RADIO
A stacked field of early commits and late adds are set to take on the 3-course rotation in play this week for The American Express Tournament in La Quinta, California. Once again, players will rotate the first three days between La Quinta Country Club, the Pete Dye Stadium Course, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. For more information on the courses and projected player fits, check out my Rotoballer Course Preview article on Monday.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for The American Express, which provides a first look at the players that I believe are primed to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and of course motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping professional golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support and I hope you can put these rankings into proper use for The American Express.
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#10. Jason Day
There is no better player to start this article off with than the freshly fitted (depending on who you ask), Jason Day. Day is hoping to continue a career resurgence that started last season and has continued with a Top-10 finish at the Sentry following a win in the mixed Grant-Thornton event a few weeks ago. There were encouraging signs at Kapalua, where Day gained nearly +5.5 stroke Tee to Green in his first event of 2024.
Day has been a bit inconsistent since his comeback win at the Byron Nelson in 2023, but is motivated and healthy with hopes of a big season incoming. He finished 18th at this tournament last year and 49th the year prior, but if he can lean on his ability to display accurate driving and a savvy touch around the greens, he could possess the skill set that is rewarded at this course rota.
#9. Justin Thomas
When I initially jotted down by top 10 list when the field was released, Justin Thomas was not a part of it. I've since come around to buying into a potential return to greatness in 2024 for Thomas and there is no doubt Thomas would like nothing more than to get off to a hot start. I am genuinely encouraged and believe that he has fixed the Driver issue off the tee that plagued him a bit last season, Thomas has gained strokes on the field OTT now in twelve consecutive starts.
More than anything, back-to-back top-five finishes should have him believing in HIMSELF again. The talent, tempo, and temperament that any player would envy, Thomas spent the majority of his offseason hard at work dialing in his iron play which was unequivocally his strongest asset when playing his best. He's open to just about anything to resurrect his game, including a radical change in diet moving forward. Long live the man who eats pizza!
Justin Thomas's diet is over: 'If you guys hear of me doing that again, tell me to stop' https://t.co/QPNkPaoaMx pic.twitter.com/WUsCBCcy6D
— Golfweek (@golfweek) November 29, 2023
#8. Sam Burns
You can say what you want about the inconsistencies, but the is only a handful of players that have 5 PGA Tour victories in the last 30 months. Sam Burns is one of them. The game often hits or misses based on the Putter, but after a somewhat disappointing summer for Burns, he rebounded with a solid close to the season with three top-15 finishes in his last 3 tournaments. He's now gained at least a stroke putting in five of his last six tournaments, his best stretch in a year.
Burns has played The American Express four times since 2018, featuring an 11th-place finish last season and T6 in 2019. He is a player I have long trusted with win equity and will likely be the best value on the betting board of any player in my top ten rankings once the odds are released on Monday morning.
#7. Min Woo Lee
The 25-year-old budding superstar from Perth, Australia has taken worldwide golf by storm over the last 6 months. Min Woo Lee has always been blessed with ridiculous talent, but it took a while for that to translate into PGA Tour success. From the start of 2022, he missed nine out of ten cuts before finally bursting onto the scene at the 2023 The PLAYERS where he record a T6 finish.
Min Woo Lee also finished T6 in his lone start on the PGA Tour during the Fall swing at the ZOZO Championship before wrecking shop on the European Tour to end the year. Lee won his home Austailian PGA in November and followed that up with a 3rd place finish at the Australian Open in December. Expectations are high in 2024 for the 34th ranked player in the world, and a freshly secured apparel deal with Lululemon has only added to the hype!
Min Woo Lee is one of the best golfers in the world.
He’s also a social media star, friends with NBA players and - now - a fashion designer.
✍️ @JamiePandaram https://t.co/xJE7XrBAo3
— Courier Mail Sport (@cmail_sport) January 14, 2024
#6. Tony Finau
Tony Finau SHOULD have won the American Express in 2020. It was another Sunday where he could not get a putt to drop, particularly from short distance which has kept him from victory on more than one occasion throughout his career. Finau has tried just about everything with the putter, including his latest "waggle" putting stroke which is a sight to see that he debuted during the Hero World Challenge this December.
While the new stroke has not produced results just yet, The American Express set up is a place where he is as likely to have a positive week with the putter as any stop on Tour. In 2023, he gained +3.2 strokes putting at this tournament, which was his 2nd best performance with the flat stick all season. His underrated ability and touch around the greens and familiarity with the course setup at PGA West should make Finau one of the most likely players to break through at The Amex.
#5. Sungjae Im
Sungjae Im is going to win a golf tournament very soon, and it might just be the American Express this week. He led the field in birdies at the Sentry and set the PGA Tour record for birdies in a 72 hole event with 34! We had been eagerly awaiting a return to prominence for the iron play that had become automatic when he was playing his best. He was able to gain over 3 strokes on approach at Kapalua, his best performance on approach in 10 months.
