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If you have just started to get into the NFL Draft class you may have heard that this receiver class is a weak one. Especially when you compare it to the last few years where we have been insanely spoiled with an absurd amount of riches – many of whom have gone on to be our current crop of WR1s in fantasy drafts. Just because it fails in comparison to recent years does not mean that there are still no players that will make an impact – both in the NFL and fantasy football.
I am not sure there is any sort of consensus with this receiver class – but the closest thing to it is the top four receivers. You can put them in any order you like – but many agree that these are the top options and the most likely candidates to go in the first round. I wrote a scouting report with my thoughts on each of those four and you can read it here.
What about the rest? There is certainly talent to be found on Day 2 or 3 of the NFL Draft. Not all of the receivers that I write about in this article or in part three will become must-start fantasy players. But knowing about their skillset and what they bring to the table will give you a leg up on the competition.
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2023 NFL Draft Wide Receivers after the Top 4
Marvin Mims Jr, Oklahoma
Marvin Mims is quickly becoming a very popular sleeper in this year's receiver class. He is 5’11, 183 pounds, and ran a 4.38 40-yard dash with a 39.5-inch vertical jump. That was the fourth and fifth-best at the receiver position. Yeah, he certainly created some buzz for himself at the combine. But obviously, that only matters so much. When you watch Mims tape one thing jumps out at you – his ability to win downfield from the slot. He has a great ability to track the deep ball. He has terrific hands and body control and has put a few “how did he catch that” receptions on tape. He plays bigger than his size and it shows in some of those spectacular catches. It’s no surprise his tape is littered with downfield shots. He thrives in man coverage as he can beat defenders and blow by them downfield.
But at the same time when you watch him, you notice that his usage was largely one-dimensional. I always say do not assume a player can’t do something if they were never given the chance – so it is possible Mims can be used in a wider variety of ways. Coming into the NFL it does seem that he possesses a limited route tree. As good as he is downfield, he needs some work in the short to the intermediate area. He also showed some struggles against press coverage, but it was just not something he saw all that often. That is something he could develop with more practice at the NFL level.
The numbers back up what the tape shows as well. Mims had an 18.0 air yards per target in college – which is off-the-charts high. It's by far the highest of any receiver I am writing about in this series. So was his 39 percent deep target rate. His 28 catches of 15-plus yards were the second most of that group. He caught 89 percent of his catchable targets and 50 percent of his contested targets – showing that he can play bigger than his size.
However, he had just seven missed tackles forced – which could show that he isn’t as big of a threat after the catch. I think it was more due to defenders who just couldn’t catch up to him most of the time. His 7.7 YAC per catch was second of the 13 receivers I am writing about, behind only Quentin Johnston. Mims is likely going to be a day-two pick and the landing spot will greatly impact his fantasy value. In the right spot, Mims could be a late-round pick or waiver wire pickup with some big weeks, but he will likely be reliant on big plays. He reminds me of a lighter Christian Kirk.
MIchael Wilson, Stanford
MIchael Wilson is my favorite candidate to be the receiver that comes out of nowhere in this draft class. Even after a really strong showing at the Senior Bowl, there has not been a ton of chatter about Wilson. He may even fall to day three in the draft. So why do I like Wilson? Because the only reason he is falling this far and not talked about more is because of his health. Injuries limited Wilson to just 14 games in his final three college seasons. Healthy will be a huge question mark for him in the NFL and it certainly will be the reason he does not get drafted higher.
When you watch his tape, there is a lot to like. Wilson is 6’2, 213 pounds – which is huge in this draft class. He ran a 4.58, which isn’t ideal, but it is very serviceable at his size. Wilson is a good route runner who can lineup all over the field – including in the slot and as an X receiver, which is rare in this draft class. On tape, he showed the ability to use his feet and body movement to manipulate defenders. He can quickly start and stop, and shake defenders – what I am trying to say is he can get open at all three levels. He is also physical and not afraid to throw around his size after the catch. His hands can be more consistent, but he showed the ability to win 50/50 balls.
He can use some work as a route runner and at tracking the deep ball. He also could use some work against press coverage. But again, the biggest concern with Wilson will and always will be health. If he can stay on the field, he is a player that could greatly outlive his draft price. He may need some time to develop as he was robbed of much of that in college due to injuries. For fantasy, I expect Wilson will almost universally go undrafted, but the potential for him to become a waiver wire pickup that makes an impact down the stretch is there if he falls into a situation where he gets an opportunity.
Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Jalin Hyatt is a tough prospect to figure out but the thing that immediately jumps out when you watch him is speed. He has vertical speed for days. Hyatt is 6’0, 176 pounds, and ran a 4.4 forty at the combine with a 40-inch vertical jump. His 1.5 10-yard split showed that he has fast acceleration as well. That speed is what jumps out when you watch his tape.
