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Dawn Tepper's deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 11 (2025).
Welcome back to Unlikely Aces. We've reached mid-June, and while the MLB fantasy season has been full of surprises, some of the most reliable contributions have come from the most unexpected places. Sometimes, the sexiest pick isn't the right one, and that's what we're focusing on this week.
Each week, we'll look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming? Let's take a deeper look!
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Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
53% Rostered
Wacha just notched his second straight quality start and sixth overall this season, quietly putting together solid numbers for Kansas City with a 3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts against just 19 walks over 74.2 innings.
His June 7 quality start ended up as another tough loss, but Wacha did his job, generating 12 swings and misses while hitting the strike zone on 64 of his 95 pitches. The Royals' offense hasn't done any favors for the second-best rotation in baseball, but Wacha keeps pounding the zone and giving his team a chance to win every time.
What makes Wacha's 2025 success even more impressive is how it builds on his late-2024 transformation. In his first seven starts last season, he stumbled to a 1-4 record with a 5.50 ERA. From May 9, he posted a 12-4 record with a 2.72 ERA over his final 22 starts.
Michael Wacha, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/zVYJMnLuS6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2025
Wacha's key to effectiveness remains his elite changeup. Throwing it 30% of the time, he ranks third in usage rate, and opposing bats continue to struggle against it. Last season, batters hit just .164 against his changeup, and that dominance has carried over into 2025. The pitch has given him a legitimate out pitch that keeps hitters off balance and generates weak contact consistently.
Recent performances showcase exactly why Wacha deserves more attention. His near no-hitter against Detroit's Tarik Skubal was a masterclass in efficiency, retiring 19 of the first 20 batters he faced before surrendering a seventh-inning single to Colt Keith. That performance demonstrated his ability to attack the strike zone while avoiding the costly mistakes that plagued him earlier in his career.
Regression warning signs are flashing for the 33-year-old veteran. Wacha isn't going to pile up strikeouts, and when he falls behind in counts, that changeup loses its bite. The surface stats look nice, but dig deeper, and you'll find troubling signs.
He's getting hit hard 32% of the time, giving up barrels at a 6.9% rate and allowing an average exit velocity of 86.9 mph—all suggesting his luck might run out when those hard-hit balls start finding gaps. His .288 wOBA allowed is solid, but his .315 xwOBA suggests possible regression.
That said, his 3.30 ERA over the last three seasons proves this isn't just a hot streak. The three-year, $51 million extension he signed with Kansas City demonstrates the organizations trust in his ability to maintain this level of performance.
Wacha comes with risk, but if you're betting that regression stays away for a few more months, he could deliver serious fantasy value in both deeper leagues and as a streaming option in standard formats.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
66% Rostered
Jameson Taillon has quietly been putting together an excellent stretch with the Cubs, and since May 1, things have been looking up. The 33-year-old has posted a 3.16 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 42.2 innings in seven starts while striking out 19.5% of batters faced.
That strikeout rate isn't optimal, but the underlying metrics suggest a real improvement, regardless of what naysayers on social media say. Taillon's recent dominant performance against Detroit perfectly encapsulates his value—he took out Detroit's hitters with remarkable efficiency, needing only 84 pitches to complete seven innings.
The efficiency was remarkable in that outing. Taillon got five whiffs on 17 fastballs and seven whiffs on 14 changeups, with Detroit putting 19 balls in play against him with a meek average exit velocity of just 83.8 mph. Tigers star Riley Greene exemplified the struggles, striking out in all four of his at-bats with six swings and misses. It was Taillon's fifth straight quality start and ninth in 13 trips to the mound this season.
Jameson Taillon has been very good for the Cubs over his last 9 starts:
54.2 IP
2.80 ERA
0.86 WHIP
.191 Opp BA
19.1 K%
4.3 BB%
— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) June 10, 2025
A rebuilt changeup is the key to these numbers, and Taillon is now using it 28.5% of the time in two-strike counts against lefties (up from just 10% last year). His changeup has given him a much more reliable weapon against lefty bats.
Taillon's home/away splits from 2024 offer additional intrigue for fantasy managers. He had the second-lowest home ERA in the National League: 2.18 ERA at Wrigley Field, the second-lowest home ERA in the National League. With several upcoming home starts on the schedule, savvy managers can target favorable matchups to maximize his value.
The strikeout upside may be limited, but Taillon represents exactly what fantasy managers should want from a mid-tier starter: reliability, consistency, and the ability to rack up quality starts without destroying weekly ratios. He's transformed from a streamer into a must-roster player in deeper formats.
Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays
47% Rostered
Zack Littell is quietly putting together one of the more impressive runs by a Rays starter in recent memory. After tossing the franchise's first complete game in four years last week, the right-hander followed up with another solid outing Friday, holding Miami to one run over six innings.
During his current hot streak, Tampa Bay has won eight straight games that he has started, going 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over that span. Littell remains unowned in many fantasy leagues, so managers must determine if they're looking at a legitimate breakout or just another streamer who got hot at the right time.
ZACK LITTELL WITH THE FIRST RAYS COMPLETE GAME SINCE 2021 pic.twitter.com/maVSmFHFu6
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) May 31, 2025
Tampa's development of Littell represents another success story in their track record of maximizing pitcher potential. The Rays helped him cut back on four-seamer usage, increase his two-seamer usage, and incorporate a sweeper, but mostly they helped him with his mechanics to become an elite strike-thrower.
Littell's turnaround has been crucial for Tampa Bay's recent surge. Since May 20, the Rays rotation has gone 10-2, helping the team post a 13-3 record over that stretch. If Littell finds himself in play at the trade deadline, the Yankees could come calling. If he finds himself on the Bombers' mound, he could be an appealing fantasy option for managers down the stretch.
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