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Mike's 2025-26 college football playoff bracket predictions. His projections for all 12 teams for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff. Read the expert college football analysis.
Changes To The College Football Playoff for 2025
College Football did the right thing and improved the playoff seeding for 2025. The top four overall teams will get the byes this year, which means teams like Arizona State won’t be rewarded just for winning the conference. Those teams would have to finish in the top four of the final CFP rankings to get the bye.
Is that a good thing? All four teams that received a bye in the 2024 College Football Playoff (Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State) lost their first game. On top of that, they missed out on the home playoff game! That was a big deal for the schools that got to host a playoff game. Honestly, the CFP should do more of that. The first and second rounds should be home playoff games. That is a way to ensure that the regular season retains some importance.
Who are the 12 teams that will make the 2025 College Football Playoff? I created a similar piece back in February, but with the increased activity of the spring portal this year, things have changed significantly. I’ll count down the 12 playoff teams in order, and unlike the piece I did last week, this time around, we’ll be taking a look at the schedules to go with the talent. February rankings are in parentheses.
12. Memphis
Giving a playoff spot to the best Group of 5 team last year wasn’t a big deal since Boise State was high enough in the rankings to get in on merit alone. This year, that is unlikely to be the case. Memphis’s hold on this slot is very tentative. They have to replace a lot on offense, and UTSA loaded up on that side of the ball.
Memphis loses WR Roc Taylor, RB Mario Anderson Jr., and QB Seth Henigan from a potent offense, but the Tigers hit the portal hard to offset these losses. Memphis brings in QB Brendon Lewis from Nevada (formerly of Colorado), RB Rashad Amos from Mississippi, and WR Jadon Thompson from Louisville. They may be a little more unproven than the departed, but Memphis also revamped the defense. Eight new starters permeate the defense and make it much better than last year. Not only that, but Memphis added a lot of depth (nine more on the two-deep on defense and four more on offense). Depth can be king in college football.
Both teams are in the same conference, but they dodge each other in the regular season. The American Athletic Conference Championship game could serve the purpose of an actual conference championship this year. The winner is likely to be in the playoff. Memphis has a little more room for error this year since their big non-conference tilt is against Arkansas instead of Ole Miss this year, and it’s at the end of September. UTSA has to play Texas A&M to open the season. If UTSA stumbles elsewhere in conference play, this is Memphis’s spot.
11. Clemson
Once again, Clemson largely ignored the transfer portal. They are relying on true freshman Gideon Davidson to fill the shoes of Phil Mafah, who was a huge piece of this team last season. For all of the Cade Klubnik slander that was around last year, he really had a very good season (3,639 yards, 36 TD, just six INT). All three starting receivers return this year.
Ignoring the portal is Clemson’s modus operandi, and after the fiasco at Tennessee this spring, more schools may employ this strategy if they can afford to. Clemson might win the ACC, but much like last year, their ranking will be lower than the conference runner-up because of the schedule. The Tigers have to face both LSU and South Carolina in the non-conference schedule.
The only real conference threat to Clemson is a game in Atlanta on September 13. Clemson dodges Miami and SMU and gets both Syracuse and Florida State at home. A nightmare scenario could unfold for the ACC this year. Clemson could lose the ACC Championship and be left out of the playoff if they lose to both LSU and South Carolina.
10. South Carolina
This was the team that I shamelessly plugged as being wrongfully left out of the 2024 playoff. The Gamecocks proceeded to lose to Illinois in one of the stranger bowl games of last season. While that loss stings, the future looks bright in Columbia. Super-freshman (now sophomore) LaNorris Sellers returns at quarterback. Utah State’s Rahsul Faison will replace Rocket Sanders. Take it from me: Faison might be just as good.
