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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 15 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver-wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver-wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend, so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver-wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver-wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver-wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend and deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Joey Loperfido, OF - Houston Astros
When injuries began to strike the Houston Astros outfield, Joey Loperfido was a no-brainer call-up after his performance at Triple-A. His 13 home runs and 33 RBI in just 162 at-bats were among the best in all minor league levels and his .933 OPS in Triple-A showed a promotion was warranted. Since his promotion, he is hitting .293/.349/.418 in 20 games and has shown much of the power/speed combo he displayed in the minor leagues.
I am not trying to sound negative because I like Joey Loperfido, but prior to getting called back up his last 28 days in the minors he had zero HR's, 14 K's, 4 BB, and a .705 OPS. Outside of the game the Astros scored 14 runs he has 1 hit in 6 games.
— Todd the Show (@ToddtheShow) June 29, 2024
The problem with Loperfido is not necessarily his production, or lack thereof (although he does have a WILD 36% strikeout rate and has been ultra-lucky on balls in play). The problem with rostering Loperfido is the roster crunch the Astros are about to face. Chas McCormick recently came back from injury and is playing well. Kyle Tucker is due back from a shin contusion in early July. Yordan Alvarez plays the outfield several times a week. Jake Meyers is the regular center fielder. And super-utility man Mauricio Dubon isn't going anywhere. Oh yes, and Trey Cabbage is also hanging around.
Some of those guys are getting sent to the bench or to Triple-A in favor of Tucker, Meyers, and McCormick -- the primary Houston outfield. Loperfido likely remains as a bench bat. But his days as an everyday starter are likely coming to a close unless there is another injury on this roster.
Byron Buxton, OF - Minnesota Twins
What are the chances Byron Buxton injures himself before the end of this weekend? 10%? 20%? Buxton, who has played in 61 games so far this year, hasn't played more than 92 games in a season since 2017. I fully realize he is on a bender right now that has him at .333/.357/.718 and three home runs over the last 14 days, but some of the production here looks like a mirage. And there will always be the injury threat lurking.
Buxton has a robust .338 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this year, which is the second highest in his career. (Buxton is at .302 average over his 10 seasons.) Combine that luck with a 28% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate, and there could be trouble coming even if Buxton miraculously plays somewhere around 130 games this year. Buxton's barrel rate is also down five percentage points since last season (14.6% to 9.6%), which limits the power he can provide if the batting average falls off at any point.
Mitch Garver, C - Seattle Mariners
A recent power surge for Mitch Garver has generated some buzz for his waiver-wire potential, as has his recent stretch of starts where he has either played catcher or DH in nine of the last 10 games. But are a handful of home runs enough to overcome some massive flaws in his offensive game? I'm here to tell you that the power just might not be worth it because Garver has some big holes in his swing.
133 wRC+ and .799 OPS in June before today. Mitch Garver has arrived. pic.twitter.com/8k2YzBjwzH
— Cam 🔱 (@Camd3n_10) June 25, 2024
Let's start with the most obvious. Garver has a .179 average and a 30% strikeout rate halfway through the season. A strikeout rate that high basically ensures that even a decent batting average for Garver is out of reach. Second, somehow Garver is hitting these home runs despite a spike in ground-ball rate and drop in fly-ball rate this year. His fly-ball rate (43.2%) is Garver's lowest in a full season since 2018. With a home run per fly ball rate two percentage points below his career average, the recent power seems like somewhat of a fluke. Don't overpay for the recent power binge.
Sean Manaea, SP - New York Mets
Even a win against the New York Yankees is tainted significantly by five walks against just three strikeouts in five innings. That's the problem with Manaea this year. His 3.89 ERA is hiding a horrific 4.01 walks per nine innings. His ground-ball rate has also fallen from over 40% last year to just 34% in 2024.
Like many of the other New York Mets pitchers (Jose Quintana and Luis Severino, especially), Manaea has been on a hot streak that has sparked the Mets' recent wins, but underneath the hood lies a potentially explosive starting pitcher.
Sean Manaea strikes out Juan Soto for his 1,000th career strikeout! pic.twitter.com/kRMQ8obvDH
— SNY (@SNYtv) June 26, 2024
The shaky walk numbers, low ground-ball rate, and decreased strikeouts this year tell a story that Manaea should have a higher ERA than he has to his name right now. Statcast says his ERA should be around 4.30. He has also gotten lucky with so few home runs allowed this year. He is only giving up 0.83 home runs per nine when his career rate is 1.20. Be prepared for some regression here soon because more walks plus fewer strikeouts is not a recipe for success.
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