DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Genesis Invitational With Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Genesis Invitational

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Genesis Invitational

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 70
Cut: Top 50 and ties (or within 10 shots of the lead)
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners Of The Genesis Invitational

2023	Jon Rahm	-17
2022	Joaquin Niemann	-19
2021	Max Homa	-12
2020	Adam Scott	-11
2019	J.B. Holmes	-14

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2022	+2
2021	+1
2020	+1
2019	+2
2018	+1

 

Riviera Country Club

7,322 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa

Measuring in as a 7,322-yard masterpiece, Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that plays longer than the yardage on the scorecard might indicate. Most of that distance is hidden with the par-five first and driveable par-four 10th playing substantially shorter than your average return on tour. We do see the yardage gets made up quickly on holes two, 12, 15, and 18, four holes that will present some of the more challenging par-four locations on tour when we dive into their 26.3% to 31.9% bogey or higher rates. Still, it is essential to note that this is a track that demands excellence with your long iron proximity.

We see that come to fruition when looking into how 72.7% of second shots occur from 150+ yards, including an 11.8% increase from 150-200. The sticky Kikuyu grass that is used at two locations yearly (here and at Torrey Pines) adds to the chaos for those who miss the fairway, and the potential for a flier on your second shot into these fast Poa greens will result in a GIR percentage roughly eight percent below a standard track.

When we add to the mix undulation, deep bunkering and experience to know where you can lay up, you start to understand why the best in the world show up as the A-list crowd to try and tackle the city built on stars.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Riviera Country Club	PGA Average
Driving Distance	282	283
Driving Accuracy	54%	62%
GIR Percentage	57%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	60%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.62	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (25%)

 

Weighted Tee-To-Green - Last 24 Rounds (25%)

 

Strokes Gained: Average-To-Hard Scoring (10%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Fast Poa (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Short Game (10%)

 

Weighted Proximity 150+ (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outright	Odds	Unit Risk	Potential Win
Viktor Hovland	15	0.47	7.05
Patrick Cantlay	22	0.32	7.04

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

• Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,500) - What else is there to say about Scottie Scheffler that we don't comment on weekly? If the putter works, this is his event to lose.
• Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($11,200) - It was an unexpected result for Rory McIlroy at Pebble Beach. His quick ascension to the top of the leaderboard through most of day one, followed by a subsequent decline from poor shots and penalties, produced a shocking 66th-place finish. While the profile isn't 100% clean, his putting acumen on Poa is a nice upgrade over Scheffler's.
• Favorite GPP Play: Viktor Hovland ($10,000) -I am not so sure the around-the-green sentiment shared by most is as impactful as it seems since if you have the propensity to hit a heightened percentage of greens in regulation or scramble from inside the bunker, it will outweigh a portion of the "poor short-game" concerns. Hovland received a massive boost in my sheet when given that return since his 69.22% GIR rate got boosted by his sixth-place grade from 150+ yards, which gave us one of only three golfers to land inside the top six for weighted proximity from 150+ and expected total driving. The other two were Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young, but it is worth noting that Hovland was the only one from that mix to crack the top 20 for sand save percentage. That could help to clean up some of his short-game woes you will hear about at the Genesis, and I am not convinced the form is as bad as the initial panic after he withdrew from the WM Phoenix to "work on his game."
• Fade: None
• Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($11,500) - Any other answer is for clicks since the win equity marks will favor Scheffler. That said, I think Hovland wins late when Scheffler misses a putt or two.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Collin Morikawa ($9,500) - I rarely find myself wanting to play Collin Morikawa. However, the first-place weighted tee-to-green return for Riviera Country Club over the past 24 rounds is a strong return for a golfer who has some of those Hovland answers from being able to scramble better out of bunkers than he does around the green. I am going to be in at sub-20 percent because of the upside.
• Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($9,300) - Inside the top five of my model for projected scoring on similar courses, fast Poa, and par-four scoring from 450-500 yards. The public dismay has built for him this season, but it is worth noting most of that has to do with the decreased prices in the outright market. It becomes more noticeable when you don't win at 12/1 going rates. We are finally back in a proper zone to find a long-term edge.
• Favorite GPP Play: Let's see where ownership trends over the next few days.
• Fade: None
• Most Likely Winner: Patrick Cantlay ($9,300)

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Adam Scott ($8,200) - Markets have reacted strongly to Adam Scott's current form and course history at Riviera Country Club. I realize the Aussie's popularity will be up on the high-end of the slate, but the projections on these par-four holes should heighten his floor output. Those answers typically provide a better cash-game play than GPP target. 
• Most Upside: Tony Finau ($8,900) - It is never ideal to rank dead last with the flat stick in a field of poor putters over the past 24 rounds. However, my belief has always been that targets like this are only a few putts dropping away from capturing a title as an under-the-radar choice. Finau will come with some risk in GPPs, although it does seem likely he should be a contrarian option.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800) - I've talked a little about my reduction in short-game returns this week, although Fleetwood did rank first in my model for weighted short-game production at Riviera Country Club. Add that to his 21-spot improvement for weighted proximity and top 15 mark for weighted scoring, and you get a golfer who will go overlooked because of his salary point. I will be a buyer at the ownership expectation.
• Fade: Sungjae Im ($8,000) -Three straight finishes for Sungjae Im outside the top-65, including nothing inside the top 30 of this event over the past five years, has me looking the other way at the Genesis Invitational.
• Most Likely Winner: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800)

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I will talk about these players tonight when I do the PGA RotoBaller Show at 6:30 PT

• Safest Play: Byeong Hun An ($7,600)
• Most Upside: Si Woo Kim ($7,600)
• Favorite GPP Play: Beau Hossler ($7,000)
• Fade: All the dark red options will be out.
• Most Likely Winner: Si Woo Kim

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Kurt Kitayama ($6,900)
• Most Upside: Kevin Yu ($6,300)
• Favorite GPP Play: Tom Hoge ($6,700)
• Fade: The names that have dark red across the board will be excluded.
• Most Likely Winner: Tom Hoge ($6,700)

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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