I really wanted to put Florida here, but once again, the Gators have a brutal schedule with Miami, LSU, Mississippi, and Texas A&M on the road, along with home games against Texas and Georgia. The football Gods hate the Gators, but that just means a different SEC team takes their place — South Carolina. The Gamecocks also get LSU, Mississippi, and A&M on the road, but they don’t play Georgia or Texas. The marquee non-conference games (Virginia Tech and Clemson) are both at home.
9. Miami (FL) (10)
The Hurricanes moved on from the flash of Cam Ward to the steady hand of Carson Beck. Georgia fans are quick to point out Beck’s shortcomings, but they’re spoiled. I’ve watched enough of Beck to know that he can excel in this offense. Joining Beck in Coral Gables is former Liberty and LSU wide receiver CJ Daniels. Daniels is the veteran leader of a very young (and very raw) WR room that is going to feel the losses of Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George, and Sam Brown Jr. Who will step up alongside George?
I came really close to putting Georgia Tech here, but Miami has an easier road in the conference. Miami has two monsters in the first month of the season (Notre Dame and Florida) before the schedule gets significantly easier. The only tough game after that is at SMU. The best part? Miami doesn’t have to travel out west for a game this year. They get Stanford at home. A three-loss ACC team made it into the playoff last year. Miami can get in this year with two.
8. Baylor
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson and leading rusher Bryson Washington return, as does the whole offensive line. The Bears brought in Alabama’s Kobe Prentice to pair with last year’s leading receiver (Josh Cameron). The defense will once again be a strong unit. More than likely, the Big 12 (16) will only get one team in again this year. If I were a betting person (and I am), that spot goes to Baylor.
The Bears miss Texas Tech, Iowa State, and BYU while getting Arizona State and Kansas State at home. The toughest game on this schedule looks like the Revivalry in Fort Worth in mid-October. That’s not a bad schedule if you can get it, and the non-conference games against SMU and Auburn early in the season will look good.
7. Indiana (NR)
How will the Hoosiers follow up their most successful season since Lee Corso was their head coach? It shouldn’t be much different. The Hoosiers dodge Ohio State and Michigan this year but get Penn State and Oregon, both on the road. Indiana loses Kurtis Rourke, but they hit the portal and brought in Cal’s Fernando Mendoza — who was very good on a very bad team as a freshman.
Maryland transfer Roman Hemby will help out Kaelon Black in the backfield. Leading receiver Elijah Sarratt is back, as is Omar Cooper Jr. This offense likely won’t miss a beat. Leading tackler Aiden Fisher is back at LB, as is sack-master Mikail Kamara. The Hoosiers added a couple of transfers to an already strong defense. If this team can beat Oregon, they may contend for the Big Ten (18) title. The biggest question is whether the committee will let in a two-loss Indiana team over a two-loss Miami team. I believe in the Hoosiers, but they likely need to be Penn State or Oregon to get in. If they lose both, this slot goes to Oregon.
6. Notre Dame
I’m a little concerned that Notre Dame is content with CJ Carr at quarterback. Riley Leonard may not have been a great passer, but he ran for over 900 yards last season. That’s the only complaint with the Notre Dame offense. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are a great 1-2 punch at RB. Joran Faison and Jaden Greathouse are joined by Virginia transfer Malachi Fields. The Irish have their best WR room in a while this year. We just need to know if Carr can get it to them.
The Irish open tough with a game at Miami and home against Texas A&M. After that, the Irish likely won’t lose again. No one cares if the Irish start 0-2 and run the table afterwards. The best part for Notre Dame is that they don’t have a conference championship game to hold them back. The toughest game after A&M is a game against USC at home.
5. Texas
I ranked Texas as the most talented team coming out of the spring portal, but this schedule rivals Florida’s as one of the toughest. The Longhorns open the season in Columbus and have road games in the Swamp and Athens. That’s three top-5 road games. The good news is that Texas can lose all three of those games and still make the playoff. If I thought Texas would lose all three, I wouldn’t have them ranked this high.
