BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 65
CURRENT ADP: ~76 overall
ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin had an outstanding first season with his new team in 2023. The 29-year-old went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate in 31 starts and 177 2/3 innings pitched.
Eflin swapped his four-seam fastball for a cutter to go with his sinker and curveball, although the cutter was his least effective pitch. His strikeout rate boost is difficult to explain, as his swinging-strike rates on his three main pitches stayed about the same, yet he got a considerable number of strikeouts with pitches he barely threw, specifically his four-seamer and sweeper.
On the positive side, he did a great job limiting hard contact and keeping the ball out of the air. Eflin is currently being drafted at about pick 76 overall, making him the 18th starting pitcher off the board. His strikeout jump may not persist, but Eflin's strong command should help produce a solid ERA and WHIP, and while the Rays are notorious for having short leashes, Eflin pitched at least six innings in 61 percent of his starts last season.
While he isn't the most exciting starter, he should offer a high floor, particularly at his current ADP.
Ready for Season 2️⃣ of Zach Eflin! pic.twitter.com/4xOwRdMYOC
— Bally Sports Sun: Rays (@BallyRays) March 15, 2024
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