College Football Playoff Bracket Projections: Final Predictions for the 12-Team Field on Selection Sunday

Mike's 2025 college football playoff bracket projections. His final predictions for the 12-team CFP field after Week 15. Sunday, December 7 predictions.

This year was further proof that we don't need more than four teams in a playoff. It's simple. Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas Tech. Done. NY6 bowls still matter. Unfortunately, we can't have nice things anymore because money ruined them.

This wasn't armageddon for the CFP committee, but there are still some decisions that need to be made, and with them, some new precedents set. I'll lay out what the committee should do and what I think they'll do. Unfortunately, they aren't the same thing.

There are going to be some teams that feel slighted this year, just like BYU, Alabama, and South Carolina last year. It's the nature of the beast. When you expand the playoffs, there are a whole lot of teams that look the same, and schedules aren't close enough to balanced enough to make an easy call...except this should be an exceptionally easy year for the CFP. They won't treat it as such, but it should be. I'll explain.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the CFP. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That doesn't mean that all Power 4 conferences are guaranteed a bid.

the half of the country that’s still unaware of the playoff rules are gonna be very shocked tomorrow morning when both Tulane and JMU are in pic.twitter.com/2P7aAP1w0d

— Bordeaux (@bordeauxyoutube) December 7, 2025

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Unlike last season. Not all byes will be given to conference champions. It will be based on rankings, as it should be.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of half-empty, ready-made bowl stadiums. That is the one part about this playoff that I am in favor of.

Three-loss teams vying for a championship? If I wanted that mess, I would watch football on Sundays, and there is a reason why I don't.

The Problems Facing The College Football Playoff Committee

Duke

The most glaring one is having five-loss Duke as the ACC Champion. This is a team that lost to Tulane, Illinois, and Connecticut out of conference. There should be no possible way that Duke gets in.

Both Tulane and James Madison were ranked in the CFP rankings last week. Both teams won their conference championships. Maybe both teams get blown out in the first round. So what? All of the first-round games were blowouts last year, and all involved Power 4 teams.

Tulane and James Madison earned the right to be here. It's not their fault that the nerds in the ACC outsmarted themselves with stupid tiebreakers that allowed a five-loss team in the Conference Championship Game to begin with. They made that bed. They now get to lie in it.

Blowouts in conference championship games

BYU was handled again by Texas Tech. I think BYU still has a strong case, given they lost to the fourth-ranked team on the road and at a "neutral" site. The committee won't see it that way, and that's fine.

If BYU had kept the game close, it would have forced an uncomfortable discussion. BYU proved again that it can't hang with a top-five team. This was their playoff game, without all of the money attached to it.

The bad news for ES(EC)PN is that Alabama got blown out by Georgia. SMU dropped two slots last year for losing a one-score game in the ACC Championship. How far should Alabama fall for losing by 21?

Alabama

Alabama should absolutely not be in the playoffs.

Spare me the “A conference Championship loss shouldn’t hurt you”

If you’re getting beat by 21 points by a playoff team then you’re not a playoff team. pic.twitter.com/OCZSgVHN7L

— College Football Overtime (@CFB_Overtime) December 7, 2025

The Tide finished the season 2-2 with a home loss to Oklahoma and a blowout loss to Georgia. One of those two wins was against an FCS team. The other was against Auburn in a game in which Alabama blew a three-score lead.

To put it mildly, Alabama didn't play well after the Tennessee game. They needed a big comeback to beat a 4-8 South Carolina team. If BYU proved they didn't belong, so did Alabama.

The Conference Championship Games can move you up slots. These shouldn't be no-risk exhibition games if the conferences still insist on having them. This was Alabama's chance to prove it belonged. If they had lost a close game, fine. They hang on to the last at-large slot.

Given the blowout loss and the quality of football shown by the Tide over the last month, they should be out. That's a big problem for ESPN and the CFP.

Greg Sankey

Sankey, the SEC Commissioner (and the person most at fault for the disaster that is college football now), said on TV yesterday that seven SEC teams should be in the CFP. Sounds fair. He is so delusional.

The problem is that he is the most powerful man in college football. He has already threatened to take the SEC and play its own playoff. If the SEC only gets four teams in, he might do it.

Does the CFP committee have the backbone to call his bluff? They did last year by making the right call and leaving out 9-3 Alabama. What happens if they do the right thing once again?

My College Football Playoff as of December 7, 2025

This is how I'd seed the College Football Playoff

using the Committee's 'Top-5 Highest-Ranked Conference Champ' guidelines...

Live now on See Ball Get Ball https://t.co/Zgw3bw79fG pic.twitter.com/XEHkwLRjV2

— David Pollack (@davidpollack47) December 7, 2025

There's a reason why I chose David Pollack's graphic. It's really close to how I would seed the teams. I'll explain below.

These are my picks, the way they should be, not what I think the committee will do. We'll cover that later.