Among the contenders that will have a new starter at QB this year (Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, and Notre Dame), Texas has the most proven new starter. Arch has the famous surname, but he has some wheels, too. That’s not a usual Manning trait. Arch finished with a 184 passer rating in 90 pass attempts last year. That is an impressive number. Quintrevion Wisner took over the starting job last year, but he could split time almost evenly with CJ Baxter, who was expected to be the starter last year after a strong 2023 campaign. Baxter tore his LCL and PCL last year just before the start of the season, but from all reports, he has looked good in camp.
4. Penn State
We’ll just go ahead and call this what it is. The Big Ten (18) is VERY top-heavy but has almost nothing for middle-tier teams. The top demolishes all but the top five teams in the conference and racks up wins, while the Big 12 (16) and SEC, both more evenly matched conferences top-to-bottom, beat up on each other and pile up losses. Penn State’s non-conference schedule would make the SEC blush (Nevada, Florida International, and FCS Villanova). The conference schedule isn’t much better.
Penn State gets both Oregon and Indiana at home. They head to Ohio State, but that is Penn State’s only sure loss, and I’m only saying that because of Franklin’s record in big games. This team has the talent to win every game. They return the best RB duo in the country in Kaytron Allen and Nicolas Singleton. Drew Allar improved last year and should be better this year. The big issue with Penn State is replacing Tyler Warren, whom they used all over the offense last year, and Abdul Carter, one of the best defensive players of this century.
3, Georgia
Gunner Stockton was solid after Carson Beck went down. Trevor Etienne, Arian Smith, and Dominic Lovett are all gone. Leading rusher Nate Frazier is back, as are key TEs Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. Illinois transfer Josh McCray will try to replace Etienne. The Bulldogs pulled in Zachariah Branch from USC to give them a true deep threat. I know that Georgia doesn’t have nearly the talent that they had last year on offense, but the defense is just as good, and the schedule is even better.
The Bulldogs get Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia Tech, and Texas at home. The Florida game is always in Jacksonville, so nothing changes there. The Bulldogs also have the fortune of playing Tennessee very early (September 13) before they get the offensive flow figured out. Georgia may not have the talent of past years, but they aren’t far off, and the favorable schedule makes up for it.
2. LSU
It’s no secret how I feel about Brian Kelly, but the man can build a football team. Garrett Nussmeier is a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. Transfers Barion Brown from Kentucky and Nic Anderson from Oklahoma will form a formidable trio of targets with Aaron Anderson. Seriously, the WR room is one of the best in the country, at least at the top. Caden Durham took over the starting RB job halfway through his freshman season and helped turn around LSU’s season. He will be one of the best backs in the SEC this year.
As far as SEC schedules go, LSU has a pretty favorable one. Florida, South Carolina, and A&M all make trips to Red Stick. A trip to Clemson in Week 1 could be tough, as will a trip to Oxford. The Tigers head to Tuscaloosa and Norman in November. LSU will likely need to win both of those to live up to my hype, but the talent is in place for them to do so.
1. Ohio State
One of the best offenses in college football must replace a 4,000-yard passer (and team leader) in Will Howard and 2,956 all-purpose yards between TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins (not to mention a 1,000-yard receiver in Emeka Egbuka). Jeremiah Smith is likely the best receiver in college football. Carnell Tate had a strong year last year as well. RB James Peoples and WR Brandon Inniss looked good when they played. The question mark on the offense is QB Julian Sayin. He only threw 12 passes last season.
Sayin was the top-rated player in the 2024 recruiting class when he committed to Alabama before heading to Columbus. Recruiting rankings aren’t always the gospel that some think they are, but very rarely do pundits miss badly on the top-rated player. Even if Sayin doesn’t live up to the hype, he’ll be better than most quarterbacks in his conference.
As with Penn State, the Buckeyes have an easy schedule. The only two tough games (Texas and Penn State) are at home. The Buckeyes play at Michigan, and the Wolverines have their number lately. However, as last year proved, Ohio State can still lose that game and win in the playoff. Getting in with this schedule should be a breeze.
