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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/30/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, giving us plenty of opportunities to find value in home run props. Today's hitters include Pete Alonso, Jake Burger, Gunnar Henderson, Seiya Suzuki, Alejandro Kirk, and Bryson Stott. Each of these players is either red-hot or has intriguing batter-vs-pitcher data in tonight's matchup.
The way we come up with these home run props is by considering several factors, including batted ball metrics such as Barrel percentage, lefty-righty splits that examine wOBA, and weather conditions, as heavy winds can turn flyballs into home runs. It's also important to make sure that the price is right, as we don't want to be playing overly inflated lines.
Keep reading to find out my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, April 30:
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets
- Jake Burger, Texas Rangers
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
- Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays
- Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+265 DraftKings)
Forget that!
Pete Alonso launches one off the facing of the second deck! pic.twitter.com/T4jitXdeY7
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 30, 2025
Alonso is off to a fantastic start this season, slashing .346/.462/.664 with seven home runs in 132 plate appearances. We've seen improvements in plate discipline (15.2 BB percentage, 15.2 K percentage) and batted ball metrics (20.5 Barrel percentage) so far.
The Mets' slugger has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games, homering twice during this stretch. It's clear that Alonso is much more comfortable at the plate this year after a disappointing 2024 season.
It's a good matchup vs Corbin Burnes tonight, as the D-Backs' righty has a 5.23 xERA and 1.35 HR/9 on the season. This is a pitcher who has been one of the biggest disappointments in the early stages of the year. Burnes has been getting hit hard, as highlighted by his 10.7 Barrel percentage. On top of that, Alonso has had success vs Burnes, putting up three home runs with a .542 xwOBA in 16 plate appearances.
While this is an expensive line at (+265) odds, we have to ride with Alonso given how well he's played so far this season. Back the red-hot first baseman to slug his eighth homer of the year in this favorable spot.
Jake Burger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings)
Jake Burger hits the 4th @Rangers home run of the game! pic.twitter.com/xaOo1sCiWK
— MLB (@MLB) April 23, 2025
Burger hasn't been great for the Rangers so far, putting up a .196/.240/.348 slash with three home runs in 100 plate appearances. But there is reason for optimism, as Burger is hitting the ball hard, registering a 13.6 Barrel percentage.
We're also seeing Burger start to show signs of emerging from his season-long slump. In his last two games, he's gone 3-for-8 with zero strikeouts. The fact that he's been putting the ball in play more bodes well.
We've got an exploitable matchup against Luis Severino tonight. The A's veteran righty has a 4.07 xERA that includes a 4.72 xFIP vs right-handed hitters. Burger has performed well against Severino in his career, homering twice with a .502 xwOBA in 16 plate appearances.
Even though this is an inflated line at (+380) odds, I'm willing to pay the price on a power hitter showing encouraging signs of getting back on track.
Looking for more baseball bets today? Check out our new MLB Parlays article here!
Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings)
Gunnar Henderson - Baltimore Orioles (3)
pic.twitter.com/K5YMxwcGsX— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 30, 2025
Henderson is another hitter off to a slow start, registering a .227/.269/.420 slash with three home runs in 93 plate appearances. During this stretch, Henderson is striking out 28 percent of the time, which would be a career-high.
However, it's starting to look like the Orioles' star is set to finally break out of his slump, as he's currently on a five-game hitting streak that includes a home run in his last game. We've also seen Henderson strike out only twice in his last four games.
It's also worth noting that Henderson had done well against Carlos Carrasco in his career, homering once with a .725 xwOBA in five plate appearances. The veteran righty has allowed a 4.89 xFIP vs left-handed hitters, so Henderson is in a good spot to homer for the second consecutive game.
We're getting an appealing price at (+450) odds on a hitter who homered 37 times last season. Let's take a shot here because Henderson looks set for a power binge.
Seiya Suzuki OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)
Lucky 7s 💪
Seiya Suzuki's 7th HR of the year makes it 7-0 @Cubs in the 7th. pic.twitter.com/gxny3e8RWs
— MLB (@MLB) April 30, 2025
Suzuki has performed well for the Cubs this season, slashing .298/.368/.596 with seven home runs in 117 plate appearances. The Cubs' designated hitter is crushing the ball so far, as highlighted by a 16.4 Barrel percentage.
This is a player with four multi-hit games in his last five, including a home run last night.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Pirates' righty Carmen Mlodzinski, who has posted a 4.90 xERA on the season. Mlodzinski has allowed a 4.19 xFIP against right-handed hitters, so Suzuki has a chance to keep it rolling in this one.
With how well Suzuki is playing this year, (+500) odds look like a bargain. Take one of the hottest hitters in MLB to hit his eighth home run in this favorable spot.
Looking for more baseball bets today? Check out our new MLB Parlays article here!
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Here we have our first longshot home run prop on tonight's slate, targeting Alejandro Kirk in an interesting spot. You may wonder, why would I take the Blue Jays' catcher, who has homered a combined 14 times from 2023-25, including only one in 88 plate appearances so far?
The reason for this is the batter vs. pitcher matchup vs. Lucas Giolito. In 11 career plate appearances vs Giolito, Kirk has an impressive three home runs. With that kind of standout data, it's clear that Kirk has somewhat of an edge in this matchup.
It also helps that Giolito is making his season debut after missing all of 2024, so there could be some rust here.
The (+800) odds look appealing in this spot, even on a hitter who doesn't have much power. Let's take a shot at this price for Kirk to belt his second home run of the season.
Bryson Stott OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+900 DraftKings)
We'll conclude tonight's slate of home run picks with Phillies' infielder Bryson Stott, who has a .292/.373/.438 slash with two home runs in 110 plate appearances. This is another longshot, especially since Stott homered only 11 times last season.
But Stott has four multi-hit games in his last nine, including one home run during that stretch. There's a reasonable chance that he can keep it going against Jake Irvin tonight.
For one, the Nationals' righty has struggled against lefties, allowing a .321 wOBA against them this season. It also helps that Stott has good numbers vs Irvin in his career, as highlighted by two home runs in 15 plate appearances.
You have to love the price at (+900) odds in this spot, especially considering Irvin has outperformed in ERA so far, including a 4.81 xERA. With that in mind, let's sprinkle on the Phillies' second baseman to hit his third home run of the season.
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