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We are coming to a boiling point in playoff seeding as the final stretch of the regular season approaches. More than ever, as Las Vegas forms its lines for the postseason, it's imperative to future bets that you know which teams belong in the discussion as contenders for the NBA championship.
While current playoff seedings slightly represent the league's hierarchy, a few teams come to mind when indicating which team's regular season success potentially translates to playoff wins and who's solely a regular season product and not a legitimate NBA Finals contender.
As the early-season honeymoon stage fades and the ramp-up to the playoff race heats up, RotoBaller will provide you with a weekly update on who we see as the contenders and pretenders of the league. Without further ado, here are the Week 19 NBA contenders and pretenders.
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Week 19's Pretenders
Dallas Mavericks
- Record: 34-27
- Conference Standing: 8th in Western Conference
Although hindsight is 20/20, dealing with the Dallas Mavericks provides any sound analyst with a surplus in foresight. During the Mavericks' seven-game winning streak, a span which included a win over the Phoenix Suns and a dominant display of offense against the fifth-ranked defensive rating Oklahoma City Thunder, I had a subtle feeling maybe Dallas turned the leaf in light of its trade deadline moves. However, the Mavericks' latest stretch of games pointed out their fraudulence, as their recent matchup vs. the Philadelphia 76ers negated any victory during the aforementioned stretch.
In its healthiest game of the season, Dallas lost at home to Philadelphia without Joel Embiid dominating the paint. Despite Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving scoring a combined 66 points on 47 percent three-point shooting, the Mavericks lost to the Sixers 120-116. Typically, a victory occurs when a team's two best players tally such a scoring combination on efficient shooting splits. Sadly, for Mavericks fans, especially those poor souls who spent a premium dollar for such a bedwetting affair, the rest of the team didn't get the memo as Tim Hardaway Jr. shot an 0-6 from distance, recording an abysmal two points.
While I could dump on Hardaway Jr. for multiple paragraphs, my worries stem more from Dallas's centers. Against the likes of Mo Bamba and Paul Reed, the Mavericks' center depth chart of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford combined for a whopping seven rebounds and five points. In no way should that ever happen. How can you trust Dallas for a long playoff run, knowing its centers crumbled against glorified journeymen?
Whether it's a lack of discipline from the players or even terrible schematics from coaching, the defense is wince-inducing, as the obvious happens to the teetering Mavericks when poorly executed plans fall flat. I know such criticism seems harsh, but the numbers back it up as Dallas ranks last in defensive rating through its previous five games. Only two losses from falling to the dreadful 10-seed in the last Play-in Tournament position, the Mavericks can't allow Max Strus to score 15 points in the last 3:42 of regulation. Most of the baskets came from open three-point shots, but they allowed it. While it's easy to play Monday morning quarterback, a few untimely mistakes made by the Mavericks coaching staff theoretically take a few tweaks to combat.
If the role players the Mavericks mortgaged their future for can't beat a team missing their best player, then how can I expect such a team to beat a championship-caliber squad at its best?
Indiana Pacers
- Record: 34-28
- Conference Standing: 8th in Eastern Conference
Calling the Indiana Pacers anything other than a feel-good story feels wrong. However, for the sake of this exercise, I think it's okay to title one of the most dynamic offenses in the league a pretender. Holding a 3-3 record since the All-Star break signifies the mediocrity of an Eastern Conference eight-seed. Of the three losses in the six-game stretch, the Western Conference's worst San Antonio Spurs and the sloppily rebuilding Toronto Raptors glare off the screen as the worst teams.
I still think the Pacers will push any opponent to a seven-game series, as their head coach, Rick Carlisle, is the ultimate adjustment-maker. Tyrese Haliburton's coming-of-age season will probably end in a fireball of offense at the hands of a superior team. However, the clutch numbers say otherwise, as the Pacers fall below .500 with a 2-3 record in the games qualified in their last 10. Digging deeper, you'll see the -10 plus-minus metric in clutch time, which only magnifies the Pacers' issues on defense.
Indiana is healthy, yet they still can't beat the Spurs. While it's not always best to judge teams for a single game in an 82-game season, excuses only last so long, and ultimately, you are who you are. Simply put, the Pacers' offense is as fun as any team in recent memory, but their defense doesn't fit a contender's repertoire.
Week 19's Contenders
New York Knicks
- Record: 36-25
- Conference Standing: 4th in Eastern Conference
Injuries be damned, the New York Knicks remain contenders in the too-close-for-comfort Eastern Conference. Only three losses separate the Knicks from the eight-seed Pacers, making for a tender situation as the playoff race intensifies. Despite holding a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, the grittiness of the Knicks stands out in the injury-riddled stretch. During the first minute of action in last Sunday's game vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, Jalen Brunson suffered a knee contusion, leaving him inactive for the duration of the contest. Despite having none of its three core players, New York beat Cleveland by nine points.
Beating a talented Cavaliers team, regardless of Donovan Mitchell missing the game due to injury, showcases the most important strength of a contender: playing through adversity. Withstanding injuries to Julius Randle and OG Anunoby is one thing, but to lose the heartbeat and the overall best player of the team, even for a few games, means something, especially considering New York's fragile seeding. Still, with Randle in shootaround and Anunoby cleared for non-contact on-court activity, New York inches closer to healing its roster for the final stretch before the postseason.
Brunson is currently listed as questionable vs. the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday evening, leaving room for optimism the All-Star guard could play. The next three Knicks games feature the Hawks, Orlando Magic, and the Philadelphia 76ers, all winnable contests even if Brunson isn't 100 percent. If the Knicks catch the Cavaliers for the three-seed and possibly overthrow the Milwaukee Bucks as the two-seed, theoretically avoiding the Boston Celtics in the second round, I envision the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Knicks are listing Jalen Brunson (left knee contusion) as questionable for tomorrow’s game vs Atlanta.
It looks like Knicks fans prayers have been answered and Brunson has avoided a serious injury.
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) March 4, 2024
Although it seems as though I'm building a complicated tree to create a path for the Knicks to reach their first Conference Finals since 2000, the aforementioned scenarios are plausible. I refuse to kick dirt on this New York team due to a few injuries.
Denver Nuggets
- Record: 42-19
- Conference Standing: 3rd in Western Conference
Surprise, surprise, the Denver Nuggets make a second appearance on our humble exercise. In its previous five games, Denver was the best team in the Western Conference regarding net rating, with an impressive 13.7 mark. Beating the Los Angeles Lakers 124-114 in their last game, there is no doubt the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray pairing will dominate in the postseason. Combining 59 points and 18 assists, the two-man game of Jokic and Murray makes for a formidable matchup, regardless of the defense.
well ok Nikola Jokic. pic.twitter.com/vyhqvOHo72
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) March 3, 2024
On February 29, the Nuggets beat the reigning Eastern Conference champions, the Miami Heat, with Michael Porter Jr. scoring a game-high 30 points while Jokic "took the night off" with 18 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. Although the Nuggets don't have the best record out west, Oklahoma City is separated by only one loss. The Nuggets can take siege of the Western Conference without breaking a sweat.
I don't see a world in which the Nuggets don't play a role in winning the championship or runner-up in at least the Western Conference. I now consider the Nuggets the gatekeeper to the 2024 Larry O'Brien trophy.
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