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Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.
Most fantasy managers are familiar with WHIP, as it is usually a pitching category in roto leagues and has an impact on points league totals. However, WHIP+ is a less-used metric for player analysis. Any metric with a + at the end indicates that it is normalized around league-average values and set at 100. For WHIP+, a value lower than 100 indicates the pitcher's WHIP is that many percent below the league average, and vice versa.
While fantasy managers typically look at absolute values, considering how players are doing in relation to the rest of the league can be insightful. This exercise can be particularly useful for such a key fantasy metric. As the trade deadline approaches for the MLB and fantasy leagues, determining buy-low and sell-high candidates is vital. Let's see how WHIP+ can help us!
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WHIP+ Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 23, 2023.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles
7-5, 3.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 80 WHIP+
Tyler Wells has been one of the players behind the O's this season, compiling a 7-5 record with a 3.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate over 106 2/3 innings pitched. His WHIP has truly been impressive, coming in at 20 percent below the league average. Is Wells a fantasy pitcher to rely on in the second half or could he be a sell-high candidate?
Wells' ability to avoid free passes is the first major component of his low WHIP. His 6.2% walk rate is in the 83rd percentile of baseball, which provides a number of benefits.
Digging into his batted-ball profile, Wells has allowed just under league-average hard contact but is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a 20.9-degree launch angle. His 14.2% HR/FB rate isn't all that high because he allows so many fly balls, but his 1.86 HR/9 rate tells the story.
Digging deeper, there are several signs that Wells has gotten a bit lucky. His .214 BABIP is quite low and, combined with his low walk rate, means that he doesn't usually have much traffic on the base paths. What that means for his home runs is that they aren't all that damaging, as 15 of his 22 HRs have been solo shots. Again, he has done a good job limiting baserunners, but this still seems like a skewed percentage of solo HRs.
It is tough to come to a definitive decision on Wells. On one hand, he has pitched well for one of baseball's best teams while doing a great job of limiting baserunners. On the other hand, he allows a lot of contact in the air and it has led to a lot of home runs. While most of these have only been solo shots, I am wary of this trend normalizing over time.
I would consider Wells to be a sell-high candidate, but I would not settle for anything other than a strong offer. Some players routinely defy what underlying numbers may suggest, and Wells may be able to continue giving up relatively harmless home runs if he continues producing his elite WHIP.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
8-5, 3.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 81 WHIP+
Logan Gilbert showed his potential as a fantasy asset with a strong 2022 performance and has followed it up pretty well to this point. The 26-year-old has put together a 3.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate through 20 starts. His WHIP+ is currently the sixth-best among qualified starters. Can he continue his success through the second half?
Gilbert's 4.4% walk rate is even better than Wells' and is an elite mark, falling in the top 96 percent of baseball. His batted-ball profile isn't great, with an exit velocity and hard-hit-rate in the 26th and 37th percentile of baseball, respectively. His 13.2-degree launch angle isn't ideal, but it isn't nearly as worrisome as Wells'.
In terms of his pitch arsenal, Gilbert does a good job implementing a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball has gotten lackluster results, but his other three pitches have yielded strong results. It is worth noting that his slider and curveball locations have been in the middle of the plate too frequently and his expected results on those pitches suggest they should be punished more than they have.
However, his 3.74 SIERA is actually a bit lower than his ERA. This seems to indicate that, while those pitches may be overperforming, his overall performance is about what would be expected given his batted-ball profile.
There are some interesting things going on under the hood for Gilbert, but it does seem that his results to this point have been about expected. His pitch location and batted-ball profile support his higher ERA compared to last season, but his WHIP seems legit. I would treat Gilbert as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the rest of the season.
WHIP+ Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 23, 2023.
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
7-6, 4.39 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 115 WHIP+
Jack Flaherty has had a rollercoaster of a season to this point, much to the frustration of fantasy managers. He currently has a middling 7-5 record with a 4.39 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate in 19 starts, but his 1.53 WHIP and 115 WHIP+ are tied for the highest among qualified starters. Could Flaherty end up being a useful fantasy option in the second half?
There are a few things that stand out about Flaherty's numbers under the hood. First, his batted-ball profile has actually been above average. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the top 25 percent of baseball with a 10.9-degree launch angle. Despite this, he has incurred a career-high .343 BABIP, which is much higher than his career .273 average.
Second, Flaherty has always had walk issues and they have been particularly bad over the past several seasons. His career walk rate is 9.2%, but he has posted 13.2% and 11.3% marks over the past two seasons, respectively.
It is worth noting that Flaherty has pitched better lately with a 3.86 ERA in eight starts since the beginning of June. However, his BABIP and WHIP in those starts are identical to or worse than his season numbers with a .360 BABIP and 1.52 WHIP.
Things just haven't clicked for Flaherty this season. While his batted-ball profile has been fine, he has gotten punished on balls in play and has put too many runners on for free. Flaherty leaves the door open for potential blowups by allowing so many runners throughout his starts. This trend has continued even as he has pitched better.
Flaherty's name has come up in trade talks and a change of scenery could potentially help with his performance. However, I am not willing to accept his high level of risk on my fantasy teams whether he stays with the Cardinals or not.
Kyle Gibson, Baltimore Orioles
9-6, 4.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 105 WHIP+
Kyle Gibson may not be the most exciting fantasy player, but he has put together a stream-worthy season to this point, particularly in points leagues. He has compiled a 9-6 record with 10 quality starts through 21 starts with the O's and has averaged almost six innings per start. Obviously, his 4.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 19% strikeout rate are not what fantasy managers would seek out. Could he be a sneaky fantasy option down the stretch?
Gibson is not an overpowering pitcher and his approach doesn't lend itself to gaudy counting stats. He allows a lot of hard contact but is a groundball pitcher, relying primarily on pitches with downward movement. His 9.1-degree launch angle is pretty good. While he gets a lot of groundballs at 47.7%, the hard contact has still resulted in a higher .313 BABIP.
In terms of walks, his 7.7% walk rate is actually slightly below the league average. However, his strikeout rate and WHIP will tend to be a bit lower and higher, respectively, because he can't overpower pitchers in the zone. He has to hit his spots to induce the desired contact, leaving a smaller margin of error.
Gibson's overall profile does not lend itself to roto leagues, as he has a low strikeout upside with a tendency for a higher WHIP. However, his ability to turn in quality starts and the strong offense behind him make him a worthwhile fantasy consideration in points leagues, particularly in favorable matchups.
Gibson's peripherals aren't the prettiest, but players can still provide fantasy value depending on league rules. He is a viable fantasy option in any points leagues where wins are valued, especially leagues that also award points for quality starts.
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