RADIO
Welcome back and happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We have an AFC West Showdown tonight. It's shaping up to be a potentially ugly one tonight, as Easton Stick and the Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) head to Las Vegas to take on Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders (5-8).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chargers vs. Raiders NFL DFS showdown slate on December 14. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Davante Adams - WR, $16,800 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 128 targets, 76 receptions, 867 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 23.94%
I'll start things off tonight with Davante Adams. Adams has been a relatively large topic of discussion this season as it's been pretty clear that he's been frustrated with his situation out in Vegas. With Aidan O'Connell under center, Adams has 45 receptions on 82 targets for 471 yards and a touchdown. This includes an eight-catch-on-13-target performance for 75 yards against the Chargers back on October 1. Tonight, Adams projects to 7.63 receptions on 10.22 targets for 84.99 yards and 0.55 touchdowns. He has one of the best matchups on the slate and I believe he'll be the highest scorer tonight.
Austin Ekeler - RB, $16,500 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 136 rushing attempts, 497 rushing yards, 54 targets, 36 receptions, 344 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and three fumbles lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -11.23%
I'll take a look at Austin Ekeler next. Ekeler has had a very quiet year by his standards, but I'll look for him to bounce back in a pretty big way tonight, particularly in the passing game. The Chargers' offensive line looks to regress in this one, allowing a 34.09% pressure rate. That'll make things difficult for backup quarterback Easton Stick, so I think Ekeler will see a lot of targets out of the backfield against this Raiders defense that ranks 23rd against running backs in the passing game. My model projects Ekeler to log 78.54 yards from scrimmage and 0.64 touchdowns on 12 carries and 4.09 receptions (5.67 targets).
Other Captains/MVPs: Josh Jacobs, Quentin Johnston, Aidan O'Connell
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DFS Flex Plays
Josh Jacobs - RB, $10,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 112 rushing attempts, 429 rushing yards, 31 targets, 24 receptions, 154 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -18.19%
I'll flip the field and look at the Raiders' running game next. I'll start with Josh Jacobs, who, for what it's worth, is questionable heading into tonight's game as he did not practice on Tuesday. If he does play tonight, though, my model projects him to carry the ball 16.15 times for 64.64 yards, as well as catching 2.9 of his 4.54 targets for 22.29 yards. He projects to 0.44 touchdowns. No matter who lines up at tailback for the Raiders tonight, I'll be backing them against this Chargers defense that ranks 22nd in rushing DVOA and 30th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
Quentin Johnston - WR, $16,500 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 49 targets, 29 receptions, 333 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: -11.35%
I'll take a look at Quentin Johnston next. I originally had Keenan Allen chalked up for this spot, but with Allen ruled out on Wednesday for tonight's game, I had to make a quick pivot to Johnston. Johnston won me some nice money the other week (5+ receptions for +640 on FanDuel, no big deal), and he's been coming along lately. Tonight, he projects to 3.96 receptions on 6.56 targets for 52.16 yards and 0.27 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Aidan O'Connell, Jakobi Meyers, Easton Stick
DFS Value Plays
Gerald Everett - TE, $5.200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 44 targets, 34 receptions, 293 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 12.1%
I'll go back to one of my favorite value guys in these showdowns, Gerald Everett. These Thursday Night Football matchups have been a tight end fest over the past few seasons, and it is known that nowadays a tight end is a backup quarterback's best friend. Everett projects to 3.01 receptions on 4.52 targets for 31.48 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. I think he outperforms his projections tonight given what I had just noted above, along with the fact that the Raiders rank 25th in DVOA against tight ends.
Zamir White - RB, $3,000 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20 rushing attempts, 54 rushing yards, six targets, six receptions, 38 receiving yards, one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -13.73%
I'll wrap things up with Zamir White. I mentioned earlier that Josh Jacobs did not practice on Tuesday and is questionable heading into tonight's game. That's the reason I didn't write him up in one of the 1.5x spots and truthfully why I'm considering White here at all. For now, White projects to 5.86 carries for 26.9 yards and 0.6 receptions on 1.91 targets for 4.65 yards. He surprisingly does project to 0.21 touchdowns as well. If Jacobs is ruled out tonight, White becomes a must-play. If Jacobs does suit up, I will still play White, treading lightly, and not playing them in the same lineup. Also, should Jacobs play, I will be fading White on FanDuel.
Other Value Plays: Las Vegas Raiders D/ST, Daniel Carlson, Los Angeles Chargers D/ST, Donald Parham Jr.
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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