1. Indiana: They understood the assignment and won all of their games.
2. Georgia: SEC Champs. Don't have a bad loss. Blowout win in CCG.
3. Ohio State: Lost a tough conference championship game to the only undefeated team.
4. Texas Tech: Two blowout wins over BYU. Lack of good OOC games leaves them as the last bye.
5. Mississippi: Yes, the CFP dropped them last week, but the win in Norman is the best of the one-loss teams. Also, Tulane is the 11-seed. We don't need a regular-season rematch in the first round of the CFP.
6. Texas A&M: Win over Notre Dame is more impressive than Oregon's over USC.
7. Oregon: The USC win is not a big win. Sorry.
8. Oklahoma: Win in Tuscaloosa is carrying the Sooners.
9. Miami (FL): Head-to-head win over Notre Dame. That should still matter.
10. Notre Dame: Good losses carrying the Irish. I feel the same about their USC win as Oregon's.
11. Tulane: They have been ranked for weeks and beat a ranked team to win the American.
12. James Madison: Duke did the Dukes a solid. There's no way James Madison would have jumped Virginia.

Alabama and BYU had their first-round games today. It's not our fault (or the committee's fault) that they didn't treat them as such. A close loss by one or both teams would open up a whole new discussion. When both get blown out, the decision is simple.

Where was this same angry mob of "don't punish teams for conference championship losses" when USC fell out of the playoff and a team who sat at home snuck in?

2022 USC was a lock for the playoff going into the conference championship game. If they had declined the championship… pic.twitter.com/wz5lZYodsU

— Corbin (@Corbin630) December 7, 2025

USC is just the most recent example. It has happened to Auburn (2017), Colorado (2001), and Oklahoma State (2011), just to name a few. Alabama benefited from two of my examples. Save your pearl-clutching, Alabama fans.

If there is still something riding on the conference championship games, it keeps them interesting. If a team can't be moved down for a poor performance, they are more meaningless than the watered-down regular season.

We've been arguing over Miami and Notre Dame for a while now, and the committee is on record saying that the head-to-head would count if the teams were close enough in the rankings. They are now.

I've been advocating for BYU for a while now. Another big loss to Texas Tech looks bad enough to keep them out. However, I think Texas Tech is easily one of the top two teams in the country. Not everyone shares my sentiment.

What Will the CFP Do?

This committee has been in existence for some time and has undergone several iterations. It isn't very good for the sport to have a room that features six current athletic directors and several other people with clear ties to universities or conferences. In no way is this fair or impartial.

Last year, the committee said that a loss in the CCG wouldn't affect your playoff status. They are on the record as saying the exact opposite this year. Everyone saw the writing on the wall last week when they moved Alabama over Notre Dame for no good reason. It was SEC insurance.

If Alabama had played a close game, it would still be in. I wouldn't even complain much about it, though I still firmly believe that no team deserves three mulligans. Win some damn games.

pic.twitter.com/Jm1HMjv1hQ

— MattBeGreat (@mattbegreatyt) December 6, 2025

I'm old enough to remember when the top two-ranked teams didn't even play each other. That system was still better than this. Of course, the AP Poll used to have prestige, too.

Conference Champions have been repeatedly left out thanks to five major conferences and a four-team playoff. This is my best guess at what the CFP rankings will look like.

1. Indiana. They left no doubt.
2. Georgia. Winning the CCG should still mean something.
3. Ohio State. They earned a bye.
4. Texas Tech. The win over BYU is big, but there is no way that the committee will risk putting Indiana and Ohio State against each other in the second round. I completely agree with this. If those two meet again, it should be for a title.
5. Oregon. If the committee re-evaluates as they said they would, the loss to Indiana is going to look even better. This committee loves those good losses.
6. Mississippi. No one wants to see another Tulane-Ole Miss game in Oxford, but they're going to do it anyway.
7. Texas A&M. Re-ranking will mean nothing since the Aggies played nothing but the bottom of the conference sans Texas.
8. Oklahoma. A home playoff game in the Palace on the Prairie will feed families.
9. Miami (FL). I'll take the committee at its word, saying H2H will matter if the rankings are similar. I have my doubts, though.
10. Notre Dame. The CFP has been high on the Irish all year. There is a world where they let the Irish and Alabama in over Miami, but I'll explain why they won't later.
11. Tulane. Rematch against Ole Miss? Woof.
12. James Madison. The committee has the ACC to blame for this. They know they can't justify Duke, so they'll still let Miami in.

I honestly think the committee has it easier this year. BYU and Alabama suffering blowouts should be good enough to leave them out without much complaining. It also sends the message that conference championship games are still important, especially if you're not already safely in the CFP.

The ACC's tiebreakers are annoying for the committee, but the blowouts give the committee the green light to let 10-2 Miami in as an at-large, so the ACC still gets a bid. Everyone is happy...except Greg Sankey.

The ACC will be REALLY happy. Miami is the team that they wanted anyway. It's the conference's biggest brand and will likely put on the best show.

I hope the committee has enough of a backbone not to capitulate to ESPN and put Alabama in. They proved today that there is no reason for them to be in the CFP.

I have my doubts since this committee has made life harder for itself than it needed to be for much of the season. Will they break that trend and take the easy road this time?

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