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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy MLB DFS prop picks for Friday, August 11, 2023. Welcome back to our DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the MLB DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks – whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people – you're just playing against the projections.
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MLB DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
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Javier Baez, 0.5 Singles (LOWER)
Baez and the Tigers face Chris Sale tonight at Fenway. Sale is five and two for the season and has won three of his last outings. He has a 28.5% strikeout rate; in his last outing versus Detroit this year, he struck out seven. Javy "El Mago" Baez hasn't been very magical this season, slashing .223/.262/.322. In three games against Boston this year, he is batting .167/.231/.167; versus the AL East, he has just 11 hits in 66 at-bats. Lower than .05 Singles is the play.
Reid Detmers, 5.5 Strikeouts (LOWER)
Detmers is two and eight for the season, with three losses in the last three games and an 8.61 ERA. Houston has an 18.13% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers; they have a 120 wRC+ for the season. Versus lefties, the 'Stros have three batters with an over .900 OPS, three over 1.0, with a combined 26 homers. They have 5.25 strikeouts per game before the 7th inning this season and 4.27 before the 6th inning. This one looks closer than it could be, but I don't see Detmers going over 5.5 versus the Astros.
Michael Conforto, 0.5 Singles (LOWER)
The San Francisco Giants have lost four of their last five games and are slashing .236/.329/.385 for the season. They have a 72 wRC+ in 2023 and a .101 ISO. In 95 games versus right-handed pitchers, Conforto has just 61 hits. The Rangers' Jon Gray has a 3.72 ERA, and versus right-handed pitchers, the Giants have a 24.80% strikeout rate and are slashing .237/.321/.399. It will be difficult for the Giants and Conforto to do much versus the Texas right-hander tonight in San Francisco.
Underdog Fantasy Pick'em (Lower)
Tarik Skubal, 5.5 Strikeouts (HIGHER)
Skubal has a 3.67 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, and a 31.10% strikeout rate. He is two and one in his last five starts with 27 strikeouts and, for the season, has 5.5 strikeouts per game pitched. The fourth-place Red Sox are slashing .257/.338/.405 versus lefties and have a 73 wRC+ for the season with 8.17 strikeouts per game. Skubal will have no problem going over 5.5 strikeouts tonight in Boston.
Wilmer Flores, 0.5 Singles (HIGHER)
Flores is slashing .307/.365/.545 for the season with a .239 ISO. In the last 30 days, he has a .380 batting average with 30 hits, seven home runs, 15 RBI, and 14 runs. His slash line is .375/.426/.792. In one of my favorite "don't overthink it" spots of the day, Flores will go over 0.5 singles versus Jon Gray tonight in San Francisco.
Luis Castillo, 2.0 Earned Runs Allowed (HIGHER)
Castillo has a 28% strikeout rate this season but is facing an Orioles team with a 110 wRC+ and a 21% K rate versus left-handed pitchers. The O's are in sixth place this year in runs scored, and in four games versus the AL East, Castillo is 0-2 with a 6.0 ERA. Versus the Orioles, Castillo has a 14.3% K rate and an xSLG of .543. Things may not go as expected for the Mariners tonight in Baltimore, and the O's should get more than two earned runs versus Castillo.
Underdog Fantasy Pick'em (Higher)
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