AL-Only Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Late-Round Draft Fliers (2024)

February 27, 2024

Jamie Steed looks at four sleepers going in the later rounds of AL-Only fantasy baseball drafts. While they might not be stars, they could certainly be huge assets in 2024 from what is a thin player pool.

No fantasy league is won in the draft, but they can be lost. That's even truer when it comes to AL-only leagues. They are incredibly challenging. They will test your knowledge and fantasy skills. They could also cause you to question why you play this game! But that's just part of the fun.

The thinner player pool makes it even more vital to ensure you don't walk away from the draft with holes in your roster. Deficiencies in your roster will be even more difficult to fix in-season. To help you navigate things, we'll look at four AL players going in the mid to late rounds of fantasy drafts who could provide significantly more value than their Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests.

We'll be using the RotoBaller AL-Only rankings and the overall ADP on NFBC as a guide to where in the draft you will find the players being taken. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X. Without further ado, here are four value plays in AL-Only drafts.

Hunter Renfroe - OF, Kansas City Royals

NL-only RotoBaller Ranking - 173
Overall ADP - 465

Last year was Renfroe's worst full season in the Majors. In 140 games with the Angels and Reds, Renfroe hit .233/.297/.416 with 20 homers, 60 RBI, 60 runs and no stolen bases. Given he's only just turned 32 years old, it's too soon to declare Renfroe as finished. Especially considering he hit 60 homers with a .257/.315/.496 slash line over the prior two seasons. It's fair to believe Renfroe can bounce back from last season's numbers.

Signing with Kansas City might not have been ideal given Kauffman Stadium is one of the worst ballparks for hitting home runs. The Royals ranking 23rd in runs scored (676) last year isn't a positive either. But, he's likely going to play every day given the lack of options the Royals possess. Renfroe's arm will be suited to being their everyday right fielder. That volume has considerable value in AL-Only leagues.

With Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinnie Pasquantino hitting in the heart of the order, there's a decent supporting cast around Renfroe. You could argue that he had Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout in the same lineup last season and struggled. While that may have been the case, even in the worst full season of his career, Renfroe hit 20 homers. That's after averaging 31 homers a season in the previous three full seasons.

ATC projections have Renfroe to hit .244/.306/.437 with 20 homers, 62 RBI, and 57 runs in 116 games. Assuming he plays 140 games again, there's no reason Renfroe can't easily reach 20 homers again. Given where he would be taken in an AL-Only draft (~18th round), you won't find many guys locked in for 20 home runs around that pick. Renfroe may not carry any upside in 2024 but he should be a late power consideration.

Louie Varland - SP, Minnesota Twins

AL-only RotoBaller Ranking - 192
Overall ADP - 352

As things currently stand, Varland might not have a place in the Twins' starting rotation. While they have a solid-looking 1-2-3 punch with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, the remaining two spots aren't exactly locked in. Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani are currently expected to fill out the rotation. Given they have combined for a total of 146.0 IP over the last two seasons, relying on them isn't ideal. Step-up Louie Varland.

If we compare the numbers of Varland, Paddack, and DeSclafani over the last two seasons, we can see that the 26-year-old is deserving of a rotation spot, regardless of health.

If we include the postseason and Minor Leagues, Varland has eclipsed 150.0 IP in each of the last two seasons. Given Paddack was returning from Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2022, it's understandable how few innings he's pitched. It's also a major concern how long Paddack has been on the IL in recent years. Then there's DeSclafani, who has had six separate injury-related IL stints in the last four years.

It's not just the fact his competition hasn't been healthy. Varland's put up solid numbers in the Major League. And his Minor League numbers have been impressive. Across all MiLB levels (319.2 IP), Varland had a 2.96 ERA and 386 Ks. His 7.6% BB% is a concern but he's got nothing else to prove in the Minors and really should slide into the number four spot in the Twins rotation.

Pitching in a relatively weak division, with a solid bullpen and offense supporting him, Varland is in a good place. Varland is currently being drafted as an SP5 in AL-Only drafts. His numbers suggest he can still provide more value than anticipated at that spot. There certainly won't be better options in the subsequent rounds.

Lawrence Butler - OF, Oakland Athletics

AL-only RotoBaller Ranking - 324
Overall ADP - 696

Going into the draft a bit deeper, it isn't even a given that Butler will be drafted in AL-Only leagues. That's partly down to it not being a given he'll make Oakland's Opening Day roster. Following his promotion to the A's in August last year, Butler played 42 games and hit .211/.240/.341 with four homers, 10 RBI, 10 runs, and no stolen bases. Nothing to get excited about, unless we look at his Minor League numbers.

Before his promotion last year, Butler hit .284/.350/.475 in 89 games across Double-A and Triple-A. He had 15 homers, 70 RBI, 67 runs, and 21 steals. If he managed that across a full season in the Majors, he'd be 100% rostered in AL-Only leagues. Butler hit 30 homers and stole 42 bases in 183 games in the two seasons prior (between Low-A and High-A), showing solid power and speed across all levels.

Butler was regarded as one of the A's best prospects before his graduation. On the 20-80 scale, he routinely graded at ~50 for hitting, ~60 for power, and ~50 for speed. They are potential numbers, but given that 50 is 'league average', Butler is someone set to have a productive Major League career. The A's are bereft of options so using one of your last picks on Butler could pay dividends.

Darell Hernaiz - SS, Oakland Athletics

AL-only RotoBaller Ranking - Unranked
Overall ADP - 668

While teammate Butler isn't a sure thing for a starting role on Opening Day, Hernaiz certainly appears to be. The A's don't have a suitable shortstop option on their active roster and Hernaiz turned plenty of heads in the Minor League last season. In 131 games across Double-A and Triple-A, Hernaiz hit .321/.386/.456 with nine homers, 71 RBI, 87 runs, and 13 steals.

Darell Hernaiz has been killing it all season and since joining AAA has a .341/.406/.508 slash.
Strong zone-contact: 86%
Contact: 81%
90th percentile EV: 106 mph
Average EV: 90.5 mph #Athletics
pic.twitter.com/9t45Jm9zd6

— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) August 22, 2023

In four seasons in the Minor Leagues, Hernaiz has hit .291/.357/.418 with 29 homers and 72 stolen bases (359 games). He appears ready to take the next step, even at 22 years old. His ATC projection is a modest one; a .247/.299/.355 slash line with five homers, 33 RBI, 38 runs, and nine stolen bases (92 games). That's understandable given his rookie status.

It wouldn't come as a surprise if he significantly outperformed those numbers. If he continues to develop the way he has throughout his Minor League career, Hernaiz could be a steal in AL-Only leagues. Especially given he's not even 100% drafted. You could do a lot worse than using your last pick of the draft on Hernaiz.

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