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Welcome back, and Merry Christmas (Eve), RotoBallers! We have a total "under" game tonight as the New England Patriots (3-11) head out to the Mile High City to take on Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos (7-7). It looks like offense may be tough to come by here, and we'll see how that affects our lineups.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Patriots vs. Broncos Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on December 24. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Russell Wilson - QB, $17,100 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,832 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 76 rushing attempts, 321 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and five fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 11.81%
I'll start tonight by taking a look at Russell Wilson. The Broncos have a very strong passing funnel in this one, as the Patriots come into this one ranked first in rushing DVOA against, but 21st in passing DVOA against. Wilson projects to 208.2 passing yards and 1.32 touchdowns through the air, as well as 14.22 yards on 4.65 attempts on the ground for 0.15 touchdowns. I don't think this will be a high-scoring affair, but I'll take what I can get and will "let Russ cook".
Ezekiel Elliott - RB, $15,300 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 145 rushing attempts, 522 rushing yards, 45 targets, 36 receptions, 247 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 4.26%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Ezekiel Elliott next. Elliott is the highest-projected player on this slate according to my model, projecting to 92.66 rushing and receiving yards combined as well as 0.65 touchdowns. He projects to 17.2 attempts and 3.69 receptions (4.87 targets), and I simply have to back the floor value here. I think if New England ends up in the end zone, it will be via Elliott. Of course, the Broncos' defense has been playing much better of late, but still ranks 32nd in rushing DVOA against this season.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Mike Gesicki
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DFS Flex Plays
Javonte Williams - RB, $9,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 182 rushing attempts, 677 rushing yards, 43 targets, 34 receptions, 173 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -17.71%
I'll take a look at Javonte Williams next. I mentioned earlier that the Broncos have somewhat of a passing funnel in this game. While that is true, I think the game script will also play a factor here as I expect Denver to play well enough to keep the game out of reach for New England. With that said, we can also expect Williams to be a factor in the passing game against a Patriots' defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against running backs in terms of receiving. Williams projects to 49.18 rushing yards and 19.65 receiving yards on 2.71 receptions (3.35 targets). He also projects 0.51 touchdowns.
Jerry Jeudy - WR, $8,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 70 targets, 45 receptions, 581 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 10.4%
I'll stay on the Broncos side of the field and take a look at Jerry Jeudy next. While Courtland Sutton has seemed to take over the "alpha" role in the receiver room, the difference between his and Jeudy's targets has been pretty marginal. The big difference, of course, has been a lack of finding the end zone. Jeudy has the better matchup here in terms of DVOA, but I'll have a solid split between the two of them. Jeudy projects to 3.64 receptions on 5.73 targets for 46.42 yards and 0.28 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Courtland Sutton, Demario Douglas
DFS Value Plays
DeVante Parker - WR, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 44 targets, 27 receptions, 308 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 23.49%
I'll take a look at DeVante Parker next. Parker is such a fantastic value on this slate, given he's seen at least five targets in each of his last three games. He also has a fantastic matchup here, the second-best matchup of all Patriots' pass-catchers. He projects to 3.17 receptions on 4.53 targets for 48.35 yards and 0.15 touchdowns. Given the price difference between Parker and Demario Douglas, I'll be pretty heavy on Parker on this slate.
Mike Gesicki - TE, $1,600 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 33 targets, 22 receptions, 189 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 9.71%
I'll wrap things up with Mike Gesicki, who is by far the best value on this slate in my opinion. Sure, he's only seen four targets and one reception over the last four weeks. However, Hunter Henry will be out for tonight's showdown, making Gesicki the effective "TE1" for New England. Gesicki projects to 2.78 receptions on 4.1 targets for 31.75 yards and 0.26 touchdowns against this Broncos' defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against tight ends and touchdowns allowed to tight ends. They also rank 31st in receptions and receiving yards allowed per game to the position.
Other Value Options: Samaje Perine, Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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