High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 11 Lineups Including Jordan Love, Demarcus Robinson, Patrick Mahomes, Tucker Kraft, DeAndre Hopkins, More

November 14, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 11 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Jordan Love, Demarcus Robinson, Patrick Mahomes, Tucker Kraft, DeAndre Hopkins, and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 11.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on their bye, reducing the options available.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 10 started with a bang. We got the fireworks we hoped for between the Bengals and Ravens, combining for 69 points in a thriller that came down the final play. It was very entertaining and great for most fantasy options, excluding Zay Flowers. The rest of the week was a mix of blowouts and low-scoring affairs. Those two teams led the week in points scored.

Neither passing nor rushing was at an elite level. Only three signal-callers passed for more than 300 yards or threw three touchdowns. However, credit goes to Jalen Hurts for throwing and running for two. Similarly, only four tailbacks hit 100 rushing yards, and just two had multiple rushing touchdowns.

Five teams scored 30 points, while four scored fewer than 10. Overall, it was a down week.

• Baltimore Ravens - 35 points scored (1st)
• Philadelphia Eagles - 34 points scored (tied for 2nd)
• Detroit Lions - 26 points scored (9th)
• San Francisco 49ers - 23 points scored (tied for 10th)
• Miami Dolphins -23 points scored (tied for 10th)

Nailing the top two offenses, including the Eagles, who tied the Bengals for second, is a great accomplishment. The rest were in the top 10, including the 49ers, Dolphins, and Lions. It was our best week of the year, going five for five in the top 10.

There was a season-low one special teams and defensive touchdown, which went to the Bills. Thus, it did not impact the teams we chose. It was a successful week that we'll look to repeat with five new offenses for Week 11.

Week 11 Offenses to Target

• • Green Bay Packers
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Los Angeles Rams

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

As predicted, the gap between home and road teams narrowed slightly after the Week 10 slate. Baltimore, Washington, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Arizona did their part for the host squads. Meanwhile, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Cincinnati ensured the traveling teams outscored them. Of the top-10 scoring teams, one is on a bye, five are on the road, and four are at home. This means the road teams could gain more ground.

The difference between the "above average" and "below average" categories in the offensive yards metric remains the largest at 10.07 points. Next are the same categories in the offensive touchdowns metric at 8.68 points. The "average" category in offensive yards is still strong at 22.58. It's a good barometer for targeting offenses in that range.

There are still five teams who have run at least 65.0 plays per week, but there are now three more at 64.0 or higher. In Week 10, 14 teams finished with a minimum of 64 plays. Only seven were below 60. It's a promising sign for fantasy football, especially considering most of those 14 teams were high-powered offenses.

Week 11 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Green Bay Packers

The last time we saw the Packers in action, they struggled against the Lions. However, Jordan Love was banged up, it was a wet, rainy game, and Detroit is arguably the best team in the NFL. They should be healthier off their bye week, setting them up to resume the early season success they had.

They sit ninth in points per game at 25.56, eighth in offensive touchdowns at 2.67, third in offensive yards at 390.56, and 10th in plays per week at 63.44, which includes the games without Love and the one he left early. Other than their plays per game, which are a bit lower, that puts them well over the thresholds for yards and touchdowns.

This week, they travel to Soldier Field, where they have "owned" the Bears for over a decade. Chicago is floundering right now, hot off a brutal loss to the Patriots. Its offense cannot sustain drives or protect the young quarterback. It's a great spot for the Packers to regain their winning form.

The obvious: Josh Jacobs doesn't get discussed among the elite tailbacks, mostly because he's only found the end zone four times. He's totaled at least 90 yards in his past four outings. Jayden Reed remains the most consistent pass-catcher, but it's still been an issue. With just 13 targets in the past three games, his target share isn't nearly what it was last season.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Jordan Love hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 7, so it's easy to forget how fantastic he was before that. Over his first five contests, he threw two touchdowns in every game, including four twice. He's among the top 12.

Player No. 2 - Tucker Kraft has emerged as one of the reliable tight ends, averaging more than five targets per game over his past six. He's also found paydirt five times during that stretch.

Player No. 3 - Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are the most intriguing beyond the primary weapons. Watson is the big-play, boom-bust wideout, while Doubs offers more of a floor, but does have a knack for scoring. Both are flex options.

Offense No. 2 - Buffalo Bills

The Bills rolled the Colts, largely thanks to their defense, which opened the game with a pick-six. They created four turnovers and sacked Joe Flacco four times. They've all but wrapped up another division crown heading into a massive Week 11 tilt.

They've scored 29 points per game (tied for third), 3.2 offensive touchdowns (tied for third), and 343.2 offensive yards (14th) on just 59.1 plays per week. They don't quite hit the mark for yards, but their touchdowns and points are high.

Anyone who has watched football in the past five years has witnessed the classics the Bills versus Chiefs have produced. Whether in the regular season or playoffs, these two always provide an entertaining matchup. The Bills are one of the best-equipped teams to end Kansas City's undefeated streak, especially at home.

These matchups have become more defensive the past couple of times, as evidenced by the 46-point over/under, but that's no reason to panic because the players to target in this offense are clear.

