Free USFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 5

May 13, 2023

Free USFL betting picks, odds, predictions for Week 5 (2023). Our best bets and top USFL picks for moneylines, over/unders and more.

The 2023 USFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for USFL action, so join me here and pay homage to the original "fun" league. Be sure to also read all our other weekly USFL Fantasy Football articles.

If we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that started it all with the likes of Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Reggie White, Doug Flutie, and near-Congressman Herschel Walker. I have nothing but great things to say about my fan experience at the Canton double-header this past week, and I love the free USFL towel and t-shirt.

Week 5 USFL Power Rankings

1. New Orleans Breakers
2. New Jersey Generals
3. Birmingham Stallions
4. Houston Gamblers
5. Pittsburgh Maulers
6. Michigan Panthers
7. Memphis Showboats
8. Philadelphia Stars

Week 5 USFL MVP Ladder

1. McLeod Bethel-Thompson (QB, New Orleans Breakers)
2. Darius Victor (RB, New Jersey Generals)
3. Wes Hills/Sage Surratt (RB/TE, New Orleans Breakers)
4. Mark Thompson (RB, Houston Gamblers)
5. Alex McGough (QB, Birmingham Stallions)/Kenji Bahar (QB, Houston Gamblers)

Week 5

Pittsburgh Maulers at Michigan Panthers (Saturday, May 13th, 12:30 PM)

MICH (-3.5), O/U 41.5

Best Bet: Maulers (+3.5), ***ML (+155)***, & Under 41.5

The Pittsburgh Maulers were the San Antonio Brahmas of the USFL, but since starting Troy Williams at quarterback, they have quickly developed into so much more. Williams has been accurate in his passing, has avoided making critical errors, has been consistent in his connection with WR Bailey Gaither, and has made up for the week-by-week rushing deficiencies of Garrett Groshek and Madre London. Most important, the Maulers continue to boast the USFL's most intimidating defensive lineup, and they almost pulled a stunning upset over the Birmingham Stallions without Reuben Foster in Week 4, but fell just short at 24-20 in Canton.

Meanwhile in Michigan during Week 4, the Michigan Panthers only mustered ten points in an embarrassing 19-point loss to the once worst-ranked Memphis Showboats. The Showboats have been clicking a bit more on all offensive cylinders with Cole Kelley at the helm, and Stevie Scott III and Reggie Corbin produced nice rushing numbers between themselves, but the mediocre QB play of Josh Love and Carson Strong, including two turnovers, ultimately sealed their second-straight, bad-optic loss.

If Michigan had problems with the Showboats' defense, they have a nightmare week ahead of them with Pittsburgh, and after last week, I see no reason to believe that they'll be able to put a cap on Pittsburgh's offensive pieces mentioned above. At the rate this season has gone, I'll end up being wrong by a mile and our whole perspective of the USFL will dramatically change again, but I see this game being a Maulers victory in the final score range of 21-16 to 24-17.

Houston Gamblers at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, May 13th, 4 PM)

BHAM (-4.5), O/U 47.5

Best Bet: Gamblers (+4.5), ***ML (+170)***, & Under 47.5

Over a mere few weeks of the 2023 USFL campaign, Kenji Bahar went from a high-volume high-mistake quarterback to looking like just a solid high-volume passing QB. Just as his reputation is mending, news came this week that he is out of the Houston Gamblers Week 5 matchup against the Birmingham Stallions, and "Touchdown" Terry Wilson of many different college football programs (including Kentucky) will be starting in his stead.

Shockingly, that only mildly impacts the way that I see this game playing out – as long as the Gamblers do the right thing by having Terry mostly running as opposed to passing – because his passing will probably not lead to positive results. This might not be the right DFS week for Justin Hall, but Mark Thompson and T.J. Pledger are going to have themselves a busy day, and if Terry Wilson can have half of the game that Troy Williams had last week, Birmingham is going to get desperate to stop the ground-led bleeding.

