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TourPicks ranks his top-10 players to watch for at the 2024 BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club. Insights on the top-10 golfers for the week and reasons why they are primed to win.
What goes up must, eventually, come down. That's the case for the PGA Tour season and it will be the case for golf balls in the air this week at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorada as it is set to host the BMW Championship. We have a new golf course to study and a field of the 50 best players on the PGA Tour who are looking to secure their spot in next weeks 2024 Tour Championship.
Castle Pines sits at 6,400 feet above sea level and we are likely going to see some of the longest drives of the season take place this week on a golf course that stretches 8,130 yards on the scorecard. It will be the longest course in PGA Tour history by total yardage, but my gut tells me that this caliber of player will have no problem finding an abundance of scoring opportunities.
As always, with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most at Castle Pines. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why I think they will crush it at the BMW Championship
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No. 10 - Billy Horschel
We're at this awkward point in a gruelingly long season where some top-end players have taken some time off and others have experienced waining form as the season has moved along. That's not the case for Billy Horschel who is playing the best golf of his season RIGHT NOW. Whatever he found at The Open Championship has stuck with Horschel when he returned stateside.
Horschel has now recorded three consecutive Top-10 finishes and has produced the best Ballstriking numbers of his season in the process. I trust Horschel as a player that does not shy away when he's in contention and has a history of winning big-time events. I would prefer a different course style for Horschel ordinarily, but he's playing so well at the moment that you cannot ignore him when creating a power rankings list. He's also slowly becoming a player we should all be rooting for.
Billy Horschel calling Keegan Bradley with good news
— Ron Mintz (@MintzGolf) August 19, 2024
No. 9 - Sam Burns
I'm hot on the trail of a Sam Burns win coming soon as I have watched him quietly leave signs that it's almost all there. Since the Canadian Open, Burns has finished Top-15 in five of his last seven events. He's coming off another late Sunday afternoon tee time at the St. Jude Championship where he recorded a Top-5 and had another solid week with hitting his irons, which is always a great sign for Burns.
Sam Burns is strong and he swings hard, averaging 180 ball speed. I think this will be a big advantage at a course like Castle Pines where there does not appear to be much preventing him from hitting a ton of Drivers without too much fear of a misshit. I trust his putter and I trust his ability to close the deal if the spot arrives.
No. 8 - Ludvig Aberg
Have you ever heard of the "Rookie Wall" in football? Well, that's my diagnosis of what we have seen happen to Ludvig Aberg over the past month. His last two finishes were a missed cut at The Open and a T40 in last week's St. Jude, which points to him potentially being worn down by the long season that started with a hefty dose of tournaments in the Fall swing last year for Aberg.
I also don't love that we have seen a noticeable decline in his SG: Off the Tee since the U.S. Open. Now, I bet Aberg to win last week. I think he has all the tools necessary in the bag to completely dismantle Castle Pines Golf Club, but my concerns about the mental side have caused him to move down my list in the power rankings a bit this week.
No. 7 - Tony Finau
At 6,400 ft in elevation, Castle Pines is going to be a major challenge for most caddies and players trying to calculate proper yardages and understand how to play through the peaks and valleys. One of the few who may feel like they have a nice advantage this week is Tony Finau, who grew up playing in Vegas and spends a lot of his time playing courses at high elevations in Utah.
Tony Finau shot an easy 60 (-12) from 8,000+ yards yesterday in Utah 😂
(📸: @tonyfinaugolf) pic.twitter.com/cXmDyRYLLk— Caddie Network (@CaddieNetwork) September 17, 2022
Finau's game has also been trending in a direction that I like to see. He has finished 16th or better in five of his last six tournaments and his iron play has been particularly sharp during the recent stretch of golf. Don't look now, but he also may have gotten into a decent groove with the putter which is always the club that holds Finau back. When the odds dropped for the BMW Championship, Finau was my first bet at 33/1.
