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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on March 31, 2023. Brenton Kemp's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Opening Day was a blast with plenty of variance among the starting pitchers. Star pitchers such as Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Alek Manoah, and Zac Gallen were rocked in their season debuts while Gerrit Cole, Pablo Lopez, Shohei Ohtani, Marcus Stroman, and even Logan Webb got their respective seasons started on the right note.
After a big Opening Day slate we have just five games on the main slates at both DraftKings and FanDuel with a 6:40 PM EST lock time. The lineup picks will range from some elite high-priced players to mid-priced options and value plays. I'll give you a few of my top pitching options and then some infielders, outfielders, and teams to stack! You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups.
Now, let's dive into the picks and get the weekend started on the right note!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin May vs. ARI ($8,400 DK, $9,300 FD)
Robbie Ray enters the evening as the most expensive pitcher on the slate at both DraftKings and FanDuel but he takes on a Cleveland Guardians team that simply does not strike out much. In fact, Cleveland's 18.2% K% as a team last season was the best mark in the big leagues. They've been at or near the top of this department for several seasons now.
As a result, I'm pivoting to Dustin May who was absolutely filthy this spring after returning from Tommy John surgery late last season. May turned in a 2.95 ERA with 20 punchouts across 18 1/3 innings in Cactus League action but, perhaps most important, is the fact he went 5 2/3 innings in a March 26 start. Of course, we need length for quality starts and wins.
May owns a 23.9% K% for his career, but he also posted an eye-popping 37.6% mark across five starts in 2021 before undergoing elbow surgery. It's a small sample that was unsustainable but May should bring increased strikeout upside to the table in a healthy 2023 season.
With the Dodgers listed around -190 on the money line tonight, May has strong win potential along with nasty stuff that should provide value this evening.
Nick Martinez vs. COL ($7,300 DK, $7,600 FD)
Among the cheapest starting pitching options on the slate, it's Martinez who should deliver the most value on both sites.
Before reviving his career overseas, Martinez was a no-go in daily fantasy baseball circles due to a minuscule strikeout rate that ranged from 8.9% to 14% from 2014-2017. However, Martinez returned to the big leagues last season and produced a much strong, albeit lukewarm, 21.2% K%. That said, the righty looked sharp this spring while racking up plenty of punchouts as he turned in a 1.93 ERA with 19 strikeouts across 14 spring frames.
While the Rockies put up seven runs on the Padres in last night's opener, they ranked dead last with a .275 wOBA in parks not named Coors Field last season. This is a club notorious for struggling at the plate outside of their hitter-friendly home ballpark. I wouldn't expect another offensive outburst in this one tonight.
In short, Martinez has an opportunity to deliver big-time value at a small cost at home tonight.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Manny Machado - 3B, SD vs. Kyle Freeland ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
The Padres have a really good chance of scoring the most runs on tonight's short slate and Manny Machado should be right in the middle of the action.
Machado turned in an MVP-caliber 2022 season that saw him hit 32 home runs while eclipsing the 100 runs and RBI marks in the process. He did so while actually posting reverse splits but Machado's career splits are remarkably quite even. That being said, he's had his way with Freeland in the past.
Machado has seen a lot of his divisional foe while going 12 for 38 (.316) with six extra-base hits alongside a .869 OPS. Admittedly, none of those extra-base knocks went for a home run but those are very good numbers in a strong sample. Machado should get the Rockies southpaw in this one tonight.
Mike Zunino - C, CLE vs. Robbie Ray ($3,400 DK, $2,100 FD)
A dirt-cheap catcher with big-time power in a favorable matchup? Sign me up.
Mike Zunino takes on southpaw Robbie Ray tonight in Seattle and while Ray has been one of the game's best pitchers over the last two seasons, he still hasn't curtailed the long ball. Ray posted a 1.52 HR/9 last season and even a 1.54 mark during his 2021 AL Cy Young season with the Blue Jays. He's yielded a 1.49 HR/9 to righties versus a 1.02 mark versus lefties in his career.
Enter Zunino who hit 33 HR as recently as the 2021 season before struggling mightily at the plate last season. Nonetheless, the right-swinging backstop owns a career .210 isolated power including a .217 mark off lefties. In the aforementioned 2021 season, he mashed lefties to the tune of a .342 average, .526 ISO, 1.287 OPS, and 242 wRC+.
