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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Eagles vs. Seahawks showdown slate for Week 15 (12/18/23). His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article. We have an NFC showdown between two playoff hopefuls as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) head out west to Seattle to take on Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (6-7). Both of these quarterbacks are questionable heading into this game, as Hurts is dealing with an illness and Geno is dealing with a groin injury. That's something to monitor as the day goes on.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Eagles vs. Seahawks NFL DFS showdown slate on December 18. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $17,100 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,192 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 126 rushing attempts, 460 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, and five fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 25.79%
I'll start things off tonight with Jalen Hurts. There's some uncertainty about whether Hurts will play or not tonight as he is currently dealing with an illness. However, I think he'll suit up, and if he does, myself and other Philadelphia fans will be looking for a big bounce-back game. My model projects Hurts to throw for 267 yards and 1.61 touchdowns while adding 39.79 yards and 0.46 touchdowns with his legs. The Eagles as a whole haven't been playing too well over the last few weeks, but I'll look for the passing game to take a step forward against this 27th-ranked Seattle passing defense.
Tyler Lockett - WR, $9,900 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 93 targets, 65 receptions, 711 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 28.36%
There are a lot of matchups on the back end for us to exploit in this game. One of which will be with Tyler Lockett on Seattle's side of the ball. This week, the Eagles' top cornerback Darius Slay underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and won't suit up tonight. That will leave James Bradberry, Kelee Ringo, Eli Ricks, and others to attempt to keep this Seahawks receiving core in check. My model projects Lockett to grab 5.31 of 6.95 targets for 72.34 yards and 0.51 touchdowns. It'll be a tough ask for these guys to stop Lockett and DK Metcalf, but I lean Lockett ever so slightly here.
Other Captains/MVPs: A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Geno Smith
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DFS Flex Plays
Geno Smith - QB, $9,400 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,915 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 30 rushing attempts, 92 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 22.63%
I'll take a look at Geno Smith next. Much like Hurts, there is some uncertainty whether or not Geno Smith will suit up tonight. He's still dealing with a groin injury and according to Jay Glazer on "Fox NFL Sunday" -- Smith is facing an "uphill battle" to play. With that said, my model does have him starting as of now and throwing for 262.25 yards and 1.49 touchdowns. Whether it's Geno or Drew Lock, I'll be backing the quarterback taking on this Eagles secondary, whom I just mentioned is missing their top corner for tonight's matchup.
A.J. Brown - WR, $11,200 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 131 targets, 90 receptions, 1,258 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 30.54%
I'll take a look at A.J. Brown next. Brown doesn't have the best matchup in terms of DVOA here (that belongs to DeVonta Smith at 27.2%). However, where Brown lines up does give him an advantage. Brown lines up in the slot 42.1% of the time. The Seahawks rank first in catches allowed and fourth in yards allowed to receivers in the slot. Brown projects to 6.88 receptions on 9.94 targets tonight for 103.6 yards and 0.76 touchdowns. He's a very solid 1.5x play tonight as well, but I'll want to correlate him with a 1.5x Hurts in 100% of those lineups.
Other Flex Options: DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Walker III
DFS Value Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, $5,600 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 75 targets, 49 receptions, 493 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs Other WR: 9.58%
I'll dive into the (somewhat) value bin here for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has been a favorite of mine in these articles throughout the season. Similar to A.J. Brown, he doesn't have the best matchup (that belongs to Lockett), but lining up in the slot at a 46.2% clip works to his advantage here. The Eagles are tied with Seattle for worst in the league in receptions allowed to receivers that line up in the slot and are also worst in the league in yards allowed to slot receivers. JSN projects 4.29 receptions on 5.91 targets for 46.44 yards and 0.31 touchdowns. He should more than pay off his price in this spot.
Noah Fant - TE, $2,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 32 targets, 24 receptions, 339 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 21.63%
I'll wrap things up here with Noah Fant. Fant is in a very advantageous spot against the Eagles. Their aforementioned 21.63% DVOA against tight ends ranks worst in the league. If you're sensing a common theme here, it makes you think about how bad the Eagles' pass defense is. They rank 19th in receptions allowed, 22nd in receiving yards allowed, and 25th in touchdowns allowed to the position. Fant projects to just 1.78 receptions on 2.69 targets for 20.08 yards tonight, but I can see either him or Colby Parkinson finding the end zone here. I will have shares of both.
Other Value Plays: Jake Elliott, Jason Myers, Colby Parkinson
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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