2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook (Week 12 Update)

We are 11 weeks into the college football season. What does the new 12-team college football playoff bracket look like before Week 12? Mike Marteny takes a look.

This was intended to be a monthly update of the playoff picture, but things have gotten wild in the first couple weeks of November. Wild enough that we at RotoBaller thought it was necessary to do a weekly update over the next couple of weeks.

Georgia and Miami both lost, throwing a wrench into the ACC and causing some SEC separation. It also makes the possibility of a two-loss team getting into the playoff a certainty. You already know how I feel about that. The SEC continues to beat up on each other, proving nothing. There is a possibility that a three-loss team makes the playoff without an automatic bid. To me, that's disgusting. I don't want college football to be the NFL. The NFL can have its brand. College football needs to be itself.

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical about this, but I hope I am proved wrong. I fear that once the novelty of all of these wild conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12. The apocalypse could happen in Year 1.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of half-empty ready-made bowl stadiums. That is the one part about this playoff that I am in favor of.

Three-loss teams vying for a championship? If I wanted that mess, I would watch football on Sundays. There is a reason why I don't.

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

Miami and Pitt both lost. Clemson finally lost a conference game. Defying all odds, that leaves SMU as the only undefeated ACC team within the conference. If the conference championship were to happen this weekend, it would be SMU and Clemson, leaving 9-1 Miami on the outside looking in. That hardly seems right, but here we are.

SMU's only loss is to BYU. That's looking like a good loss. The Ponies take the ACC's automatic bid this week with Miami in the running for an at-large bid.

Big 12 (14):

BYU's great escape in the Holy War in Salt Lake City last week leaves it as the sole unbeaten team in the conference. The automatic bid is now easy in the Big 12 (14).

Big Ten (18):

Indiana and Oregon are the only undefeated teams in the conference. They are also both 10-0. Oregon gets the nod because it took out Ohio State and Boise State.

SEC:

The SEC is a disaster. Alabama beat Georgia. Georgia beat Texas. Mississippi beat Georgia. Arkansas beat Tennessee. South Carolina beat the Aggies. The only one-loss teams in the conference are Texas, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Texas's big wins are gone. Tennessee beat Alabama, so it'll get the nod.

At-Large Champion:

Is it an undefeated Army or a one-loss Boise State? Boise nearly beat Oregon in Eugene, so I think it has to go to Boise. Besides, it will be a travesty if Ashton Jeanty isn't in this first expanded playoff.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

Seven other one-loss teams aren't already in. Boy, if only it were that easy. Louisiana is one of those, and there's no way the Cajuns are getting in. Now, we need to start discussing two-loss teams, mainly just in the SEC.

ACC:

Clemson and Miami both lost, which postpones playoff armageddon for a week at least. A 9-1 Miami team still gets in for me. Clemson and Pitt are out. The ACC only gets messy again if SMU loses.

The only thing of interest left in this conference is who gets into the title game along with SMU. If Clemson and Miami both win out, we have to look at tiebreakers since they didn't play each other this year. The second tiebreaker is the win percentage of all common opponents. Right now, Clemson leads that.

That would leave a potentially 11-1 Miami out of its conference championship game. Would it still get a playoff bid? What happens if Clemson beats SMU? SMU and Miami didn't play each other, either.

Create mega conferences, they said. It'll be fun, they said. For the record, no one said this, and every sane college football fan I know realizes that these conferences are horrible for the sport. Most of them are in favor of the expanded playoff, but even they see that these conferences are out of hand.

Big 12 (14): 

Right now, the Big 12 (14) is one of the easier ones. BYU would play Colorado for the title and every Great Plains state would lose their collective minds. Even if BYU were to lose to Colorado, I would think it would get in. Right now, BYU is the only bid. Colorado's loss in Lincoln in September is holding it back.

Big Ten (18):

Can the Big Ten (18) get four teams into a 12-team playoff? If the playoffs were right now, yes. Ohio State's loss is to Oregon and Penn State's is to Ohio State. This scenario may not play out. Indiana still plays Ohio State. A loss for the Hoosiers might knock them out. A loss for the Buckeyes would likely knock them out.

SEC: 

Here is where it gets messy. The SEC is cannibalizing itself. Texas is still in right now despite lackluster wins. A&M has a claim, but the win over LSU no longer looks so impressive. A two-loss Alabama, which has beaten four top-25 teams, should have a better claim than either of the Texas teams. The Tide beat LSU and Missouri by a combined 63 points.

Is Georgia getting left out again? If it loses to Tennessee, it's over. A win over Tennessee would go a long way considering it also beat Texas in Austin. As of now, I have Georgia out, but it is one of the few teams with a chance to mess things up even further.