Hyatt is a long strider who consistently wins downfield and can also win after the catch. He has a great ability to track the ball, while not slowing down. He can speed up and create some more space while tracking the deep ball. Hyatt’s 3.12 yards per route ran in 2022 leads all the receivers I am writing about in this series. His 7.5 YAC per reception is third. Showing that he can win in a multitude of ways. He had 27 catches of 15-plus yards last year and his 19.2 yards per catch were second in this bunch behind only Mims. There is a lot to like about Hyatt the athlete and the deep threat.
However, he also comes with concerns. Due to the system that he played in at Tennessee, he often lined up in the slot or off the line in stack formations. It is just not a system you will see in the NFL. It often led to him just running in a straight line down the field and he had the juice to just burn defenders and leave them in the dust. However, it led to just six percent of his targets being contested. It makes him a tough prospect to figure out and a project heading into the NFL Draft. What also concerns me is that Hyatt had more catches, yards, and touchdowns – by far – last season than in his first two years combined.
Hyatt brings a lot of upside if he can become a better route runner and a more dimensional weapon. However, even if he can’t, he can carve out a role as a team's field stretcher and big play threat. It would lead to him being one of those inconsistent receivers each week in fantasy. He would almost certainly be better used in best-ball leagues. I have seen him comped to early career Will Fuller and DeSean Jackson. That is how much juice Hyatt brings to the table.
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss
Jonathan Mingo is the latest of big receivers to come out of Ole Miss. He measured in at 6’2, 220 pounds. He ran a 4.46 forty-yard dash, with a 1.54 10-yard split, and a 39.5-inch vertical jump. Because of the school and the similar measurables, the lazy comparison is to A.J. Brown, but I do not want to put that kind of pressure on Mingo. Nor do I think he has that ability. Mingo is still a big-time sleeper in a draft class full of smaller, speedier receivers.
Mingo can win downfield despite not having top-end speed. While he is not a blazer, he has enough speed to get open downfield. He also has strong hands and the body control to use his size to put himself in a position to go up and get the ball over the defender. There are several “how did he catch that” catches in his film. He also showed strong hands by catching 92 percent of his catchable targets and 39 percent of contested ones. Mingo operated often out of the slot in college – which should only help his transition to the NFL.
We have seen the big slot become more of a priority in the league in recent years. He showed the ability to win after the catch as his 7.2 YAC per reception was fourth of this year's receivers. But he also can line up outside at times and win downfield. Mingo can be used in a multitude of ways. Plus, he is a good run blocker which should only help him stay on the field more.
While he showed the ability to win downfield, he does struggle to create separation on those plays. Often, he has to go up and get the ball over the defender, which will be more difficult at the NFL level. The lack of high-end speed is the biggest knock on Mingo. That, along with the fact that he didn’t make a huge impact in college. Some receivers have put up better numbers in one season than Mingo did in his entire collegiate career. Still, he worked hard to develop as a receiver. While his route running can still use some polish, Mingo has a skillset that can be useful at the next level.
Mingo reminds me of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who can play out wide and win downfield at times but is at his best as a big slot receiver. Mingo can be a possession receiver and chain mover, who occasionally receives a deep shot. While I do not envision him being more than a WR3 in his career for fantasy purposes, he can certainly be a contributor if he falls into the right situation.
Josh" data-id="24076">Josh+Downs" data-id="24145">Josh Downs, North Carolina
Josh Downs may only be 5’9, and 171 pounds, but do not label him a small receiver. He may be the best contested-catch receiver in this class. He caught 68 percent of his contested targets, which was by far the highest of any receivers in this series. Zay Flowers (58 percent) was the only other receiver that caught over half of their contested targets. This skill jumps out immediately when you watch his film. Not only can he excel on these catches, but he was often utilized in the red zone – and often wins. Do not put this man in a box because of his size!
Downs will have to operate out of the slot at the NFL level. That used to be a bad thing to say about a receiver 10 years ago, but it is fine in today’s NFL game. Many of the high-end productive fantasy receivers largely operate out of the slot. Downs can still improve his route running, but the good thing is he was asked to run a high variety of routes in college, so there is already more to work with than some other receivers in this class.
Downs can operate out of the slot and find the weakness in zone coverage. but he is at his best in man coverage, as he can use his quickness and manipulate the defender to create separation. What I also like is that he was often double-teamed in college, and showed he can win despite it. While he showed he can win downfield at college, I do question if he has enough speed to do so at the next level.
Downs is the type of player that I have a hard time not liking for fantasy purposes. He has enough quickness and wiggle that he could be used as a slot receiver with the ability to shake a defender and quickly add a lot of yards after the catch. He also can win contested catches and be a strong red zone weapon. Christian Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, and Jerry Jeudy are all receivers that were atop the league in red zone targets from the slot. There is a role for Downs in the NFL. Downs can become a useful fantasy piece if he falls into the right situation – one that can give him consistent snaps out of the slot.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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