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Dan Stephens shares five fantasy baseball picks that will return more value than their early ADPs might suggest heading into 2024 drafts.
One of the more satisfying elements of fantasy baseball is finding players in the middle and late rounds and seeing them turn into big-time producers. Players who miss time in a previous season, unsung producers on bad teams, and platoon bats are often underappreciated and fall in drafts. Not every lottery ticket will be a winner, but having an idea of who is available later in drafts can improve your odds of hitting someone who can contribute to your fantasy team.
In a recent piece, I highlighted five players who I feel are not going to return their value at their current ADP. While I was studying early drafts and searching for potential busts, my eyes were opened to several players who I thought were being selected later than I would have expected.
This article will focus on five players who are being slept on according to their ADP. When you are done reading, you can check out my recent article about potential busts in this year’s field and then find more fantasy baseball advice published daily on RotoBaller.
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Adbert Alzolay (RP), Chicago Cubs
ADP: 132.29
Adbert Alzolay is going higher than what I’d typically call a sleeper, but I wanted to include him because he’s further down the industry’s radar than I expected. His current status as the 17th closer off the board is a reminder that you don’t need to reach for elite closers early in an attempt to compete in the saves category.
The Cubs promoted Alzolay into the closer role after the committee of Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer proved ineffective. The Cubs didn’t have many save opportunities to offer Alzolay after he took over ninth-inning duties in June and he finished with just two in that month. In July and August though, he collected 18 saves, more than any other player in that time frame.
Alzolay missed nearly all of September due to a forearm strain and ended 2023 with two wins, 22 saves, 67 strikeouts, a 2.67 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP across 64.0 innings pitched. Perhaps the depressed counting stats and his absence during the last month of last season have made him something of an afterthought. Based on what he gave us last year, a healthy Alzolay working the ninth all season long will be a valuable selection at his current ADP.
Maikel Garcia (3B), Kansas City Royals
ADP: 235.14
Maikel Garcia had a modest rookie year, not providing much in the way of power but making good contact, scoring runs in a weak lineup, and stealing bases. In 123 games, Garcia hit .272, scored 59 runs, and stole 23 bases. An average launch angle of 6.1 degrees translated to a 48.0% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 3.9%, but his 50.6% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.8 mph contributed to a lot of low line drives that got past infielders for hits.
Presently, Garcia is on a bender in the Venezuelan Winter League, slashing .424/.543/.576 with 30 runs, 21 RBI, and five stolen bases through 29 games played. When the Royals resume play in the spring, Garcia will likely bat lead-off as he did in the majority of his games in 2023. Garcia lacks power, but can help a team’s batting average and he should be able to contribute to the runs category batting ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez.
Gavin Lux (2B), Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 263.00
Last spring, Gavin Lux looked set to take over as the Dodgers starting shortstop in 2023 before an ACL tear in spring training ended his season before it began. Now fully recovered, he is poised once again to step into the role.
In 2022, Lux hit .276 with seven home runs and stole six bases. He also scored 66 runs and drove in 42. He demonstrated good discipline that year, logging a 20.2% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate that contributed to his .346 on-base percentage. Getting on base at a similar clip in 2024 will make him a surprising source of runs even though he will slot into the bottom of the lineup.
Players regularly batting ninth are unappealing in part because they see fewer at-bats throughout a season and therefore contribute less to counting stats. Lux’s unique situation, hitting in front of some combination of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman once the lineup comes around to him, carries enough potential to make taking a shot on him worth it. At the point of the draft where Lux is currently being selected, managers are looking for depth pieces and not regular starters for their rosters anyway.
Bryan Abreu (RP), Houston Astros
ADP: 289.30
A personal habit of mine late in drafts is to snag a reliever or two who might be in line to take over a closer role but in the meantime carry high strikeout potential and can be effective at suppressing my team’s ERA and WHIP. Bryan Abreu is the perfect example of this. In 2023, he had a strikeout rate of 34.8% and held opponents to a batting average of .177. In his 72.0 innings pitched, Abreu recorded three wins, five saves, 100 strikeouts, a 1.75 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP.
Abreu never relieved Ryan Pressly of his duties last season, but after his struggles in 2023, the Astros may have a shorter leash on their aging closer in 2024. Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero figure to be in the mix for a shot at the closer’s role in Houston if a replacement is called for, but neither carries the potential that Abreu does to contribute to other pitching categories.
Abreu’s strikeout potential makes him worth rostering even without a clear path to collecting saves. Relievers with a strikeout rate like his can add to the category incrementally without putting too big of a dent into a team’s season-long innings cap. Picking up Abreu towards the end of a draft could pay huge dividends if the Astros task him to work the ninth inning, but he carries enough standalone value in his current role to warrant a late-round pick.
Matt Wallner (OF), Minnesota Twins
ADP: 386.15
Matt Wallner had a strong rookie season, hitting 14 home runs and slugging .507 in 2023. His 18.8% barrel rate was tops among rookies and second only to that of Shohei Ohtani among all major leaguers. Wallner’s .249 batting average was a drawback but he drew an 11.0% walk rate, buoying his on-base percentage to .370, which was fifth-best among rookies and tied with Christian Yelich for the 15th-highest in the majors.
Aside from the low batting average (Wallner’s zone contact rate was the worst of 2023’s rookie class), he was also plagued with a 31.5% strikeout rate. This was not necessarily a surprise as his rate in the minor leagues is 29.8%, but it is something Wallner must improve to survive at the major league level.
Selecting Wallner this deep in a draft carries little risk if he doesn’t improve the negative aspects of his game. He can be brought off the bench on regular starters’ off days and provide power potential without taking too much of a toll on a fantasy team’s collective batting average. He will probably only be used against right-handed pitching, but that will still provide plenty of opportunities to do some damage and push his counting stats to new heights over a full season.
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