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Today's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel - Chiefs vs. Ravens showdown slate for the AFC Championship (Jan 28, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back and happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We have what should be a very fun matchup in this one as one two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) head to the mid-Atlantic to take on a soon-to-be two-time MVP in Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (14-4). This one should have a lot of fireworks, so let's get right to it.
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL DFS showdown slate on January 28. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Lamar Jackson - QB, $18,900 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,830 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 159 rushing attempts 921 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and six fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 11.72%
I'll start things off with the guy who is most likely going to come away with the MVP award for this season Lamar Jackson. Lamar had been special all season but turned it up last week against the Texans. He completed 16 of his 22 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns while adding 100 yards and two touchdowns on 11 rushing attempts. It'll likely be a tougher matchup for him this week, but my model projects him to throw for 191.32 yards and 1.39 touchdowns while adding 63.39 rushing yards and 0.42 rushing touchdowns.
Isiah Pacheco - RB, $14,100 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 244 rushing attempts, 1,121 rushing yards, 51 targets, 46 receptions, 257 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns, one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -12.01%
I'll take a look at another guy who will look to do most of the work with his legs in Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco has had himself a very solid playoff run while running the ball, amassing 186 rushing yards on 39 rushing attempts with a rushing touchdown in each game. The Chiefs have somewhat of a rushing funnel in this one, given how strong Baltimore's passing defense is. My model projects Pacheco to run for 68.84 yards on 15.62 carries while adding in 2.46 receptions on 3.27 targets for 13.58 yards and 0.35 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Travis Kelce
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $11,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 4,661 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 83 rushing attempts, 449 rushing yards, and three fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 11.72%
I'll take a look at Mahomes next and why not? Sure, I had just mentioned that the Chiefs have somewhat of a rushing funnel here, and you can see that things don't look great on the DVOA side of things for Kansas City. However, at this point, how can you doubt the two-time Super Bowl MVP in the playoffs? I mean, Mahomes has thrown for 477 yards and three touchdowns in his first two playoff games this season. My model has him throwing for just 227.62 yards and 1.17 touchdowns today, but for a guy who seems to always show up when the lights are brightest, I have to back Mahomes here.
Travis Kelce - TE, $9,800 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 137 targets, 105 receptions, 1,130 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: -13.32%
Mahomes will most likely be throwing the ball to his favorite target, Travis Kelce, early and often in this one. Kelce, who has had a quiet 2023 season relative to his standards, has come alive during the playoffs. He's caught 12 of his 16 targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns in the Chiefs' first two playoff games and will look to keep it rolling against this stout Ravens passing defense. My model projects Kelce to catch 5.1 of his 8.06 targets for 62.54 yards and 0.36 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashee Rice
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Justice Hill - RB, $4,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 97 rushing attempts, 453 rushing yards, 41 targets, 30 receptions, 217 receiving yards, four touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 28.03%
I'll take a look at Justice Hill next. If these sites continue to price him as low as they have I will continue to play him. Hill ran the ball 13 times for 66 yards last week and caught both of his two targets for 11 yards. He saw a few red zone opportunities against the Texans last week, and while I have to believe he'll be on the chalkier side in this matchup, I have to back him here. My model projects him to run for 35.36 yards on 7.08 carries while adding in 2.38 receptions on 3.09 targets for 19.02 yards and 0.33 total touchdowns. He projects very similarly to Gus Edwards's fantasy points-wise but offers a nice discount on a slate we'll look to pay up for the big boys.
Rashod Bateman - WR, $3,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 59 targets, 35 receptions, 406 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 15.11%
I'll wrap things up with Rashod Bateman. I played Bateman last week where he delivered a solid albeit not great return on my investment, catching each of his three targets for 39 yards. He draws the best matchup among all Ravens pass-catchers in this one, and he and OBJ should do work out of the slot which has been the "weak point" of the Chiefs' secondary. My model projects Bateman to grab 2.18 receptions on 3.83 targets for 25.21 yards and 0.13 touchdowns. It's not much, but I'll be looking to get creative with the Ravens offense while sticking to the big guns on the Kansas City side of things.
Other Value Plays: Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Watson, Ravens D/ST
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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