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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/9/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers!
Woof... That was not the Tuesday evening I was hoping for. None of the Cubs, Marlins, Reds, or Mets could score enough runs for us to hit either one of our First Five Overs from Tuesday. I still love the spots, and while it may not be worth anything of financial worth, it was good to see those games STAY low scoring after the five innings were over. That tells me that my evaluation of the bullpens were correct, and that targeting the first five frames was the correct move, we just had too many lineouts and not enough gap shots. It happens... Time to move on to Wednesday!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Athletics
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX (-298)
TEX: Jordan Montgomery | OAK: Austin Pruitt / Freddy Tarnok
We'll start with one of three matinee games on Wednesday afternoon. The A's will host the Rangers at 12:37 local time, and the weather will be perfect for hitting, with 68% humidity and wind blowing out to right center field at 10 mph. Typically we have no issue with the Rangers offense scoring runs against anyone, and that won't change here, but perhaps we can get some help from the Oakland offense today too.
An opener strategy from the A's should result in one or two innings from Austin Pruitt followed by two or three innings from Freddy Tarnok before they turn it over to the worst bullpen in the league. Pruitt has been very strong out of the 'pen of late, but he hasn't started a game since July 15th. He should be able to keep the train on the tracks, but he doesn't miss many bats and there's potential for some early runs here for Texas, which would be a bonus. Tarnok, on the other hand, has been downright dreadful. The 24-year-old has a 7.00 xFIP in his 10.2 innings of work this year so far, including four homers and nine walks to his 10 strikeouts. Yes... Bad. The Rangers should score early and often, and they will get plenty of opportunities to pad their lead later on. If you like Rangers Team Total over 5.5 or Rangers -1.5 as well, I wouldn't blame you in the slightest.
The key for the Over 8.5 play will be getting at least three runs from the Athletics. Texas acquired the southpaw Montgomery at the trade deadline, and while he was strong in his debut for them against the Marlins, he's also starting to show a bit of a home run trend of late, allowing a long ball in three straight starts and in five of his last seven outings. Pair that with a 2.55 BB/9 rate and a surprisingly low 8.08 K/9 rate, and there will be chances for Oakland to put up a few runs of their own. Montgomery's wOBA jumps from .296 to .314 when you put him up against right-handed hitters, and he's allowed 12 of his 13 homers to righty hitters. The A's can throw out up to eight decent right-handed batters in their order if they'd like, so I do believe that three runs is attainable for the league's worst team at home on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: Rangers/Athletics OVER 8.5 (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Red Sox
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: BOS (-225)
KC: Jordan Lyles | BOS: Nick Pivetta
It's not often I look to back a home team on the run line, but this spot seems too valuable to pass up. There should be plenty of runs scored on a warm, breezy night in Boston, so the key for pitchers will be to miss bats and avoid crooked innings. That's something Pivetta can do with ease against the 27th ranked offense against right-handed pitchers. If the 29-year-old can avoid a big game from Bobby Witt Jr., he should be able to coast through the rest of this lineup for six innings and hand the ball over to a fresh, strong bullpen at Fenway.
Meanwhile, the 32-year-old Lyles is the perfect target for this Boston offense that ranks 8th in the league in wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers. Lyles strikes out less than seven batters per nine innings, and he's allowed 13 earned runs on three homers over his last three starts (15.1 innings). The Royals should then turn to some problematic bullpen arms, assuming they are down by a few runs when the fifth inning comes to a close, which is a huge chance for the Red Sox to extend this lead even further at home. All signs point to a four to five run victory here for the home team to take a 2-1 lead in this four-game series.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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