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Some people play in standard (non-PPR) fantasy football leagues, some play in half-PPR leagues, and some play in full-PPR leagues. Each type has its advantages and disadvantages, but what's more important is identifying the players who best fit each type of league.
Deep-ball specialists like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Christian Watson have greater value in standard leagues than in PPR leagues. On the other hand, the following four players that will be mentioned in the article should have more value in PPR leagues than in standard leagues.
Once you have a solid understanding of your league's specific settings, you can begin targeting the players you want in the draft. With that in mind, here are four players you should prioritize in PPR leagues for the 2023 season.
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Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Allen had an average depth of target (aDot) of just 8.5 yards last season. According to PlayerProfiler, that ranked 83rd among all wide receivers. In the previous year, his aDot was only 8.9 yards. Additionally, he has averaged fewer than one deep target per game in the last two seasons. Allen is the epitome of a slot receiver in today's NFL. He primarily runs short routes, receives a high volume of targets, and doesn't score touchdowns in abundance. In fact, he has scored more than six touchdowns in only two of his 10 NFL seasons.
During Weeks 12-18 of the previous season when Allen was healthy and played a full complement of snaps, he ranked as the WR3 in PPR formats on a per-game basis. In standard leagues, he was the WR6 during that stretch. It's a commendable performance, but clearly, there is added value to having Allen on your roster in PPR formats. In the last three seasons when catching passes from Justin Herbert, Allen has seen over 10 targets in 24 out of 35 games where he played over 75% of the snaps (68.6%).
Despite an increase in his yards per route run (YPRR) in 2022, it's reasonable to expect Allen to continue running short and intermediate routes in the Chargers' offense this season. This is especially true with the arrival of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who is likely to play on the outside and serve as a deep threat alongside Mike Williams.
This situation could potentially lower Allen's YPRR in 2023, making him even more appealing in PPR formats. A lower YPRR would resemble his performance in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, where there was a five-ranking difference between his finishes in PPR and standard leagues. In the previous season, with a higher YPRR, Allen finished nearly identically in both PPR and standard leagues.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Here's a player who has a legitimate chance to lead the league in targets in 2023. Amon-Ra St. Brown, or ARSB for short, received 146 targets in 16 games last season. That averages out to 9.1 targets per game, but the full story is more nuanced. St. Brown only played a few snaps in two of those games, so he effectively played 14 full games. In those games, he averaged 9.9 targets per game, which is a remarkable figure. Only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, De'Andre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill saw more targets per game.
Furthermore, as we discussed regarding Keenan Allen earlier, we should prioritize receivers with a low aDot in PPR leagues. ARSB fits this criterion perfectly. His aDot in the last two seasons ranked 85th and 97th, respectively, among all wide receivers. However, this is not a negative aspect. In fact, in PPR leagues, we prefer a low aDot. We don't need the deep targets (he only had six total in 2022). We want those short, dink-and-dunk throws from Jared Goff that gain five yards and earn us 1.5 fantasy points.
Here's another reason to be excited about St. Brown this season. Despite a slight decrease in his slot snap percentage in 2022 (46% compared to 62.7% as a rookie), his aDot actually decreased from 6.8 to 6.2 yards. He continued to run short and intermediate routes despite playing outside more often. This should give us confidence in his PPR value, especially with D.J. Chark gone and Jameson Williams serving a six-game suspension to start the season.
In addition to everything mentioned above, ARSB only received seven targets inside the 10-yard line in 2022. Despite the limited opportunities near the goal line, he still finished as one of the top-10 wide receivers in PPR leagues.
To put it into perspective, Mack Hollins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Michael Gallup also had the same number of targets inside the 10 last season. As you can see, St. Brown's value primarily comes from the abundance of targets he receives rather than goal-line opportunities. He has a real chance to be a top-five wide receiver in PPR leagues in 2023.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
With De'Andre Hopkins released, Marquise Brown becomes the undisputed alpha WR1 in Arizona. If Kyler Murray were playing quarterback, that would likely result in numerous deep targets for Brown. However, Murray is currently recovering from ACL and meniscus surgery, which means he may miss a significant portion of the 2023 season. This implies that Colt McCoy will be the quarterback at least for some time during the season.
When Murray was leading the offense without Hopkins in 2022, Brown averaged 7.6 yards per target (YPT) and 11.3 yards per catch (YPC). However, between Weeks 14 and 17 when he was catching passes from a combination of McCoy and David Blough, those numbers dropped to just 5.5 YPT and 10.1 YPC. Brown's route tree changed without Murray, and we should anticipate a similar situation in 2023. While this may limit Brown's potential to reach the top 10, he can still be a valuable asset, especially in PPR leagues.
It's unlikely that Brown will accumulate a large number of touchdowns to start the season with McCoy or Blough under center. However, he will receive plenty of targets. In fact, he was targeted eight or more times in three of the four games he played a full complement of snaps between Weeks 14 and 17. Surprisingly, he did not catch a single touchdown in those games, whereas he had three touchdowns in Weeks 1-6.
In addition to the aforementioned points, the Cardinals are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season with a projected win total of just 4.5 games. This is likely to lead to numerous negative game scripts, resulting in more pass attempts. While you may want to consider other options in a standard league, don't hesitate to make Brown your WR3 in PPR leagues for the 2023 season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots
Smith-Schuster played out of position last season in Kansas City, with only 39% of his snaps coming from the slot. Despite this, he still managed to finish as a top-30 wide receiver in PPR leagues, thanks to his high catch rate of 77.2% on 101 targets. However, in standard leagues, Smith-Schuster barely made it into the top 40 wide receivers.
This season he finds himself in New England, where the Patriots have lost Jakobi Meyers, who ran 52% of his routes from the slot last year. Smith-Schuster is likely to step into that role and possibly more given his historical success with low aDot routes. His least productive season in the last five years was in 2019 when he had an aDot close to 10 yards, averaging just six targets per game. In 2020, he had a slot rate of 83% and a subsequent aDot of 5.7 yards.
Last season, Patrick Mahomes ranked second among all quarterbacks in yards per attempt (YPA) with 8.1. On the other hand, Mac Jones ranked 26th in YPA with only 6.8. Smith-Schuster will not only see a higher percentage of snaps from the slot, but he'll also be playing with a quarterback who doesn't throw downfield as much. Considering this, it's best to avoid Smith-Schuster in standard leagues. However, due to his new situation in New England, he should be prioritized in PPR leagues for the 2023 season.
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