Like Machado, he's also fared well against tonight's opponent. Zunino might be hitting just .238 against Ray in 21 career at-bats, but he also has four HR and a 1.161 OPS off of him in that time. The value upside here is tremendous.
Garrett Cooper - 1B, MIA vs. David Peterson ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD)
Another cheap infield option is the Marlins' Garrett Cooper who got his season started on the right note with a two-run jack off Max Scherzer and could be a fantasy breakout player this season.
Cooper hasn't brought a ton of power to the table with just nine HR in 119 games last season while his career-high is 15 from the 2019 season across 107 games with Miami. However, the underlying data is strong as Cooper ranked in the league's 63rd percentile in barrel rate and 71st in hard-hit rate last season. Not elite, but certainly something to work with at this cost.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jarred Kelenic - OF, SEA vs. Hunter Gaddis ($2,700 DK, $2,600 FD)
There's more value on the board in the outfield tonight as Jarred Kelenic and the Mariners take on Guardians right-hander Hunter Gaddis.
The former top prospect has struggled mightily at the big-league level, producing a .169 average and a .589 OPS across his first 148 games. However, he displayed some pop and speed with 21 HR and 12 stolen bases, too.
He also enjoyed a monster spring training. Kelenic hit .353 with four home runs, two doubles, two triples, and a 1.095 OPS across 19 spring games. He got his 2023 season started on the right note by going 1-for-3 with a stolen base in last night's 3-0 season-opening victory. This could be a breakout season for a player who is still just 23 years old.
Amed Rosario - SS/OF, CLE vs. Robbie Ray ($3,000 FD)
This outfield pick is for FanDuel only where Rosario can be rostered in the outfield in addition to shortstop where he will spend the 2023 season.
Apologies to those playing DraftKings (he's still an excellent option at shortstop) but he needs to be included in this piece for FanDuel purposes. After all, Rosario has hit left-handed pitching for a .302 average, .815 OPS, and .348 wOBA for his career. Secondly, he stole 18 bases last season, which is important considering Ray surrendered 17 stolen bases last season, the fifth most in baseball.
Finally, Rosario is 5-for-10 with three extra-base hits and a 1.345 OPS in his career off of Ray. Even if he's a one-off in your lineup he is worth a strong look.
Juan Soto - OF, SD vs. Kyle Freeland ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD)
There are plenty of cheap, valuable options on this slate but if you want to pay up for production Juan Soto is a great choice.
Don't worry about the lefty-on-lefty matchup against Freeland as Soto has still hit lefties very well in his career despite a down 2022 season against same-handed pitching. he posted a .875 OPS off of them in 2021 and should be in for a bounce-back year off southpaws in 2023. Additionally, Freeland's career splits aren't terribly relevant, to begin with.
I'm also not concerned given the fact Soto has three extra-base hits -- including a home run -- and a .856 OPS off Freeland in 18 career at-bats against him. Let's not galaxy-brain this one.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland (COL)
Clearly, I'm on the Padres tonight as noted in the Machado and Soto sections. Like most Rockies pitchers, Freeland has fared better on the road but this Padres lineup is a monster while Machado and Soto have hit him well in the past.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is a player you'll want to add to this stack while outfielder Nelson Cruz provides solid value potential at a cheap price on both sites. Cruz struggled in Washington last season but still hit lefties far better than righties and has destroyed southpaws throughout a lengthy big-league career.
Cleveland Indians vs. Robbie Ray (SEA)
While many should be on the Mariners against a rookie in Hunter Gaddis going for the Guardians, Gaddis actually had a nice spring while the Indians have long had one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Mariners had a quality 'pen a season ago as well, but my top contrarian stack is the Guardians.
I noted Zunino as my top catching option above while Rosario needs to be included as well. Additionally, Jose Ramirez boasts excellent home run and stolen base upside while Oscar Gonzalez hit five of his 11 HR off lefties last season (in 91 games) despite seeing 158 fewer plate appearances against southpaws than right-handers. There's excellent positional separation in this stack, allowing room in the outfield for the likes of Soto and/or Kelenic.
Good luck tonight everyone and let's get after it this season!
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