Today's MLB Betting Picks - Odds, Expert Predictions, and Best Bets (08/31/23)

August 30, 2023

Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 08/31/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.

Unfortunately, the baseball world hits the brakes on Thursday as we have just four games to sort our way through. However, that certainly does not mean there isn't value on the board, so lets make sure we're ready to capitalize!

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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!

Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY (-126)
NYY: Clarke Schmidt| DET: Matt Manning

The Yankees and Tigers conclude a four-game set Thursday afternoon in the Motor City and the series has easily belonged to the visitors to this point.

Indeed, the Bombers are in search of a rare four-game sweep while they've largely done so on the back of the home run ball. It's been a tough offensive season in the Bronx but the Bombers have lived up to their name in this series, slugging eight home runs through the first three games of the series, including at least two in all three contests to this point.

On the flip side, this is a scuffling Tigers offense. The Tigers failed to score more than two runs in each of the series' first three games, continuing what has largely been a season-long struggle at the dish. The Tigers sit in the bottom four in a wealth of offensive categories such as batting average, wOBA, OPS, wRC+, and the most important one, runs scored.

Getting the ball for the Yankees in this is right-hander Clarke Schmidt who has had a solid season. The 27-year-old will enter this one sporting a 4.51 ERA but also a 4.25 FIP and 4.16 SIERA along with a quality 16.2% K-BB%. Schmidt does own a 5.25 ERA on the road this season but his 3.80 FIP and steady 14.8% K-BB% on the road suggest he should see improvement away from Yankee Stadium moving forward.

While Schmidt has been a little unlucky, Tigers right-hander Matt Manning has been on the opposite end of that spectrum. Manning owns a solid 3.93 ERA on the season but also a 4.99 FIP, 5.18 SIERA, and most concerning, a minuscule 9.2% K-BB% on the back of a tiny 15.4% K%. Manning racked up plenty of strikeouts in his minor-league career but has struggled to put hitters away in the big leagues.

We're getting rock-solid odds for the Yankees to complete the sweep Thursday afternoon in Detroit.

Pick: Yankees moneyline (-126, FanDuel sportsbook)

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIA (-174)
MIA: Braxton Garrett | WSH: Joan Adon

We have an NL East tilt on tap as the Washington Nationals look to deliver a blow to the Marlins' playoff hopes.

The Marlins are just well within reach in the NL Wild Card race and they will send left-hander Braxton Garrett to the mound looking to narrow their gap. Garrett has been solid this season with a 3.96 ERA across 26 outings (25 starts) but his 3.67 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, and marvelous 20.5% K-BB% all suggest he's been even better than his surface ERA might suggest.

For whatever reason, the 26-year-old has been far better on the road than at home. Garrett sports a tidy 2.86 ERA on the road this season, and his 2.82 FIP, 2.81 xFIP, and 20.8% K-BB% away from loanDepot Park suggest he has deserved every ounce of those road results.

Getting the nod for the home side is 25-year-old Joan Adon who will be making his seventh appearance and fifth start in the big leagues this season. Adon actually debuted in the 2021 season but was roughed up to the tune of a 7.10 ERA in 14 starts just last season. He sports a 5.25 ERA in 24 innings between the rotation and bullpen this season, although his 4.44 SIERA suggests he should see some improvement. However, he posted a mediocre 4.62 ERA and 4.69 FIP in 17 Triple-A starts this season.

Neither offense has hit well this season but one key here could be the fact the Nationals sport one of the worst bullpens in baseball as their 5.23 reliever ERA sits 28th league-wide. For context, the Marlins sit 17th with a 4.19 ERA from their relief pitching.

The Marlins look like a good bet to win this one and Garrett should hold the Nationals in check to the point where a run line victory seems appropriate.

Pick: Marlins -1.5 run line (-102, FanDuel sportsbook)

Good luck, folks!

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