PGA Course Preview for the 2025 Valspar Championship: Scouting the Routing

After a couple of nail-biting final rounds in Orlando and Ponte Vedra, the PGA Tour travels to Florida's western coast for the final leg of the Sunshine Swing. There won't be any $20 million prize pools until the first Major Championship of the year one state North, but with 12 of the OWGR Top 30 are here in Palm Harbor -- we'll be seeing one of the strongest Valspar fields we've seen in recent memory.

On top of the many marquee names in this week's field, Mother Nature will be bringing her own share of storylines to Florida's Gulf Coast: as sustained winds of 20-30mph on Thursday and Friday promises to make one of the Tour's most underratedly difficult venues into a Major Championship-esque torture chamber for the unprepared.

Before we get into the odds board on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Innisbrook's Copperhead Course and the 2025 Valspar Championship!

The Golf Course

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook - Par 71; 7,340 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Peter Malnati (-12) over Cameron Young
• 2023 - Taylor Moore (-10) over Adam Schenk
• 2022 - Sam Burns (-17) over Davis Riley (playoff)
• 2021 - Sam Burns (-17) over Keegan Bradley
• 2019 - Paul Casey (-8) over Jason Kokrak & Louis Oosthuizen
• 2018 - Paul Casey (-10) over Patrick Reed & Tiger Woods

Innisbrook by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 27.9 yards; 5th narrowest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 276.9 yards; 3rd lowest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 57.1%; 14th lowest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.34; 16th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.061); Toughest on Tour

Although Palm Harbor marks the end of our four-week stint in the Sunshine State, Innisbrook does not fit the same hazardous driving profile of a TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, or Bay Hill. Water comes into play on just five of 14 tee shots here at the Copperhead Course, and Innisbrook's 2.1% penalty fraction (the percentage of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke), ranks well below the 5-6% baselines of its Florida cousins.

Instead, Innisbrook relies on a multitude of tight doglegs, treelined corridors, and forced layups to test the world's best off of the tee. Club-down options will be presented on virtually every hole, and as a result, the average driving distance ranked as the fourth lowest on Tour in 2023 (just 280.5 yards).

This eclectic layout makes the Copperhead Course one of the toughest places on Tour for elite drivers to separate themselves in their usual ways, and when looking back through recent strokes gained leaderboards, it's not uncommon to see precision players like Kevin Streelman, Brian Harman, Abraham Ancer, and Paul Casey find their way to the top of total driving leaderboards.

It should also be noted that off-the-tee prowess ranks as one of the lowest predictors to success around Innisbrook. Two of the last five champions here have actually lost strokes to the field off of the tee, and top five finishers have historically gained just 15.7% of their total strokes with their tee shots.

If you are looking for specific stats to predict success at Innisbrook, I would mainly lean into accuracy-intensive stats like Good Drive % and Fairways Gained. Additionally, it could also be worth looking back at a player's historical OTT splits around Innisbrook in particular (as well as a collection of comparable club-down designs: Harbour Town, Colonial, Wai'alae, PGA National, etc.). If a player has shown a regular acumen for navigating these strategic layouts, I'd have no worries about his ability to conquer the driving test on tap at Innisbrook this week.

Innisbrook by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 57.2%; 2nd lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.024); 9th toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 175-200 yards (accounts for 23.7% of historical approach shots)
  • 200+ yards (23.2%)
  • 150-175 yards (20.6%)

We talk virtually every week about the amplified significance of iron play in predictiveness when compared to off-the-tee, but there is perhaps no other venue in which the gap as wide as this week at Innisbrook. Top five finishers at Innisbrook have gained more strokes on approach (on average) than with their drivers and short games combined, and no champion here since 2014 has gained less than 2.5 strokes with their irons for the week (only four of 11 have gained less than 5).

When attempting to find a winner this week, then, projecting the field's most prolific iron players jumps to the forefront of our statistical process. Luckily, the immensely positional nature of Innisbrook's layout means that many players will be forced to play from the same spots coming into greens, and has resulted in one of the more skewed approach distributions we've seen all year. Approximately 47% of historical approach shots here have come from beyond 175 yards, and only 32% have come from inside of 150.

Innisbrook is very much a mid/long-iron course, as I project players to have a 175+ yard approach shot on at least 11 of their 18 holes. We'll be leaning heavily into approach metrics/proximity splits from those specific ranges, and virtually every player in consideration for my outright card this week will need to possess a proven aptitude with a middle/long-iron in hand.

Innisbrook by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 59.1%; 1.6% above Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.009); 17th easiest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (+0.020); 10th easiest on Tour

For a golf course that has produced one of the lowest GIR rates and one of the higher scoring averages on the PGA Tour, top five finishers at Innisbrook have surprisingly not been all that reliant on their short games. Around the Green play has accounted for just 13.6% of total strokes gained, and over the last four years, we've seen players like Jason Kokrak, Brian Harman, and Max Homa attain top finishes despite hemorrhaging strokes around the greens.

This isn't to say that short game is completely useless in predicting success here, as many recent champions here at Innisbrook have done so on the back of an elite short game. Five of the last nine winners here have gained at least 3.0 strokes Around the Greens, and no Valspar Champion since 2012 has lifted this trophy whilst losing strokes to the field in this area.

