RADIO
Taking a break from the California coast, the sixth event of this 2025 PGA Tour season is arguably the wildest in golf; it's the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. A fan-favorite on the schedule that comes with mixed opinions from PGA Tour players, it seems to energize viewers with the typical fireworks created by one of the better finishing stretches in tournament golf.
This year, achieving such excitement will be a little more difficult, with Thomas Detry holding a five-shot lead heading into tomorrow's final round. However, with big names like Jordan Spieth, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Scottie Scheffler behind him on the leaderboard, he can't afford many mistakes if he wants to stay there.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Other than a chilly start to the day, conditions couldn't be more ripe for the taking tomorrow. Calm winds and mid-70 temps are the perfect recipe for chasing down a guy with a gigantic lead. Everyone will likely need a little help from Detry tomorrow to do it, but getting through the first nine is the toughest part of TPC Scottsdale and will give us a real sense of other player's chances once they make the turn.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: It was shocking to see Scottie Scheffler struggling in the opening round of this event when he made the turn at +2. He thankfully returned to normal soon after, making two eagles and two birdies on the back 9, along with a poor double bogey to still finish in red figures.
The world No. 1 has battled back with rounds of 66-68 in rounds two and three and sits in T10. Stats are a little wonky from the first round, but he is fifth in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.31).
Taking Scheffler here is like picking low-hanging fruit, I get it, but how many times have we seen him do something ridiculous early on Sunday to take over a golf tournament? More than I'm willing to bet against.
Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Rasmus Hojgaard will be a name to know going forward if you don't already. Anyone who pays attention to the European circuit has already heard of this stud, with five wins to his credit. Making the jump to the PGA Tour this season, he is already making his presence known.
The 23-year-old represents the perfect mold for TPC Scottsdale, and his play has reflected that, as he ranks eighth in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.16) and 10th in strokes gained putting (+1.34). Those two statistics are typically the heaviest weighted at this event.
In terms of having one last shot to chase down the lead, Hojgaard is perhaps the best player for the job. His length off the tee gives him chances to easily reach all three par-5s, and his putter is perhaps the hottest of any player in the top 10 outside of Detry.
Absolutely absurd.
Nicolai Hojgaard drives the green and nearly aces the par-4 16th @Zurich_Classic 🤯 pic.twitter.com/E5Hu4FawXU
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 22, 2023
Other Options: Sungjae Im
$8,000+
Favorite Play: If it weren't for horrible iron play in Friday's round, Robert Macintyre would likely be sitting in solo second right now, but instead, he finds himself in T7 at -11 under. Outside of approach play, the Scotsman is performing well at TPC Scottsdale, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.32) and 13th in strokes gained putting (+1.19).
The poor time with his irons has still only amounted to two bogeys on the week, and the more intriguing part is that he came alive in round three, posting a -6 under, 65 and ranked 11th on the day in strokes gained on approach (+1.49). It will be a good day for Bobby Mac if everything hangs around tomorrow.
Other Options: Jordan Speith, Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim
$7,000+
Favorite Play: I let my gut talk me out of playing Maverick McNealy at the start of the week, and I won't do it this time. The importance of driving accuracy at TPC Scottsdale is similar to the Seaside resort, where McNealy won the RSM Classic in the fall, and his usual dominance with the putter finally came around on Saturday, gaining +5.60 strokes on the greens.
It will be hard to replicate the same fire on the greens, but if the ball striking remains solid, he can still produce a solid output tomorrow.
Cash the par bet ✅
Maverick McNealy with a nice up-and-down on the @ESPNBET stream on @PGATOURLIVE.@Golfbet pic.twitter.com/533Wv5cY3J
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 8, 2025
Other Options: Taylor Moore, Daniel Berger, Michael Kim, Adam Hadwin
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Sam Ryder had difficulty wrangling in his ball striking over the first two days but came out Saturday firing on all cylinders to fire a bogey-free 67. He gained strokes across the board, and as long as the driver doesn't go sideways, he has a good chance of gaining even more positions tomorrow.
Finding someone to give you high-level production this far down the board is like finding a needle in a haystack. But, having a solid option this low can allow for greater flexibility toward the pricier options. So, while I wouldn't expect something crazy from Ryder tomorrow, his perceived floor is much higher than most other options here.
Other Options: Kevin Yu, Ben Silverman
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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