RADIO
Todd McGill's Round 4 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 PGA Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
A wet and, at times, still rainy Quail Hollow has been a great host site for this 107th PGA Championship. After a slow start by every top 10 player in the world, things were cranked up a notch on Saturday as Scottie Scheffler took control of the golf tournament down the stretch with three birdies and an eagle over his last five holes of the day to lead by three shots. In a week that stumped many of the world's best players, the world No. 1 is in a very familiar position to win his third major championship.
A long and soft Quail Hollow is playing with more bite than many had thought it would have after heavy rains soaked the Charlotte area early in the week. Because of this, strokes gained off the tee haven't been as big of a factor as was predicted earlier in the week. Rather, the tried and true recipe of solid approach play is the leading metric of importance here, which is easy to see why Scheffler is beginning to run away with things.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Since May 3rd, Quail Hollow has received over six inches of rain, making things a total mess from tee to green. The decision not to allow players to play ball-in-hand has been highly scrutinized by players all week long, and it is bound to be a talking point again on Sunday.
Luckily, the weather won't be as much of a factor, and with Scheffler unlikely to fold, it's going to take something spectacular to catch him tomorrow.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: It's Scottie Scheffler. Do I even need an explanation here? The most dominant player in golf has shown up again after the thrashing he delivered in Texas a couple of weeks ago, and he has his foot squarely on the gas pedal.
His performance on Saturday was a true work of ball striking art, as he led the field in strokes gained off the tee (+2.87) and on approach (+3.34), as well as greens in regulation (77.8%) and driving accuracy (92.9%). It will take something monumental for someone other than him to lift the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.
Other Options: Rory McIlroy,
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Jon Rahm was a personal favorite coming into the week because of his driving prowess and ability to get hot with the putter. The big stick hasn't let him down, as he leads the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.61). The putter has been relatively strong as well, but tricky approach shots and a poor short game over the first two rounds got him off to a slow start.
With so many unproven players in position tomorrow, Rahm is one of the few players who could potentially match Scheffler's firepower.
"He took it like a champ."
Jon Rahm's hilarious response to hitting a fan. 😂 pic.twitter.com/5gUVqJVKbh
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) May 17, 2025
Other Options: Joaquin Niemann
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Tony Finau got off to a slow start statistically, but score-wise, he's turned in steady rounds of 70-69-69 over the first three days. Ball striking has been on fire, as he ranks second this week in strokes gained on approach (+2.15) and has gained +2.56 strokes off the tee over his last two rounds.
Finau has a long and frustrating history on Sundays in major championships. Hopefully, the mindset being six shots back and chasing the best player in the world will allow him to be more loose and free-willed tomorrow.
Other Options: Tyrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNealy
$7,000+
Favorite Play: North Carolina native, J.T. Poston, was an interesting play on Thursday for his hot run of play entering the week, and he hasn't disappointed. The 31-year-old ranks third in the field in strokes gained on approach (+2.04) and putting (+2.22).
There is a present fear of reaching that comes from his 138th ranking this season in final round scoring average (71.33). However, he's managed to make 11 birdies to only four bogeys on the week, which signals he is in a comfortable place right now as long as the moment doesn't get too big.
Hickory, North Carolina native J.T. Poston, who is also a graduate of Western Carolina, is currently tied for third place (-7) heading into Sunday at the PGA Championship. On Friday, he pulled off an impressive par save from the drop zone on No. 17. pic.twitter.com/VXFh34ziNU
— CLTure® ( culture ) (@CLTure) May 18, 2025
Other Options: Harris English, Ryo Hisatsune
$6,000+
Favorite Play: If the "hot hand" approach has any bearing on tomorrow, perhaps Davis Riley is a decent option. After a wild even-par round on Thursday, the 28-year-old has only made two bogeys to go along with nine birdies in his last 36 holes. It has been a strong performance across the board, as he ranks eighth in strokes gained tee to green (+2.77).
Tomorrow will be a big moment for the former Crimson Tide golfer, both for this season and for his career as a whole. It will be interesting to see if he's ready for the spotlight when he tees off in the penultimate group alongside J.T. Poston.
Other Options: Max Greyserman, Lucas Glover, Joe Highsmith
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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