier breakout spots for golf's brightest up-and-comers. From Jordan Spieth's magical hole out in 2013 to Bryson DeChambeau's back-nine 30 and Sepp Straka's dramatic Sunday run at 59, there have been many memorable moments down the stretch at TPC Deere Run. This week, we'll once again pit a few of the game's brightest starlets with an established roster of short-course ringers. Can a Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, or Jackson Koivun carry on the Quad City tradition of crowning another future star? Or will one of the many Deere Run vets capture another one for the old guard?

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on the TPC Deere Run and the 2025 John Deere Classic!

The Golf Course

TPC Deere Run - Par 71; 7,289 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Davis Thompson (-28) over L. Clanton, C.T. Pan, and M. Thorbjornsen
• 2023 - Sepp Straka (-21) over B. Todd and A. Smalley
• 2022 - J.T. Poston (-21) over C. Bezuidenhout and E. Grillo
• 2021 - Lucas Glover (-189 over R. Moore and K. Na
• 2019 - Dylan Frittelli (-21) over Russell Henley

Deere Run by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 38.4 yards; sixth widest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 290.2 yards; 15th highest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 69.6%; sixth highest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.40; 10th highest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.046); fourth easiest on Tour

We talked in detail last week about how the sheer forgiveness of Detroit GC's fairways provided as simple of a driving course as there is to be had on the PGA Tour. With an average width of 38.4 yards, however, TPC Deere Run is one of just seven courses on the schedule with landing areas off of the tee that exceed the breadth of what we saw last week.

With fairways as wide as Vidanta Vallarta (and Par 4s/5s measuring 40 yards shorter on average), TPC Deere Run presents players with as non-strenuous of a driving test as we'll see all year. Normally, landing areas this forgiving would point us in the direction of players looking to employ a bomb-and-gouge approach (a la Vidanta, Detroit, Craig Ranch, etc.).

However, there is one key difference between these bomber-favored venues and TPC Deere Run: the penalty in play for off-line tee shots. Deere Run features the third-highest rough penalty and the 10th-highest overall missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour -- and players who do miss into the 4" thick Kentucky Bluegrass will see their expected scores jump nearly half a shot above players who keep their ball in the short grass.

This stark dichotomy between drives in the fairway and drives off of it have turned the screws on many of the Tour's premier power players attempting to carpet bomb the midwestern countryside. Instead, the John Deere Classic has provided a haven for the likes of Ryan Moore, Lucas Glover, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker, all players who rely on precision over power off of the tee.

In fact, each of the last eight champions in the Quad Cities have rated out above field average in driving accuracy (five of whom finished inside the top 10 for the week). While Driving, in general, hasn't been nearly as predictive as other metrics we'll discuss in future sections (accounting for just 16% of average strokes gained by top 10 finishers), there is no question what profile has proven more consistent through the years. Keeping the ball in play is of the utmost importance -- you're scoring clubs will have plenty of time to make up the difference in firepower out of the blocks.

Deere Run by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 72.2%; seventh highest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (+0.026); fifth easiest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 125-150 yards (accounts for 20.0% of historical approach shots)
  • 150-175 yards (18.9%)
  • 75-125 yards (20.6%)

Speaking of scoring clubs, wedge play has proven to be the clearest through-line for success around TPC Deere Run. Nearly two-thirds of historical approach shots have come from inside 175 yards here, and one look at the list of past champions through the years here should give you a clear indication of the importance of a strong wedge game.

Steve Stricker completed the JDC three-peat from 2009-2011 whilst leading the PGA Tour in proximity from <125 yards on five separate occasions. Zach Johnson won two Major Championships on the back of his elite driving accuracy and acumen from inside of 150 yards, and Jordan Spieth, while not as reliable as Stricker or ZJ with the driver, historically remains unquestionably one of the best wedge players of his generation.

Since 2018, only two players have managed to finish inside of the top five at the JDC without gaining strokes on approach (Adam Schenk in 2021; Dylan Frittelli in 2019), and each had to log career-best weeks with their short games to manage that position. Proximity/Strokes Gained splits from inside 150 yards will each be among the most highly weighted metrics in my modeling this week -- as will more general iron metrics like SG: Approach and Birdie Chances Created.

Deere Run by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 58.6%; 1.1% above Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.027); ninth easiest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.022); eighth toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.005); 14th toughest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.007); Ninth toughest on Tour

While the thick rough around the greens at TPC Deere Run does make chipping one of the more difficult propositions facing players this week, there isn't much evidence to suggest that around the green play should be an even remotely essential aspect of your player assessments this week. Only three of the last eight champions here have ranked inside the top 40 that week in SG: ARG, while four players in that time have sat within a stroke of the field average.

As with any week, it is important to have enough of an aptitude around the greens to not tank your chances every time you're forced to chip, as only one player since 2016 has managed to finish inside the top 10 whilst losing more than 2 strokes for the week around the greens. However, as the best ball-strikers in this field could near Green in Regulation rates of 85%, the old adage in these birdie parties has never rung truer than this week:

"There are two things in this world that don't last: dogs chasing cars and pros putting for par."

Deere Run by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- Bentgrass
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.7% (0.3% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (+0.011); Third easiest on Tour

As was the battle cry on last week's betting card, putting will be as essential of a tool around the TPC Deere Run as anything we've talked about to date. Winners here have averaged a whopping 5.6 strokes gained on the greens and only five of 82 players since 2017 have managed to finish in the top 10 at the JDC whilst losing strokes on the greens.

