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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saturday Night Week 15 Broncos vs. Lions showdown slate on 12/16. His Saturday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back and happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We have a matchup between two teams who are going in different directions tonight, as Russell Wilson and the Broncos (7-6) head to Motown to take on Jared Goff and the Lions (9-4).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Broncos vs. Lions NFL DFS showdown slate on December 16. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, $16,600 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 123 targets, 87 receptions, 1,063 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 10.65%
I'll start things off tonight with Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown is primed for a big game as I believe the Lions are really pining for a win here. He projects to 6.95 receptions on 8.69 targets for 79.27 receiving yards and 0.48 touchdowns. He draws a solid matchup, and it'll certainly be a fun one to watch as he'll surely line up against Patrick Surtain II for the majority of the game. I anticipate the Lions taking a step forward offensively after taking two steps back, and he'll be a big part of it.
David Montgomery - RB, $13,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 161 rushing attempts, 770 rushing yards, 18 targets, 12 receptions, 106 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 20.22%
Another guy in the Lions offense that I anticipate taking a step forward here is David Montgomery. Montgomery comes into this one projected to split time with Jahmyr Gibbs, so I'll have quite a bit of exposure to both. Montgomery projects to 69.51 yards on 14.09 carries, while adding 1.7 receptions on 2.49 targets for 16.22 yards and 0.67 total touchdowns. While Denver's defense has taken a big step forward in the second half of the season, they still rank 31st in terms of DVOA against the run, so I'm expecting this rushing attack to have their way in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta
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DFS Flex Plays
Javonte Williams - RB, $10,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 170 rushing attempts, 650 rushing yards, 41 targets, 32 receptions, 180 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -11.44%
I'll flip the field and look at the running back on the Broncos' side of things with Javonte Williams. Williams projects to 49.66 yards on 13.87 carries, as well as 2.42 receptions on 3.46 targets for 17.96 receiving yards. He also projects to 0.51 touchdowns. The Lions' defense has been good against the run, ranking seventh in DVOA, but do struggle against running backs in the passing game, where they rank 25th. I expect Williams to be a large part of the game plan here and see more than enough volume to see a decent amount of exposure in my lineups.
Courtland Sutton - WR, $16,500 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 79 targets, 63 receptions, 699 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 8.72%
I'll stick on Denver's side of the field here with Courtland Sutton. I go in and out of each week noting how I feel like Sutton is one of the most underrated receivers in this league. He's quietly consistent, and tonight I expect him to outperform his projections. He projects to 4.1 receptions on 6.48 targets for 59.86 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. Sutton does most of his work on the left side of the field as well as the slot, both of which Detroit struggles with, ranking in the bottom half of the league.
Other Flex Options: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Russell Wilson
DFS Value Plays
Jameson Williams - WR, $2,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 25 targets, 13 receptions, 195 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 21.8%
I'll take a look at Jameson Williams next. Williams has had a quiet start to his NFL career, not seeing a ton of volume but always a threat to make the big play. I can use that logic to justify playing him in this one, despite his projections being poor: 1.47 receptions on 3.16 targets for 29.76 yards and 0.15 touchdowns. With Patrick Surtain II most likely shadowing Amon-Ra St. Brown for a majority of the game, we could see Williams's breakout game here. Given his price, I think it's a risk worth taking despite his projections.
Samaje Perine - RB, $3,000 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 39 rushing attempts, 182 rushing yards, 44 targets, 40 receptions, 378 receiving yards, one touchdown, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -11.44%
I'll wrap things up with Samaje Perine. I mentioned earlier that the Lions are pretty good against the run but struggle against the running backs in the passing game. This benefits Perine, who only projects to 7.87 rushing yards on 2.2 carries. He does project to 1.69 receptions on 3.03 targets for 12.31 receiving yards. As I mentioned, the Lions rank 25th against running backs in the passing game, and it's worth noting that the Lions' defense projects to a 33.09% pressure rate. I can see a lot of Perine on third downs, and I think he'll more than make up his value in this one.
Other Value Plays: Wil Lutz, Riley Patterson, Lions D/ST
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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