Four Big Ten (18) teams in the playoff right now hurt the SEC. This playoff was designed with the SEC in mind. No one on that committee thought the Big Ten (18) could legitimately claim that many slots. That only leaves two at-large slots for the SEC.

Forget about what could happen later. That doesn't help our exercise now. Texas and Alabama are the at-large SEC bids with Georgia, Mississippi, and A&M fans left shouting from the rooftops. Sorry, Mississippi. The win over Georgia doesn't get you there with the rest of the schedule turning out to be rather soft.

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

Yes, we're not talking about Wazzu here, even though it is ranked. This is Notre Dame. Does a one-loss Notre Dame team make it in over a two-loss SEC team? That loss to Northern Illinois looks bad. The win at Texas A&M looks good and the Irish are piling up style points by running up the score.

Hey, I don't blame them and I don't have a problem with it. College football doesn't care about sportsmanship and hasn't in decades. The only ones who do are the coaches, but they all understand that you have to do what you have to do when it comes to style points. The fans get more bent out of shape about it than anyone involved in the games.

What I came up with for the seven at-large teams: Texas, Alabama, Miami, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State.

College Football Playoff As Of November 12

Byes: Oregon (1), BYU (7), Tennessee (6), and SMU (14)

Other automatic qualifier: Boise State (13)

At-large teams: Ohio State (2), Texas (3), Penn State (4), Indiana (5), Notre Dame (8), Alabama (9), and Miami (12)

Realistically, some form of UT, Bama, the other UT, and UGA will hold spots 1, 5, 6, 7

OSU, ORE, PSU will probably be 2, 8, 9

Given that scenario, i still would rather be the 5 seed playing a G5 champ then the B12 champ

As opposed to having a bye, then playing ORE or PSU

— #RunItUpJ (@TVGuy_JR) October 3, 2024

The second ACC bid is the weakest of the at-large bids right now. If SMU loses in the conference championship, the ACC likely only gets one team anyway. The SEC is hoping for carnage in the Big Ten (18). With much of the SEC participating in Cupcake Week this weekend, they won't gain much ground.

Farmageddon went from must-see TV (and a game that could have happened in four consecutive games) to just a fun rivalry in two short weeks. The Big 12 (14) is only getting one team in unless BYU loses in the conference championship game.

These super-huge conferences are an issue. They will be the death of the 12-team playoff in a matter of three years or less. The Ohio State-Indiana game in two weeks is the only remaining game in the Big Ten (18) aside from the conference championship game that will have any bearing on the playoff.

The loser of the Big Ten (18) Championship Game will still get in. We can't say that for the SEC. Right now, the Big Ten (18) has a decided advantage over everyone else. Oregon and Penn State play average-at-best teams down the stretch.

Of course, everyone thought Miami could coast to Charlotte and SMU was an afterthought two weeks ago. Weird things happen in November (yes ... even Oklahoma lost a November game this year).

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

Since we are doing this piece weekly now, I'm going to highlight a few games this weekend of interest.

Texas at Arkansas: A loss for Texas could eliminate the Longhorns. Wins against Michigan and Oklahoma haven't aged well and they don't have any other big ones.

Clemson at Pittsburgh: Miami (and the ACC as a whole) is hoping for a Clemson loss. That would leave the Hurricanes in the conference championship game playing their way into the playoff (or out of it, as the case may be). Whatever the case, Miami would control its destiny instead of seeing a two-loss Clemson team play SMU.

Utah at Colorado: Utah has the quarterback of the future and could rain on Deion's parade. A nightmare scenario for the Big 12 (14) would be Utah winning this game, then Colorado knocking off BYU in the conference championship.

Virginia at Notre Dame: The only thing the Irish have is running up the score. That's why we watch. Beating Florida State? Big deal. Beating Florida State by nearly 50? Then people pay attention.

Boston College at SMU: The Eagles are playing much better than they were earlier in the season.

Boise State at San Jose State: Another loss for Boise would obliterate the "other" bid. See how quickly that olive branch gets cut off if it has to let Army in the playoff?

Tennessee at Georgia: This is a big one. A loss from Georgia and it is done. A loss for Tennessee would hurt but is not dismissive. The Vols still hold the tiebreaker over Alabama, even though Georgia would hold one over Tennessee.

Kansas at BYU: The Jayhawks are playing like the team we thought they would be in 2024. Better late than never, right? Not if you're one of their remaining opponents. The Big 12 (14) would be shaken by a BYU loss.

We are still college football fans, so we will argue over whatever they tell us to argue about. We could have a clearer picture by next week. It could be even worse. Who knows? Until then, happy arguing!

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