On the flip side of this, the Stallions haven't been able to lean on their run game near as much in 2023 in the absence of Bo Scarborough, and while CJ Marable and ZaQuandre White combined for 76 rushing yards against Pittsburgh, it is Alex McGough who led the team in rushing and frankly, has had to carry a gigantic majority of the offensive load. If the Houston Gamblers dedicate this entire game to the run they will win this game because it's the strongest area of football that either of these two teams have to offer, even with Scooby Wright back on the field for Birmingham. Houston ties a bow on a two-ML upset Saturday with a victory over the Stallions by a final score range of 21-17 to 27-24, so I'll lean slightly to the under as the Gamblers drain the clock more in Week 5.

Who remembers the last time we played the @USFLStallions…😏😏😏 pic.twitter.com/wxEchO4Axp

— Houston Gamblers (@USFLGamblers) May 12, 2023

New Jersey Generals at Philadelphia Stars (Sunday, May 14th, Noon)

NJ (-6.5), O/U 43.5

Best Bet: Generals (-6.5) & Under 43.5

Even at 2-2, I still think that the Generals' performance last week against the New Orleans Breakers clearly demonstrated that they are the second-best team in the league and the clear team to beat out of the North Division. Their only losses are that and a Week 1 L to Birmingham. Their defense held the Breakers to just 20 points, and while De'Andre Johnson did little throwing (and what he did do was pretty inefficient), the rushing trio of Johnson, Darius Victor, and Trey Williams combined for 172 yards and a touchdown.

Last week, the Houston Gamblers blew up on the Philadelphia Stars. The preseason pick of many to win the USFL Championship falls to 1-3 on the rotting corpse of a wet-paper-bag O-line that is allowing Case Cookus to get consistently crushed, with their only win being against the Memphis Showboats in Week 1. Also, their running game has been non-existent, but what are you supposed to do when your protection is that bad?

I really, really don't see the Philadelphia Stars getting right in Week 5 against the New Jersey Generals. I do see the Generals being able to continuously pressure Cookus and force turnovers while the Stars rushing attack makes a few uneventful appearances, and I see the Generals' trio of ground-gainers running all over the now-paltry Stars' defense. Even in a 24-7 to 30-13 blowout for New Jersey, I still don't see this hitting the over because of the clock that the Generals will dominate and the struggles that Philly will have all day long.

Memphis Showboats at New Orleans Breakers (Sunday, May 14th, 3 PM)

NOLA (-7.5), O/U 48.5

Best Bet: Breakers (-7.5) & Over 48.5

For how well-rounded and effective the Michigan Panthers looked over the first two games of the 2023 USFL campaign, it is quite meaningful to me that not only did Memphis get a decisive 29-10 victory over them in Week 4, but that the team has looked to have a breath of new life with Cole Kelley under center. The Showboats running game actually got some bearings in that contest behind 15 carries for 54 yards by Kerrith Whyte and an eye-opening 27 yards and two touchdowns from Kelley. Having said those few nice things about my Showboats, we now curb that enthusiasm because the New Orleans Breakers enter Week 5 at 4-0, with wins over the Birmingham Stallions and New Jersey Generals. They also have possibly the three most impressive offensive performers to this point in the USFL season in McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Sage Surratt, and Wes Hills.

They have defensive play-makers as well like Vontae Diggs, and though they got a bit run over through the course of the game, they still held New Jersey to 17 points. I do not believe that the Showboats will be able to have more than one-third the success on the ground that the Generals had, with no more than double the Generals passing production. Plus, the numbers are not kind to the Memphis Showboats' defense prior to their Week 4 win over the Panthers. We've seen marked improvement, but the New Orleans Breakers are going to score, and the Showboats will score considerably less. I see the Breakers winning this by a final score range of 28-17 all the way up to 42-21, so I'm hardcore laying the points with NOLA and opting for the over.

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