The good news for some of the game's more... inconsistent putters is that TPC Deere Run won't provide nearly the same sort of putting test as we've seen in the last few weeks on the schedule. The addition of poa annua on the greens at Detroit and River Highlands made them much more difficult than the bentgrass birdie parties we're accustomed to in the midwest/northeast -- whereas Deere Run's pure bentgrass surfaces routinely rank as some of the easiest to navigate all year.

As a result, historically poor putters such as Kevin Yu, Emiliano Grillo, and Aaron Rai have putted their way onto the first page of the leaderboard. However, as we alluded to in earlier sections, Deere Run has still very much been a haven for the game's preeminent plodders -- particularly those who can heat up on the greens. From Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson in the 2010s to Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd, and Adam Schenk in recent iterations, aptitude with the flat stick remains one of the most important ingredients in this week's winning formula. I'll be weighing long-term bentgrass putting as the second most important metric in my modeling after wedge play and would need a very compelling ball-striking profile to even consider backing a player who hasn't proven moderately capable of spiking on the greens.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Wedge play; particularly looking at Strokes Gained/Proximity/Good Shot splits from inside 150 yards
• General iron metrics: SG: Approach, Birdie Chances Created
• Historical putting splits on Bentgrass Greens
• Driving Accuracy -- specifically measured by stats like Good Drive Percentage, Fairways Gained, and Past acumen on similarly positional driving tests
• Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring Conditions
• Stroked Gained: Shorter Courses

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Jason Day

JASON DAY WHAT A SHOT!

ONE BACK! 👀 pic.twitter.com/t5AaXUtmlJ

— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) June 22, 2025

Despite a string of impressive results and the cache of being a former World No. 1, you could easily argue Jason Day is enters the seventh month of 2025 as one of the PGA Tour's most underrated entities. A combination of illness, wrist, and neck injuries has already forced the Aussie out of three of the year's biggest events (The PLAYERS, the Memorial, and the Truist Championship), yet with a good week at TPC Deere Run, he could easily boost his FedEx Cup ranking past the likes of Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay.

When Day has teed it up without ailment, however, the game has looked as rock solid as you'd expect from a 13-time PGA Tour winner. He's gained strokes in all of the four strokes gained categories over his last two appearances (Oakmont and TPC River Highlands), and has notched eighth-place finishes at two of the most difficult venues we're likely to see all year (Bay Hill and Augusta National).

The two finishes he's recorded better than eighth, however, are particularly encouraging for me when assessing Jason's chances at TPC Deere Run. Back in January, he recorded 24 birdies plus two eagles in a third-place finish at the AmEx, and two weeks ago, he found himself just one back of the lead with seven holes to play at the Travelers Championship -- eventually settling into a tie for fourth.

When you dive into the advanced metrics, it becomes abundantly clear why JDay has achieved his greatest heights to date at shorter, wedge-intensive golf courses like River Highlands and PGA West. Since January 1st, nobody in this field can match Jason's consistency inside of 150 yards. He ranks at or above the 90th percentile in Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, Good Shot Percentage, and Poor Shot Avoidance from this key wedge range, and logged his best approach week in nearly two years on a setup in Palm Springs featuring a similar abundance of short/medium-length par fours.

Combine this stellar wedge play with a short game that has been his calling card since joining the professional ranks over 15 years ago, and it's not unfair to count Day as one of the game's most dangerous players on shorter setups. With no players in this field ranking better than 17th in the world per OWGR, it's a safe bet that if Jason does find his way into the mix Sunday afternoon, he'll be far and away the most accomplished man on the leaderboard.

Pierceson Coody

A birdie on the 72nd hole to get into a playoff ...@Pierceson_Coody 💪 pic.twitter.com/5RcTpN1qhR

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 14, 2024

While much of the hype will be centered around young guns like Luke Clanton, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Aldrich Potgieter this week to continue the youth movement around TPC Deere Run, my attention is drawn to the 25-year-old Longhorn out of Plano, Texas.

A former No. 1 amateur in his own right (an honor he notably took from defending John Deere Classic Champion Davis Thompson in April 2021), Coody has already notched three wins on the Korn Ferry Tour since leaving the amateur ranks and comes into this week carrying the best sustained form we've ever seen from the Texan.

Through nine starts on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025, Coody leads all comers in Scoring Average (67.44), Raw Strokes Gained (2.31), and Putts per GIR (1.66). He's finished outside of the top 12 just twice and is currently riding a streak of three straight top-seven finishes.

Just under one year ago, Pierceson came within a stroke of capturing his first PGA Tour title at the Isco Championship at Keene Trace: another short course in the midwest that features bentgrass greens and an abundance of short-iron approach shots. More recently, he's logged finishes of 16th and 25th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and CJ Cup Byron Nelson: each in his home state of Texas, featuring similar bentgrass greens to the ones he grew up with outside of Dallas.

Reaching scores of -21,-22, and -15 over the last three weeks on the Korn Ferry, Coody has flashed more than enough birdie-making ability to feel right at home at the breakneck pace we expect in the Quad Cities this week. Still just 25 years of age, I have no doubts that Pierceson's destined to live up to the expectations placed upon him as the crown jewel of Texas's 2022 NCAA Championship team. This week will present a golden opportunity to take a massive leap on that trajectory in a field not markedly different from the ones he's conquered three times in the last 36 months.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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