The obvious: Josh Allen has a way of rising to the occasion during big moments. He hasn't always come away with a victory, but it's rarely his fault. With multiple pass-catchers banged up, Khalil Shakir has become a must-start wideout. He's more of a possession receiver with a higher floor but he has a decent ceiling as well. James Cook is always a threat to find the end zone and has shown off his receiving skills recently, averaging four targets per game the past three weeks.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - The starting tight end is a player to look to in an awesome matchup. Dalton Kincaid has a knee injury that could sideline him on Sunday. If he's out, then Dawson Knox becomes a streaming candidate.

UPDATE: Kincaid has been ruled out, so Knox is a streamer.

Offense No. 3 - Kansas City Chiefs

If you don't believe in miracles, you should watch the finishes of the nine wins the Chiefs have this year, punctuated by last week's blocked field goal. The run this team is having is unfathomable. However, it is the two-time defending Super Bowl champ, so it deserves some credit for its winning pedigree.

The Chiefs offense hasn't been on fire like in years past, but they sit 11th in points per game at 24.33, ninth in offensive touchdowns at 2.56, 10th in offensive yards at 346.67, and first in plays per week at 67. They're above the thresholds for plays and touchdowns while generating about three yards per week lower than required. They've also been heating up since acquiring DeAndre Hopkins.

Of course, they are the other half of the matchup against Buffalo, whose number they've had for years. We're taking a shot that this game will go over and that we will get sufficient offensive output from their key weapons.

The obvious: Since the injury to Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce has looked like his old self. He's seen a spike in his target share per game from 14.3% to 30.7%. He's been necessary to the offense in a way he wasn't the past year and a half. Kareem Hunt had a tough day on the ground but made up for it with a season-high 25% target share against the Broncos.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - DeAndre Hopkins has 12 receptions for 142 yards and two scores in the past two weeks. He's quickly moving up the ranks, nearing that top-24 range.

Player No. 2 - Speaking of Hopkins, Patrick Mahomes is a huge beneficiary of that trade. He's back on the map as a top-12 option with the potential for multi-touchdown weeks.

Offense No. 4 - Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota stumbled against the Lions and Rams but crushed the Colts in Week 9. Last week against the lowly Jaguars, the Vikings played some of their worst football while squeaking out a victory. Most of the blame falls on Sam Darnold, who threw three interceptions. Furthermore, they were untimely ones that took points off the board in the red zone. Despite their struggles on offense, the defense forced multiple turnovers, holding Jacksonville to seven points.

They've scored 24.56 points per game (10th), 2.33 offensive touchdowns (tied for 14th), and 343.56 offensive yards (13th) on 61.1 plays per week. Scoring no touchdowns in Week 10 killed their season average. However, they're still near the thresholds for touchdowns and yards with lower plays run because of positive game scripts during their five-game unbeaten streak.

A road date with the Titans should be a get-right spot for this offense. Tennessee does have a competent defense with some quality pieces such as L'Jarius Sneed, but its offense does it no favors. The offense commits turnovers, gives the other team a great field position, and fails to burn time off the clock. It'll be a lopsided affair. Additionally, it has allowed 26.7 points per game, which is fourth most.

The obvious: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and T.J. Hockenson are all in the top 12 at their respective positions. Hockenson saw his target share rise to 24% in Week 10. He's trending toward his typical role.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Jordan Addison remains a boom-bust receiver, especially with Hockenson back on the field. There's not much of a floor, but he can hit a long touchdown any given week and plays in one of the better offenses, so he's worth considering.

Offense No. 5 - Los Angeles Rams

Speaking of disappointing results, the Rams also finished without a trip to the end zone in Week 10. Miami's defense is certainly more legitimate than Jacksonville's, but it's hard to win when you don't score touchdowns. They kicked five field goals while generating 327 yards of offense, so they did move the ball. They just couldn't complete drives.

Even with that poor outing, when all their weapons are healthy, they've scored 21.67 points per game, averaged two offensive touchdowns, and averaged 360 offensive yards. Aside from the absence of touchdowns against Miami, they've looked good.

Similar to Minnesota, they find themselves in a positive situation traveling to New England. The Patriots defense is feisty, but this offense has the pieces to overcome that challenge. They'll also be playing with an edge coming off a home loss with their playoff hopes on the line.

The obvious: Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua form a talented trio of players you want in your lineup weekly. After 10 touchdowns in his first seven games, Williams has been held out of the end zone the past two, but that's likely to change. Kupp and Nacua are solid starts with the nod to Nacua, who has been earning more targets.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Demarcus Robinson looked like an awesome play because he scored in back-to-back weeks. That didn't work out against the Dolphins, but that's because nobody scored. Much like Addison, he's a volatile option you can throw into your flex spot and hope he hits.

Player No. 1 - It was a tumultuous outing for Matthew Stafford. On one hand, he completed 69.6% of his passes for 293 yards. On the other, he was responsible for three turnovers and took four sacks. There's a chance they don't need to stay aggressive if the Pats can't keep pace, but he could also carve them up for a big day. He's a streaming quarterback.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 11. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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