RADIO
Tommy Bell's weekly deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 19 (2024).
Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, which means your fantasy baseball trade deadline is likely very near. As such, we'll try once again to dig deep, maybe even deeper now, to find some pitching help on the waiver wire. Perhaps your league mates are passing these players up due to their lack of name recognition, but in the final stretch of fantasy baseball, name recognition means nothing!
Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!
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Hayden Birdsong, San Francisco Giants
21% Rostered
We'll start this week's column with a bit of an unknown commodity, as Birdsong has just six major league starts under his belt. Even so, he's 3-0 in those starts with a stellar 2.97 ERA, 38 strikeouts through 30.1 innings, and just four homers allowed.
There are two drawbacks to the heavy-strikeout starter. First, he's not currently pitching for the Giants. Yes, that's a bit of a problem. Second, his 4.45 BB/9 rate is a bit high. The good news is NBC Sports has reported that Birdsong is expected to rejoin the Giants rotation "shortly"... Whatever that means. Also, the lack of homers and high strikeout rate helps combat a bit of a command problem, so hopefully he can remain serviceable while he looks to improve that command through the final two months of the season.
The 22-year-old has a simple yet effective arsenal, relying on his curveball and changeup to get strikeouts most of the time. His most impressive performance to date was striking out 12 Rockies at Coors Field while allowing just two runs over six innings. The kid has real stuff.
Hayden Birdsong was absolutely dealing today!
6 IP 2 H 2 R 2 BB 12 K
27 whiffs and 45 CSW%🔥🔥In Coors?! This is a must add if available after this outing👀
pic.twitter.com/KCntgl3PeI— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) July 21, 2024
There's plenty to like about Birdsong so far, and with him set to rejoin the rotation, your chance to pick him up for free is about to expire. If you're looking for cheap strikeouts down the stretch, there might not be a better option on waivers than the right-handed 2022 draft pick with the awesome name: Hayden Birdsong.
Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles
7% Rostered
While he's out on the waiver wire in most Yahoo! fantasy baseball leagues, you might know Rogers' name now thanks to the splash made by the Orioles to acquire the lefty just a few minutes before the official MLB trade deadline. The O's received a lot of media slack for giving up two top prospects for Rogers, who has been just mediocre this season and since entering MLB in 2020, but perhaps Baltimore sees something special in the 26-year-old.
Rogers is just 2-9 starting for a terrible Marlins squad so far this year, but his 4.53 ERA matches up nicely with a 4.58 xFIP thanks to a stable .316 BABIP and 72% LOB rate. His strikeout rate is a bit lower than we'd like at just 7.26 K/9, and he walks a few too many at 3.93 BB/9, but the walks have been improving in his last six starts.
If I had to summarize Rogers in one word, it would simply be "mediocre." He's not doing anything special, his hard-hit percentage and ground-ball rates are fine, and his arsenal is standard with two fastball variations, a slider, and a heavily used changeup. There's nothing wild to write home about, but perhaps the Orioles love his 6-foot-5 frame and extension as a project for their pitching staff.
At the beginning of June, Trevor Rogers had a 5.68 ERA.
Over his last nine starts, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs.
That type of consistency would go for considering what the Orioles have been getting out of their fifth starter over that stretch. pic.twitter.com/2TItRodMwr
— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) July 30, 2024
The most positive aspects of Rogers' game and situation right now are that he's super consistent, he's heading to a team that should give him plenty of run support, the Orioles gave up A LOT for him, and he gets a slight ballpark bump considering how hard it is for right-handed hitters to go yard in Baltimore.
There's nothing super exciting for fantasy baseball here, but if you're lacking innings, ERA, WHIP, and/or overall consistency, I do think we see a slight ratio and wins improvement from Rogers the rest of this season, even though that may not be in the strikeout category.
Bailey Falter, Pittsburgh Pirates
5% Rostered
Lastly, we'll drop a quick note about Falter because there are even MORE pitchers to be tempted by in the Pirates rotation, believe it or not. Falter just came back from a brief stint on the injured list in Houston last night, and he managed to earn the win, going 5.1 innings, allowing one solo homer, striking out three, and not walking anyone.
WELCOME BACK BAILEY FALTER
final line: 5.1 IP 6 H 1 ER 0 BB 3 Ks
THE #FalterFellas HAVE MISSED YOU SO MUCH! #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/K0FpsBX4sE
— nick 🏴☠️ (@ROTYNick) July 31, 2024
Falter's hard-hit rate of 55.6% last night shows that he got a bit lucky, but he's now at a total of 31% over his 18 starts this year, so usually that's a strength of his. Perhaps we could throw IL rust and a strong Astros lineup in as an excuse there. The former Phillies starter also pitched well in Atlanta in late June before his injury in early July.
The southpaw does not get many strikeouts, but he usually steers clear of walks and strikeouts, too. The Pirates have a pitcher-friendly home park for lefties, and Falter's seven quality starts on the year tell us there's some consistency to like about his game as it stands.
Am I begging you to go pick up Falter in any league right now? Absolutely not. But this is an arm to keep an eye on and play the matchups with, especially in deeper leagues. The Pirates have a lot of arms to consider in this ever-evolving rotation, and they traded away Martin Perez and Quinn Priester in part due to their confidence in this 27-year-old lefty. If he can stay healthy, he should continue to find some success in his final 8-10 starts this season.
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