No. 6. Hideki Matsuyama
I think Matsuyama has a great advantage at "target golf" courses like TPC Southwind where he was barely able to hold onto victory last week. I think when you remove the difficult demands of precision on courses like Castle Pines, that advantage is somewhat diminished, but out of sheer respect for the great season he has had, Matsuyama holds the #6 spot in my rankings.
His last two results are first and third place. Matsuyama was dominant with his short irons and wedges at the St. Jude Championship, much like he was at Le Golf National for the Olympics where he took home a bronze medal. All signs point to him having his normal caddie back on the bag this week in Colorado. We know that an in-form Matsuyama is still one of the best players in the world and he can go nuclear with his scoring at any given moment.
No. 5 - Viktor Hovland
Last year's FedEx Cup Champion and the reigning BMW Championship winner Viktor Hovland may have gotten his season kickstarted at just the right time. His second-place finish at the St. Jude Championship was shocking as he was fortunate when Matsuyama was crumbling but we should also commend him for his aggressive play and continuing the fight until the very end.
I believe that Castle Pines is a far superior course fit for Hovland as it should be a golf course that emphasizes his skill set perfectly. There is no doubt that 2024 has been a struggle at times and Hovland has been honest about some mistakes he made. I think he's certainly on the right track to being feared week in and week out on the PGA Tour and it's not too late to knock off a big win!
Here's Viktor Hovland on his off-season decision to try to cut the ball more which ultimately led to his swing struggles this year pic.twitter.com/VyZGtg9B1N
— Patrick McDonald (@pmcdonaldCBS) August 13, 2024
No. 4 - Collin Morikawa
He keeps knocking at the door and it feels like his season may be incomplete without getting that victory. He's striking the golf ball beautifully at the moment and he's one of the players this week that has the most to play for. He's been chasing down the Scheffler's and Schauffele's all season long, and he's at risk of starting next week too far from the pack if he doesn't record a really good result at the BMW Championship.
Yes, I am aware that an 8,100-yard golf course does not set up great on paper for Morikawa. That said, I think it effectively is going to play around 7,400 yards due to the elevation and it should leave him plenty of shots from 150-225 yards where Morikawa is undeniably one of the best in the world. He needs this one, badly.
No. 3 - Rory McIlroy
When he goes after it with the Driver, there is nobody that hits the ball further and higher than Rory McIlroy. At first glance, when I looked at some of the flyovers from Castle Pines, I immediately thought about McIlroy and the capability that he leverages his distance without penalty or fear of missing fairways.
That still may be the case, but I honestly just think it feels like McIlroy is ready for this season to be over. He missed the cut at The Open Championship on a great course fit at Royal Troon, then proceeded to play decent at the Olympics before shooting +9 at the St. Jude last week. I want to believe that he still has the ability to just turn it on at any given moment and be the best, but I simply cannot rate him above Schauffele or Scheffler who have been a model of consistency.
No. 2 - Xander Schauffele
He nearly did the unthinkable on Sunday in Memphis. If Xander Schauffele had won the St. Jude Championship, it would have been the largest come-from-behind victory on a Sunday on the PGA Tour in a long time. You never know how different things could have been if that ridiculous chip had dropped for Schauffele late in his round.
Schauffele is in the midst of completing a historically great season and one that included two Major Championships. The only issue is that he did it in 2024 when Scottie Scheffler ruled golf on the planet Earth. The only right way for the Tour Championship to conclude is with a battle between these two players at the top. The separation is immense and Schauffele can close the gap once again with another win if he can dominate at Castle Pines.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
His odds on Friday and Saturday were fluctuating around even money, and it just felt like everyone knew what was coming. The boogie-man himself, Scottie Scheffler, was matriculating his way up the leaderboard and was going to cash in another victory, right? In this rare instance, his A-Game was never quite there and he showed us that human.
He'll have another opportunity this week to prove to us his dominance and it's hard to imagine him letting it slip through his hands twice in two weeks. He's simply the best and deserves the number one spot in this week's power rankings and all future power rankings until somebody shows me that they have his level of ability. It's Scottie's world, and were all just living in it.
Enjoy the BMW Championship and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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