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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, Fanduel - Bills vs. Dolphins SNF showdown slate Week 18 (Jan 7, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have what could end up being a pretty fun showdown tonight as we have a battle between two AFC East opponents as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (10-6) head south to take on Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (11-5). This is a huge matchup as the winner of this game goes into the playoffs as the AFC East Champion, so let's sit tight and enjoy what should be a fun game.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Dolphins Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on January 7. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Allen - QB, $16,500 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,947 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 96 rushing attempts, 457 rushing yards, 15 rushing touchdowns, and three fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 34.62%
I'll start things out with Josh Allen. The stakes, as far as the regular season goes, don't get much higher than this. I expect the stars to be shining tonight, starting with QB1 for Buffalo. Allen projects to 269.92 passing yards and 2.11 passing touchdowns while adding 28.09 yards and 0.27 touchdowns with his legs. This game has the makings of an all-time shootout, in my opinion, so I'll have a ton of Josh Allen in the 1.5x spots.
Tyreek Hill - WR, $16,800 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Six rushing attempts, 15 rushing yards, 158 targets, 112 receptions, 1,717 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -21.27%
I'll take a look at Tyreek Hill next. It's shaping up to be the Tyreek Hill show tonight as the Dolphins will likely be without Jaylen Waddle in this pivotal matchup. Hill projects to grab 7.46 of his 11.12 targets for 93.65 yards and 0.58 touchdowns tonight. Despite the poor matchup, if Miami is going to move the ball through the air, it's most likely going to go through Tyreek Hill. He's not quite a "lock" in all of my lineups but there won't be many without him.
Other Captains/MVPs: Stefon Diggs, Tua Tagovailoa, Dalton Kincaid
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dalton Kincaid - TE, $6,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 83 targets, 66 receptions, 589 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 15.82%
I'll flip the field and take a look at a Bills pass catcher next with Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid has had a relatively slow couple of weeks since the return of Dawson Knox but got back on track in Week 17 catching four of his seven targets for 87 yards. I'll back him to do well tonight, as he projects to 3.4 receptions on 5.18 targets for 0.28 touchdowns. He's got a strong matchup here no doubt about it, and it's worth noting that the Dolphins allow the sixth-most touchdowns to tight ends over the last four weeks and 0.75 per game.
Raheem Mostert - RB, $7,600 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
UPDATE: Raheem Mostert has officially been ruled out for Week 18 the Bills, making De'Von Achane an RB1 and Jeff Wilson Jr. a decent RB3/FLEX option.
Key Stats
2023 Stats: 209 rushing attempts, 1,012 rushing yards, 32 targets, 25 receptions, 175 receiving yards, 21 touchdowns, and one fumble lost.Projected Rush DVOA: 16.42%
I'll back Raheem Mostert next. This play works particularly well on DraftKings, where he is massively underpriced in this spot, despite being questionable at the time I type this. Mostert projects to 14.8 carries, 58.29 rushing yards, 2.04 receptions, 16.89 receiving yards, and 0.51 touchdowns. The reason I give the edge to Mostert over superstar rookie De'Von Achane is because of the red zone volume as well as Buffalo ranking 9th in passing defense against running backs. It's a pound-the-rock type of game as far as these running backs go, which makes me think we'll see more of Mostert tonight.
Other Flex Options: Tua Tagovailoa, Devon Achane, James Cook
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Khalil Shakir - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 39 targets, 33 receptions, 506 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. Other WR: -9.09%
I'll "stack" pass catchers here with Khalil Shakir as a value play. Shakir doesn't necessarily have great projections in this game, nor does he have a great matchup, but to be fair it is among the best in terms of Buffalo wide receivers. Shakir lines up on the right side of the field on 79.5% of the snaps he plays. Miami ranks eighth-worst in receptions allowed on that side. Shakir projects to 2.52 receptions on 3.64 targets for 35.8 yards and 0.23 touchdowns.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. - WR, $4,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 55 targets, 21 receptions, 272 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 18.33%
I'll wrap things up with Cedrick Wilson Jr. Wilson will likely take over the WR2 role assuming that Jaylen Waddle does sit out of this game. This gives him a positive matchup in terms of DVOA, as shown above. Wilson projects to 1.62 receptions for 3.7 targets for 21.63 yards and 0.1 touchdowns. Truthfully I think his projections are a bit low given the situation, his price, and how I believe this game plays out. I certainly believe he is a quality value option here.
Other Value Options: Bills D/ST, Latavius Murray
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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