When you take into account that his game is often best suited on shorter, positional courses that allow you to build on driving accuracy with an emphasis on wedges, it should be no surprise that Im has had success at the American Express in his young career. He has finished no worse than 18th in his last five appearances at the Amex and have four finishes inside the top 12. After what we saw on display at the Sentry, he should be one of the favorites to win.
Sungjae Im finished with 34 birdies & usurps major champions Mark Calcavecchia & Jon Rahm who shared the record of 32 birdies with Australia’s Paul Gow (22years). Awesome effort. pic.twitter.com/YFNld5QClV
— Luke Elvy (@Luke_Elvy) January 7, 2024
#4. Tom Kim
You will be hard-pressed to find a better mid-to-short iron player in the world over the last year than our #4 ranked player, Joohyung Tom Kim. The young superstar has been able to elevate his game in the desert and on Bermuda grass-heavy courses, as each of his 3 wins has come with those caveats.
He was marred by a horrendous putting performance at the Sentry, but he gained nearly 6 strokes putting in the tournament before that en route to a -20 score and win at the Shrines Children’s Open. Kim finished T6 at the Amex last season and this conglomerate of courses seems like the ideal fit for the player Kim has become. He ranks below Tour Average in ball speed and distance, but excels with his iron play and driving accuracy in addition to a volatile putter that pops off the charts when he’s comfortable.
#3. Xander Schauffele
At the Sentry, we witnessed another gutless backdoor Top 10 finish from Schauffele after he striped a long iron within a yard of the hole on 18 for a tap-in eagle. If I sound a bit emotionally scarred, it’s because it was another Sunday where I thought I was sitting pretty with an outright betting ticket and a great chance to win that fell apart on the back nine.
We still cannot ignore a player of Schauffele’s caliber who has managed to finish top 10 in three of the last four tournaments that he has played. The approach play should be a nice differentiator at The Amex and a category where he has been dialed in, nearly 3 strokes per event on approach since the 2023 version of the Amex. It’s safe to say he picked up a few strokes on the field with this miraculous shot that barely cleared the water and hopped in for ALBATROSS!
ALBATROSS FOR XANDER!@XSchauffele holes out from 225 yards to move to 18-under @TheAmexGolf 🔥 pic.twitter.com/TLGu90jdIN
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 22, 2023
#2. Patrick Cantlay
Checking in at #2 on the Power Rankings board this week is Patrick Cantlay. In 2022, Cantlay opened up a huge early lead in what looked like could be a runaway win before falling back on the weekend. The year before in 2021, he stormed and set the course record on Sunday to nearly grab the trophy before finishing 2nd. He’s been primed and ready for a run at the leaderboard late on Sunday and the Amex should be the ideal fit.
Cantlay has been so reliable both Off The Tee and with his iron play for a long time, he has not lost strokes ball-striking at any event in nearly a full calendar year. After a somewhat mediocre summer by his standards, Cantlay really found something at the St. Jude and has not looked back since, averaging +6 strokes Tee to Green in his last 4 tournaments played. Expect to see Cantlay firmly in the #2 spot on the odds board to win this week at the American Express.
#1. Scottie Scheffler
There was only one choice when ranking the #1 overall player, and that choice was Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler has been ranked #1 in the world for the last 34 weeks according to the OWGR and #1 in my brain’s model for the past year. The skill that he has showcased with creativity and surgical precision from Tee to Green has been other-worldly.
Scottie Scheffler's tee to green rankings in his last 17 events.
Bay Hill: 2nd
Players: 1st
Masters: 2nd
Heritage: 5th
Nelson: 2nd
PGA: 1st
Colonial: 1st
Memorial: 1st
U.S. Open: 3rd
Travelers: 2nd
Scottish: 2nd
Open: 3rd
St. Jude: 15th 🫣
BMW: 1st
Tour…— Kyle Porter (@KylePorterCBS) January 8, 2024
The only thing that is clearly holding him back to 5-6 win seasons is the ability to hole putts from 0-15 feet. He’s the only player in the top 10 that loses strokes to the field from every range (0-3 ft., 4-6 ft., 7-10 ft. 11-15 ft.) over the last 50 rounds played. There were however some encouraging signs after the first two days in Kapalua and at the Hero World Challenge where he gained strokes putting.
Scheffler has been working hard with world-renowned putting coach Phil Kenyon on stripping back some bad tendencies and has been using a new Olsen brand blade putter. The issue has been less related to the stroke and more about poor green reading. The Amex on the schedule should hopefully be a welcome site for Team Scottie as he has been a significant gainer on the greens in three of the last 4 seasons at this set of courses.
This guy is too good to have gone over 9 months since a full-field win. Scottie wins The Amex, a bold claim that is heard here first!
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