What Innisbrook does provide is a bit of forgiveness in regards to the difficulty of the short game shots required. Over the last three seasons, Innisbrook has ranked in the bottom half on Tour in Scrambling Difficulty from the Fairway, the Rough, and the Sand, and since 2015, the Copperhead Course has ranked as the 10th easiest course to gain strokes around the greens.

Around easier greenside surrounds, I tend to devalue the merits of an elite short game, and instead look to simply filter out those with clear deficiencies in this area. After all, with a historic GIR % of just 57%, players will be forced to scramble at a much higher rate than on a normal week on Tour, but I don't believe you need to possess a Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas-level short game to adequately navigate the short game shots required.

Innisbrook by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 5,822 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- TifEagle Bermudagrass w/ Poa Trivialis overseed
• Stimpmeter: 12
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.9% (0.1% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.004); 10th toughest on Tour

As we alluded to in last week's article, Innisbrook is one of the key agronomic corollaries to the greens we saw at TPC Sawgrass. Playing at a similar speed, at a similar time of year, and with similar dimensions, it's difficult to find a more fitting parallel when projecting putting performance. Of course, two other key comps can be found earlier this year at PGA West and TPC Scottsdale.

This volume of recent comparables is a welcome sight to handicappers at a tournament where putting has been the #1 predictor of high-end finishes. Top five finishers here historically have gained over 37% of their total strokes on the greens, and over the last 11 years, only Paul Casey in 2019 has managed to lift this title whilst gaining less than 3.0 strokes putting for the week.

My process might be different if this field included a multitude of players with ball-striking ceilings that come overcome the historic reliance we've seen players place on putting here at Innisbrook, but even in one of the Valspar's strongest fields in recent memory, it's difficult to find many names you'd feel are capable of replicating Paul Casey's path to victory in 2019 (11.3 SG: Tee-to-Green; +0.4 SG: Putting). Outside of a select few players who do possess that ball-striking prowess (JT, Fleetwood, Straka), I will be looking at a player's historic proficiency on similarly overseeded surfaces as well as recent momentum on the greens leading up to this week.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Proximity Splits/Approach Metrics from 175 yards and beyond
• Recent Momentum on the Greens/Historic Putting Performance on similarly overseeded complexes (TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, etc.)
• Bogey Avoidance/SG: ARG/Scrambling
• Good Drive %/Driving Accuracy/Past Driving Splits on Comparably Positional Layouts
• Par 5 Scoring

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

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Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

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— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Tommy Fleetwood

Everything about this Tommy Fleetwood shot is perfect 🤤 pic.twitter.com/d7CQp3yMum

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 12, 2025

By this point, there have probably been millions of words written about Tommy Fleetwood's quest for a first PGA Tour victory: many of which coming from this very series and none proving able to bear that elusive fruit for his fans or outright bettors.

It hasn't been for a lack of trying, however, as Fleetwood has recorded eight consecutive top 25 finishes on the PGA Tour dating back to last summer's Olympics: all of which coming in the Tour's Signature Series or FedEx Cup Playoffs. He's on one of the most impressive ball-striking runs of his career: gaining an average of 0.45 strokes per round with his driver and 1.25 with his iron play in that time.

At Innisbrook, Tommy has already recorded two top finishes: including a T3 in 2023 where he begun the final round just one back of the 54-hole lead and one ahead of eventual champion Taylor Moore. This highly positional, second-shot intensive layout should work perfectly for Tommy's game, and he's routinely experienced his greatest successes this side of the pond on some of America's toughest tracks (Shinnecock, Augusta, Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, etc.).

I'm much more apt to bet Tommy at a venue where he won't be asked to make eight birdies per day, but instead rely on his precision ball-striking and underrated short game to create separation when many in the field are overwhelmed by the course conditions. His 8:35 a.m. tee time Thursday morning should take him out of much of the toughest weather, while many of his main rivals (J.T., Conners, Lowry, etc.), will have to contend with Innisbrook at its more fierce. With this combination of good fortune and one of the highest baselines currently available in the sport, Tommy Fleetwood is the only name I'd have interest in under 20-1 this week.

Nicolai Hojgaard

🚨🚨What odds an ace on a par 4?!? 🚨🚨

Desperately close for Nicolai Hojgaard on 16! pic.twitter.com/23mefuMLkb

— Golfbet (@Golfbet) April 22, 2023

His calling card as a junior may have been his immense length off of the tee, but the recently-minted 24-year-old has proven this season that he's much more than just a one-note tune. Through four starts in 2025, Hojgaard ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach (right between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy for reference), and gained nearly a stroke per round on the greens in two starts in the Sunshine state (Cognizant/PLAYERS).

Zooming out to over a full year of data as a full-time PGA Tour member, Nicolai's talent with a long-iron in his hand becomes even more pronounced: ranking in the 97th percentile or above in Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, and GIR Percentage from 200 yards and beyond.

It's nearly as impressive from 150-200 yards as well: as he once again rates out in the upper 10th percentile in my three key approach metrics. With over 67% of historical approach shots coming from beyond 150 yards at Innisbrook, it's difficult for me to project anyone with a higher baseline with the iron game -- let alone a 100-1 long shot who has already bested some of the best fields in Europe in his illustrious six-year career.

I continue to be exceedingly high on Nicolai, as well as many others in this seemingly endless supply of young Danish talent. He's stared down the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Jon Rahm, and a peak-Viktor Hovland in his win less than 18 months ago at the DP World Tour Finals. And based on recent form, I don't think he's done anything to warrant his afterthought-status at the back of this week's Valspar odds board.

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