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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/27/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
You don't see many five-game MLB slates throughout the MLB regular season but that is indeed the case on this Thursday, July 27 slate! In fact, 40% of today's MLB action is dedicated to the Tigers and Angels who will play a doubleheader after rain forced a postponement of Wednesday night's affair.
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYM (-200)
WSH: Josiah Gray| NYM: Kodai Senga
It's an NL East tilt tonight at Citi Field as the New York Mets play host to the Washington Nationals with the Mets desperately in need of wins over the next couple of months.
Getting the ball for the Nationals is 2023 All-Star Josiah Gray who has surpassed expectations this season. The 25-year-old has worked to a healthy 3.45 ERA across 20 starts but that's about as good as his numbers get. Gray is also the owner of a 4.77 FIP and 4.92 SIERA while his 9.6% K-BB% leaves plenty to be desired. He hasn't missed many bats while his control is subpar.
The Mets will counter with rookie right-hander Kodai Senga who has been as advertised in his first season in North America. The 30-year-old has tossed a 3.27 ERA across 18 outings on the season while he also sports a 3.81 FIP and 4.01 SIERA that call for some regression as well. While he too hasn't displayed pinpoint control with an elevated 11.9% BB%, Senga has also punched out a hefty 29.7% of the batters he has faced this season.
The offensive advantage goes to the Mets in this one. They haven't been anything special at the plate this season as they sit 14th with a .319 wOBA against right-handed pitching but the Nationals fall to 22nd with a .304 wOBA against righties. Washington's bats have perked up some on the road where they own a .315 wOBA while the Mets slip to 26th with a .304 wOBA at Citi Field this season.
Looking at the back end of things, the Nationals' bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this season. While the Mets sport a bullpen ERA of 4.22 that ranks 21st, Washington plummets all the way to 29th with an ugly 5.43 ERA on the season.
Simply put, this is one the Mets need to have. They have a guy who has been their best pitcher this season toeing the rubber while it appears Gray is due for some notable regression moving forward. Add in a weak Nationals offense and a bullpen that has struggled mightily and I am comfortable riding with the home side on the run line tonight.
Pick: Mets run line (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS: (-115)
CLE: Tanner Bibee | CWS: Dylan Cease
We'll target another divisional matchup with today's free MLB picks as the Cleveland Guardians take on their AL Central rival Chicago White Sox tonight in the Windy City.
The Guardians send rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee to the bump and he's been everything and more for the team this season. The 24-year-old has turned in a stellar 3.04 ERA across 15 starts and while his 3.53 FIP is solid his SIERA does slip to 4.19. While he owns a solid 16.2% K-BB%, Bibee hasn't been at his best on the road where he owns a 4.38 ERA, 4.77 FIP, and a 1.46 HR/9 versus a 0.20 mark at home.
The first major domino to fall this trade season was White SOx righty Lucas Giolito who was traded to the Angels on Wednesday night. Another rumored trade target is on the mound for the White Sox tonight as Dylan Cease gets the ball, perhaps for his final start in White Sox colors.
The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up hasn't had his best season, tossing a 4.04 ERA in 21 starts versus a 2.20 mark last season, but Cease also sports a 3.63 FIP and 3.93 SIERA. He's brought his walk rate down to 9.6% while striking out 28% of the batters he has faced. He's also been on a mission over his last two starts, tossing 11 innings of two-run ball with just six hits allowed and 15 strikeouts in that time.
The offensive advantage goes to the Guardians in this one, even while both groups have largely scuffled at the dish. While the White Sox have been brutal with a 27th-ranked .292 wOBA off righties, the Guardians haven't been much better with a 21st-ranked .308 wOBA versus right-handed pitching.
The biggest gap in this matchup is the bullpen. The Guardians have dominated late in ball games, posting a 3.54 bullpen ERA that is tied with the Braves for second-best in baseball. At the same time, the White Sox fall all the way to 25th with a 4.67 ERA out of the bullpen. The Guardians slip to 13th with a 4.03 FIP from their bullpen but the Sox still sit 27th with a 4.54 bullpen FIP. This gives the first five innings some importance.
I like the White Sox to win the first half of this one. Cease has been bumping up his trade value with back-to-back dominant efforts while Bibee should see some regression moving forward and he has struggled on the road. If this is indeed his final start for the White Sox, look for the Cease to go out with a bang.
Pick: White Sox F5 (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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