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When we look at the projected fifth starter across 30 MLB teams, it's quite a diverse group ranging from rookies to retreads and everything in between. Some of these pitchers are temporary placeholders for other injured starters, while others stand a better chance of lasting all season if their team has fewer options waiting on the IL or in the minor leagues.
We know a lot of them won't last in the rotation long, but some of these guys are good - or at least COULD be pretty darn good this season and stick around for the long haul.
In this piece, I am going to highlight five starting pitchers who have cracked their teams' rotation out of camp that you should consider drafting in your fantasy baseball league. I have included their current ADP so you can get an idea of where to target them in your drafts with most of these pitchers being widely available in the late rounds. Disclaimer - you won't find Bryan Woo on this list despite being the fifth starter on an incredibly talented young Seattle staff because he's no secret with an ADP of 196. Woo should be drafted in all standard leagues, while some of these other guys could be deep league picks or early-season waiver wire adds.
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Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 240
Detroit may have one of the sneakier good rotations in the American League as Tarik Skubal looks like a Cy Young contender and Jack Flaherty has been nearly unhittable this Spring. Kenta Maeda is a steady veteran in the third slot with the trio of youngsters - Olson, Matt Manning, and Casey Mize battling it out for the last two spots in the rotation.
Reese Olson, Filth. 😷
Watch out for the baby-faced assassin. pic.twitter.com/P75mWfAVRa
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 11, 2024
Manning has the most MLB experience and is penciled in as the fourth starter. But I like Olson quite a bit more for fantasy purposes as he showed some solid strikeout upside last year, striking out 24.4% of the hitters he faced over 103 innings pitched.
Olson finished with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He sits around 95 mph on his four-seamer and sinker and showcased a strong slider that finished with a 36.3% CSW%. He throws a changeup and curveball, too. You don't see young pitchers with such a variety of pitches that often.
He's looked good this Spring, whiffing 14 hitters over 14.2 frames to the tune of a 3.62 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 260
Sanchez is getting a chance to follow up on a very successful debut as a full-time starter in 2023. He made 18 starts for the Phillies and finished with a 3.44 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while striking out nearly a batter per inning.
It was found money for the Phillies as Sanchez had not had that much success in the minors or as a low-leverage reliever in his first two years in the majors. He doesn't throw hard, but had one of the best left-handed changeups in baseball last year (23% SwStr%, 31.2% CSW) and impeccable control (4% BB%).
Some around the industry are expecting some regression this season, but it remains to be seen whether or not he can replicate these numbers. For now, he's getting the ball every fifth day for a contending team with a strong offense to provide run support. He might lack upside, but could be a steady contributor in wins, ERA, and WHIP if he comes anywhere close to what he did last season.
Louie Varland, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 323
You might be living in a cave if you haven't heard any of the hype surrounding Varland this preseason. It looked like Varland was either heading back to the bullpen or Triple-A before the veteran Anthony DeSclafani suffered a setback and will now start the season on the IL.
Varland should now open the year in the rotation and will have a chance to lock up his spot if he can pitch like he has so far this Spring.
Louie Varland delivered another shutdown performance today. His stats this spring:
11.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K 🔥👀
King Louie topped out at 97.1 mph today. His 4-seam had an average velo of 95.5 mph.
Is there any question that he's earned a rotation spot?#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/HYM5vmYnUc
— Talkin' Twins (@TalkinTwins) March 13, 2024
He has looked darn good with some impressive velocity on his fastball and two different speeds of sliders (a cutter/gyro slider at 89 mph and a wider-breaking slider at 83 mph). His control has been solid, too, with just one walk compared to 11 strikeouts.
Last year he finished with a 4.63 ERA, but an xFIP of just 3.67 which suggests he was a bit unlucky on fly balls (his HR/FB% of 25.4% is fluky high). If he can sustain his 25% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate, he could be one of the biggest steals of the draft. The Twins know what they're doing when it comes to pitchers.
Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 354
The cat is slowly starting to get out of the bag here, as Stone has seen his ADP rise quite a bit over the last few weeks. It's still far too low for the potential he possesses, though the team context here is a bit tricky and complicates things a bit.
Coming into last season, Stone was regarded as one of the top Dodger pitching prospects, but he struggled badly in his major league stint, posting a 9.00 ERA across four starts and four relief appearances. It was Bobby Miller, instead, who broke out last year and looked like the best young arm in the storied Dodger franchise.
But Stone looks to have made some adjustments and has looked dominant this Spring, racking up 9 strikeouts across 9.2 innings with a 0.62 WHIP and 0.93 ERA.
Gavin Stone's 8Ks in 3.1 innings. pic.twitter.com/wVPnibMD6o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 18, 2024
His fastball velocity is up a few ticks, which makes his best pitch - his 85 mph changeup - all that much more effective. He's going to get a chance to break camp as the fifth starter but could be a candidate to head back to Triple-A or the bullpen once Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan are healthy. And at some point this Summer, Clayton Kershaw will return as well. The Dodgers have some of the most starting pitching depth in baseball and could go to a 6-man rotation at some point, but Stone is going to have to pitch really well to keep his spot.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 427
I saved the best for last! I kid, but as a Pirates fan, I am really hoping that the youngster Jones has shown enough this Spring to break camp as the fifth starter. He's been nothing short of spectacular.
Jared Jones this spring...
11.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 Kpic.twitter.com/lLMbqUWRnE
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 17, 2024
The Pirates have already sent first-round pick Paul Skenes down to the minors (not sure why, other than they claim he needs some more "seasoning') and they have traditionally been very conservative with young pitchers, not throwing them into the fire too soon. But anyone who thinks that Jones (or Skenes for that matter) aren't better options right now than Marco Gonzales or Martin Perez needs their head examined.
The good news here for Jones is that the Pittsburgh coaching staff has been very impressed with him and vocal about how he is in contention for the final spot in the rotation. Is this the year that the Pirates break with tradition and play all of their best young talent early in the season before they are out of contention? Let's hope so. Even if Jones does get demoted, we could see him and Skenes both back up by May or June at the latest. Both fireballers are too talented to be kept in the minors for long and have both shown that they belong with strong performances this Spring.
Jones isn't a guy to draft in standard-sized leagues, but in deeper formats, I would snag him and see how things play out to the start the season.
Honorable Mentions
Here are a few other pitchers who are set to break camp as the last man in their teams' respective rotations that you can draft late or keep an eye on your watch list (ADP in parentheses).
- DL Hall - Milwaukee Brewers (306)
- Garrett Whitlock - Boston Red Sox (363)
- Reynaldo Lopez - Atlanta Braves (367)
- Tylor Megill - New York Mets (436)
Best of luck this season and with your final drafts over the next week. Man, it's good to have baseball back!
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