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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Giants vs. Eagles showdown slate for Christmas Week 16 (12/25/23). His Monday afternoon daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday and Merry Christmas, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday showdown article. We have an NFC East showdown as "Tommy Cutlets" and the New York Giants (5-9) head to Lincoln Financial Field to take on Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on December 25. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $16,800 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,335 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 139 rushing attempts, 542 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, and five fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 20.41%
I'll start things off at the forefront of the Eagles' offense with Jalen Hurts. After three straight losses, it's time for the Eagles to turn things around and get going for a potential playoff run. The feeling has to be that it's now or never for Philadelphia, and it all starts with #1. Hurts projects to 245.05 passing yards and 1.51 touchdowns through the air, while adding 39.02 rushing yards on 7.06 carries and 0.66 rushing touchdowns. They'll need to get things going early and often and this is a perfect opportunity to do so.
D'Andre Swift - RB, $13,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 196 rushing attempts, 896 rushing yards, 48 targets, 38 receptions, 209 receiving yards, five touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 13.22%
I'll double up on the Eagles' offense in the 1.5x spot, taking a look at D'Andre Swift next. Swift projects to 73.49 rushing yards on 13.85 rushing attempts, while adding 2.4 receptions on 3.59 targets for 17.59 receiving yards. He projects to 0.57 touchdowns as well. The Eagles will no doubt want to get the run game going, especially against this Giants' defense that ranks 28th in defensive DVOA against the run.
Other Captains/MVPs: A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Tommy Devito
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DFS Flex Plays
Tommy Devito - QB, $9,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,032 passing yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, 35 rushing attempts, 190 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -22.4%
I'll take a look at Tommy DeVito next. DeVito has been a fun story, and we'll see if he can get things going back in the right direction following last week's 177-yard, no-touchdown performance against the Saints. My model projects DeVito to throw for 208.82 yards and 1.35 touchdowns while running for 18.58 yards and 0.16 touchdowns on 4.75 carries. The Eagles have been near the bottom of the league against the pass, ranking 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass. They'll also be without number-one corner Darius Slay for the second straight week.
A.J. Brown - WR, $11,000 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 141 targets, 95 receptions, 1,314 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -13.37%
I'll take a look at a correlation play with A.J. Brown next. Despite the three-game losing streak, Brown has seen his share of volume, logging 36 targets over the last three weeks. Today, he projects to 6.77 receptions on 9.82 targets for 90.13 yards and 0.77 touchdowns. He has the worst matchup between him and DeVonta Smith, but with Smith having some knee issues throughout the week, it's unclear what his role will be. This opens up the door for a huge day for Brown, and while I won't consider him a lock, he'll be in north of 80% of my lineups.
Other Flex Options: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Saquon Barkley
DFS Value Plays
Wan'Dale Robinson - WR, $5,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 56 targets, 46 receptions, 369 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -2.37%
I'll take a look at value plays starting with Wan'Dale Robinson. The Giants' receiver room hasn't had anyone stick out this season, but I think Robinson is the best value here. While the matchup in terms of DVOA isn't great, that's mostly because of Darius Slay, who won't be suiting up for Philly today. It'll be former Giant James Bradberry as CB1 for the Eagles, who's taken a massive step back from his All-Pro form this season. Today, Robinson projects 4.14 receptions on 6.18 targets for 41.63 yards and 0.34 touchdowns.
Boston Scott - RB, $1,400 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16 rushing attempts, 78 rushing yards, five targets, four receptions 52 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 13.22%
This might end up being a fish play, but in a spot like this given his cheap price, I feel like we might as well take a shot and hope for a Christmas miracle, right? In eight games against the Giants, Scott has rushed for 414 yards on 86 carries and scored 10 touchdowns. To put it in perspective, Scott has scored 16 touchdowns in 72 career games. So, that's 62.5% of his touchdowns in 11.1% of his career games, all against the Giants. His projections today are poor; 5.58 rushing yards on 1.23 carries and just 0.05 touchdowns, but again, it's worth a shot.
Other Value Plays: Jake Elliott, Eagles D/ST
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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