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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 7, 2023.
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After a reasonable slate of only eight games on Tuesday, we are back to a monster 13-game slate tonight. This is a weird slate with no games popping on the Heat Map in the late window, and lots of third and fourth lines looking good in the early window. That means we will have lots of value to play with, so it won’t be a struggle to stack some of the more expensive teams on the slate. Find a top line you like, pair it with a value stack, and round it out with a strong goalie...if only it were that easy! Let’s see if we can make it a little easier by finding some stacks we can roll with tonight.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; three of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 142-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
Cyber Week Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code CYBER. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSThis is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Los Angeles Kings (LAK1 - Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe)
If you look at the Heat Map, you’ll see that the Kings are the only team that have both their xGF/60 (expected goals per 60 minutes) and their opponent’s defensive xGA/60 (expected goals allowed per 60 minutes) in blue (the highest rating). That’s a lethal combination and one of the first indicators of a stack we want to pursue on a slate.
What’s most impressive is that LA’s xGF/60 is still in blue despite showing negative regression from how they’d been performing. That tells me the Kings offense is legit, and even if they can’t keep up their near four goals per 60-minute pace, they are still one of the best teams to use tonight.
Montreal has been bad at home defensively, allowing the fourth-most high-danger chances of any team on the slate. When there’s a highly productive offense going up against a defense that can’t handle pressure, it’s a team to attack. The Kings top line should get the most fantasy-friendly defensive matchup, going up against the Montreal third defensive pairing. LA is also cheap enough that you won’t have to use a total punt of a second line, making a more balanced lineup than people who choose to use a more expensive stack.
Boston Bruins (BOS1 - Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk)
One of those expensive stacks that people will flock to is the Boston Bruins' top line. They get a sweet home matchup against the Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo has allowed over three goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play on the road this year, and even if they regress to where the data has them, they’d still be allowing well over two and a half goals per 60 minutes.
Meanwhile, the Bruins have underperformed at home so far this year. They’ve scored fewer than two goals per 60 minutes, but the data says they are due for big-time positive regression. The Bruins have more room to grow than all but two teams on this slate, and Boston has the best matchup of the three teams. David Pastrnak is the key to this Bruins attack, as he’s evolved as a distributor from the wing. Known as a goal-scorer, Pasta has 10 more assists than goals this year, including 11 assists over his last 10 games. He’s been well worth the $9,800 price point you’ll have to pay to lock him into your lineup. Charlie McAvoy is a must-add to this stack, as he man’s the point on the power play with Pastrnak and is one of the better offensive defensemen in the league.
New York Islanders (NYI1 - Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson)
This makes back-to-back games that the Islanders have shown up as a top stack, and rightfully so. They looked strong in their game on Tuesday against the Sharks and get another good matchup tonight at home against the Blue Jackets. The Isles are one of the two teams who have more room to grow than the Bruins, scoring almost a full goal less per 60 minutes at home than the data suggests.
The Blue Jackets are a great opponent, as they’ve allowed 3.31 goals per 60 minutes on the road, and even with regression to expected data, they’d still be allowing over three goals; a number we like to target for our offenses. Adding in Noah Dobson is a must, as he’s probably the second-best offensive option on the Islanders despite being a defender. He contributes with both assists on the power play and a high SABS floor (shots and blocked shots). The Blue Jackets have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to defenders this year, so Dobson is in play even as a one-off or mini-stack with Mathew Barzal.
Others in consideration: DAL2, OTT2, CBJ1, ANH1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Detroit Red Wings (DET3 - David Perron, Andrew Copp, Robby Fabbri)
Patrick Kane will be making his long-awaited debut for the Red Wings tonight, but amidst all the hype, it’s the Wings' third line that has the best matchup on the team. They should get the most ice time with Toronto’s weakest defensive pairing. This isn’t your typical third line either, as Perron and Fabbri have been top-six forwards in their careers.
Fabbri has been particularly hot recently, with three games of 16 or more DraftKings points in his last five outings. San Jose can make any team look good, as they’ve allowed the most high-danger shots on the slate, and even with a bit of positive regression, they would still be allowing a whopping 3.34 goals per 60 minutes on the road. When San Jose is on the slate, we stack against them, but using this line could be a tricky way to do so with many people flocking to Detroit’s top two lines.
Others in consideration: TOR3, TOR4, CBJ2, ANH3, CHC3, PHI3
Top Goalies to Target
Connor Ingram (Arizona Coyotes)
The advanced data is never going to look good for Arizona because of the weaknesses in a couple of their defensive pairings, but thus far that’s only served to raise Connor Ingram’s shot’s faced floor instead of hurting his fantasy production. That shot volume should be there again tonight, as the Coyotes allow 32 shots on goal per game and the Flyers take just shy of 33 shots on goal.
Ingram has been outstanding in net this year, allowing almost a full goal per game less than expected and his save percentage is 16 points higher than the data would suggest. He’s allowing fewer than two goals per game at home this season, averaging over 18 DraftKings points in his eight home starts. At just $7,900, that’s a solid floor to build off of and one we can use in both cash and GPP lineups.
Others in consideration (GPP): Thatcher Demko, Sam Montembeault, Joseph Woll, Alexandar Georgiev, Connor Hellebuyck
Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot, Linus Ullmark
