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Joey breaks down starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, values who changed teams for 2025. His undervalued pitchers include Yusei Kikuchi, Jesus Luzardo, more.
A handful of starting pitchers changed teams this offseason. Corbin Burnes signed a massive six-year, $210 million deal in the winter, and Garrett Crochet was traded to the Boston Red Sox for multiple prospects. Even Max Fried found a new home in free agency after signing an eight-year, $218 million contract with the New York Yankees.
But none of those pitchers are value picks in fantasy drafts this season. Both Crochet and Burnes are rated properly at their respective ADPs and are great selections later in the third round of drafts. As for Fried, he's going around pick 87 and might be going a bit too high in drafts following his move to Yankee Stadium.
So, which three pitchers who changed teams this offseason are value picks? Let's dive in and find out.
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Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 143.3
Although starter Jack Flaherty pitched for the Detroit Tigers last season, he did switch teams this offseason. That's because Flaherty was traded from the Tigers to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline and pitched there for the final three months. He then signed a two-year, $35 million deal with Detroit in free agency.
Flaherty will now rejoin the Tigers rotation in 2025, where he was extremely successful as a starter a year ago. He went 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 133 strikeouts across 18 starts. While his stats might not have been as great with the Dodgers over his final 10 starts (3.58 ERA and 61 strikeouts), the right-hander still had a very strong season.
Even though Flaherty dealt with some back issues throughout the year, his 3.17 ERA and 194 strikeouts were his best numbers in a season since 2019. After that impressive campaign, there's reason to believe that the 29-year-old can build off those numbers and be a consistent fantasy option again in 2025.
The Tigers have signed RHP Jack Flaherty to a two-year contract for the 2025-26 seasons.
Welcome back, Jack! pic.twitter.com/j0Z6nMcVuK
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) February 7, 2025
Flaherty's strikeout numbers from a season ago were a bit of a surprise. He had just a 19.8 percent strikeout rate in 2022 and a 22.8 percent strikeout rate in 2023. However, his strikeout rate rose to 29.9 percent in 2024, which ranked in the 90th percentile. A reason for that had to do with his increased usage of his off-speed pitches.
He threw his slider 29 percent of the time and his knuckle curve 21.8 percent of the time. Those two pitches were extremely successful for him last season, as opposing batters hit just .222 against his slider and .164 against his knuckle curve. That also helped Flaherty rank in the top 9 percent of the league in whiff rate (32.1 percent).
As long as Flaherty continues to rely on his off-speed pitches, he will be a fantastic value pick at his 143.3 ADP. He showed he could strike out batters at a high level while not issuing many walks. His 5.9 percent walk rate ranked in the 83rd percentile title in 2024. Given that Comerica Park ranks 21st in ballpark factor on Baseball Savant, the Tigers pitcher is a nice target in drafts.
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 182.2
Starter Yusei Kikuchi will be pitching for his third major league team in two years. Kikuchi started the 2024 season with the Toronto Blue Jays before being shipped off to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline. The left-hander will now pitch for the Los Angeles Angels following a three-year, $63 million deal he signed in free agency.
Although Kikuchi struggled a bit in his Toronto tenure last year, his potential was on full display with the Astros in the final two months of the season. He finished 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 76 strikeouts across 10 starts. More importantly, the left-hander was a solid fantasy option during that span.
That strong end-of-the-season stretch helped Kikuchi finish with solid numbers across the board. He had a 4.05 ERA, 206 strikeouts, a 1.201 WHIP, and issued only 44 walks across 175 2/3 innings. As a result, the 33-year-old veteran can turn out to be a great value pick on his new team at his 182.2 ADP.
Yusei Kikuchi struck out 8 straight batters on his way to his second double-digit K start of the year. pic.twitter.com/ROMjK3tAOu
— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2024
Now, the two biggest knocks on Kikuchi entering the 2025 season will be that he pitches for the Angels- which could result in fewer wins- and the fact that he struggled with the Blue Jays earlier in 2024. The left-hander had a 4.75 ERA and a 1.340 WHIP in 22 starts for Toronto. However, there should be some optimism surrounding the veteran this year.
Kikuchi has struck out at least 180 batters in back-to-back years, and his 28% strikeout rate in 2024 was a career high. His slider continues to be an effective pitch for him. He struck out 64 batters on that pitch alone last season while holding opposing hitters to a .208 batting average. Ever since the left-hander added a curveball to his arsenal before the 2023 season, his overall numbers have been solid.
He has a combined 3.96 ERA and 387 strikeouts over the last two years and has been a more accurate pitcher. After finishing the 2022 season with a 12.8 percent walk rate, Kikuchi has allowed under 50 walks in consecutive seasons. As a result, it's best to ignore which team the left-hander will pitch for in 2025 and look at his recent success on the mound instead.
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 233.7
It was an all-around disappointing season for pitcher Jesus Luzardo in 2024. He started just 12 games and missed most of the year due to a stress reaction in his lower back. Even when he was healthy, Luzardo was not putting up strong numbers on the mound. The left-hander had a 5.00 ERA and 58 strikeouts across 66 2/3 innings pitched.
The 27-year-old will now be looking to bounce back in a new situation after he was traded from the Miami Marlins to the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason. As long as Luzardo can stay healthy this upcoming season, his new home in Philadelphia could help him be a strong fantasy option again.
For starters, the left-hander is just two years removed from a dominant season on the mound. In 2023, Luzardo finished 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 32 starts. Even the season before saw him have a 3.32 ERA and 120 strikeouts across 18 starts. While injuries have been a problem for him in two of the past three years, it's hard to pass on him at his generous 233.7 ADP.
Jesús Luzardo gets Shohei Ohtani swinging out of his helmet... 👀
Luzardo strikes out the side in the 3rd ♨️@Marlins | #MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/p8ZDwoQMe5
— Marlins on FanDuel Sports Network (@FDSN_Marlins) May 27, 2023
His whiff rate (29.6 percent) still ranked in the 80th percentile last season, and the left-hander is fully healthy heading into the 2025 campaign. Fantasy managers have also seen what Luzardo can do when he is at the top of his game. He finished with a strikeout rate above 28 percent in both 2022 and 2023.
Therefore, the upside is there for him to be a value pick in fantasy drafts this year. He could win double-digit games and finish with solid numbers if he can stay healthy. It's also important to note that Luzardo's FIP (4.26) last season was 74 points lower than his actual ERA (5.00). So he might have gotten a little unlucky on the mound in 2024.
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