DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Butterfield Bermuda Championship With Adam Scott, Thomas Detry, Alex Smalley, Alex Noren and More Golf Advice (2023)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Butterfield Bermuda Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Butterfield Bermuda Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Field

Field Size: 132
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

Last Five Winners Of The Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Expected Cut-Line

Port Royal Golf Course

6,828 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bermuda

Ranking as the second shortest venue on the PGA Tour (behind only Pebble Beach), Port Royal Golf Course is positioned on the Atlantic Ocean coastline and experiences a lot of the volatility you might expect because of the weather. I am not going to get overly concerned with pinpointing specific tee times because of the erratic nature of the wind when you play near water. Still, there does seem to be a slight edge for the PM/AM split at this moment if you are close between a decision.

One of the most interesting quirks about the venue is while it plays straightforward with its 6,828-yard measurement, the layout of the land provides a unique contextual experience when we look at the distribution of the yardage. Most of the hidden distance is baked into three of the four par-threes that range between 213 to 235 yards. That group will rank as your three most challenging stops daily because of their 26.3% to 30.8% bogey or worse rate. The dispersion of historical finishes for top-10 producers over the past four seasons has shown that the par threes are the most impactful range to finding high-end success, but that does flip when looking at just cut-makers, suggesting earning shots on the par-fours or fives will be most crucial in making the cut while being able to separate from the pack on par threes will give golfers the push they need to compete for the title.

Ten of the 11 par-fours play under 450 yards, although it is questionable not to include the sole outlier in the 400-450 yard range since it just misses the section at 458. The three par-fives are extremely gettable at 507, 517 and 533, and the par-five seventh accounted for 17% of DK points in 2019, allowing 242 birdies to go along with 25 eagles. If you aren't scoring on these three holes, your weekend will probably get cut short, and despite having one less than your standard Par 72, I will always weigh the category when we are talking about eagle rates ranging between 1.2 to 4.1%.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total Bermuda (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Bermuda Putting + Slow Greens + Soft Greens (15%)

Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (15%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

We have had about six straight events of there not being a fade candidate for me in the $10,000+ section. While I think the group of Adam Scott, Thomas Detry and Brendon Todd are all within consideration because of their top-three profiles for overall and safety, Akshay Bhatia will be the one that I am removing from my player pool early on Monday.

My model believes names like Alex Noren, Ben Griffin, Doug Ghim and Alex Smalley should all be priced ahead of the 21-year-old, making this a section where I would rank Scott, Detry and Todd as the names to consider (in that order) and Bhatia as my fade.

Let's allow ownership to enter the mix before we take a strong stance on the top three choices.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Like the section above, we will need ownership to better decipher most of these names. Luke List will be the option I am removing because of his questionable statistical profile that is being aided by the start of his fall season. My model doesn't love the inflation we have seen for a golfer who ranks 94th on Bermuda courses, but outside of removing Bhatia/List, there are more questions than answers.

My early data would push me toward Alex Noren, Ben Griffin, Taylor Pendrith and Doug Ghim as the names I am most eager to get more information on for the week.

Griffin was the only golfer in this field to rank in the top 10 of all six categories I ran.

Noren has been trending lately, excelling on Bermuda properties in the past. I would still say he is more "Voldemort" than not because of his propensity to wreak havoc on my builds, but there has been a noticeable shift in his game over the last few months.

Pendrith has historically picked apart short courses and places second in this field for strokes gained total over the past 24 rounds.

And Ghim graded number one in my model for expected weighted scoring this week.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I currently only plan to consider four players from this range. Davis Riley and Dylan Wu's ownership will be the telling sign of how I want to move ahead with them, but it is going to mimic my outright card of attempting to get a ton of exposure to Alex Smalley and Brandon Wu above all else.

Smalley is one of my favorite golfers in any range since my model could strongly argue that we are looking at a credible $10,000+ golfer here at $8,900. His top-10 grades for strokes gained total over a two-year duration, strokes gained total on Bermuda, playability on short courses, performance in the wind and expected scoring will make him a legitimate favorite at the reduced price tag. 

Wu was intriguing to me because of a specific blueprint that highlighted a golfer who loved these short, slow Bermuda complexes that will deliver wind in the forecast. I would be surprised if we saw him extremely popular since he hasn't provided a top-30 in nine starts, but I was more intrigued by the six straight made cuts and fit for Port Royal that has witnessed him post back-to-back top-35 showings at the property. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

We can dive deeper into this entire group during my 'Final DraftKings' article.

There is a lot of excellent value to think about in this range. Most of the options listed above will be considered further throughout the week, including a low-owned Andrew Novak, who possesses a volatile profile but has a high ceiling.

However, my favorite golfer will be Troy Merritt. The American has made his past five cuts, delivering two top-10 showings at the Fortinet and Sanderson to begin the year. Merritt's ninth-place grade for weighted ball striking blends well with his fourth-place grade for expected strokes gained total at the venue, giving us a golfer that is likely incorrectly priced in all iterations of the market.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Seung Yul-Noh and David Lingmerth are currently my two favorite options in this range.

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