MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/18/2025)

August 18, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/18/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including

Home run props are back in my life, and it's a beautiful thing! I've been on a roll lately, identifying at least two correct home run calls in each of my last three articles. However, today is going to be my biggest challenge yet.

To start, I am only selecting four picks instead of five. That means I'll have to raise my hit rate from 40% to 50% to keep the streak going. Secondly, we have some unseasonably cool temperatures across much of the East Coast, and several ballparks are expected to experience potential rain or strong winds blowing in and not out, creating more favorable conditions for pitchers. There are only a handful of games with some good hitting conditions, limiting my choices for home run picks today.

In this article, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, August 18, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/18/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, August 18:

• Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
• Salvador Perez, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds

Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel)

We kick things off in Atlanta, where there could be some thunderstorms, but as long as they play, there are favorable hitting conditions with a high dew point, 90-degree temperature, and a slight breeze blowing out to left-center field.

The White Sox are handing the ball to Yoendrys Gomez today to make just his second start of the season after working as a reliever earlier in the year and then spending the majority of the season at Triple-A.

Based on his splits, albeit in a small sample size, I prefer the lefties here, and no Atlanta lefty has been as hot lately as Harris II.

Michael Harris II went 2/5 with a HR yesterday and has been red hot over his last 29 games...

121 PA, .390/.405/.720, 20 XBH, 8 HR#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/7EYSwwS8hY

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) August 17, 2025

Despite being more of a contact/speed guy, Harris is now up to 14 homers on the season. This ballpark is built for left-handed power, as we have seen Matt Olson make a living putting the ball over the right field wall. Let's see if Harris can do it tonight against an inexperienced pitcher in what should be a solid offensive environment.

Salvador Perez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel)

Some of the best hitting conditions on the slate are in Kansas City tonight. It's going to be in the mid-90s at game time with 50% humidity and winds blowing out to left-center field around 7-8 mph. Now, Kauffman Stadium is known as a pitchers' park with its large dimensions, but the conditions tonight might just even things up for the hitters or make it even more in their favor.

Salvador Perez is just FIVE bombs away from the 300 HR club🫣💣 #FountainsUp pic.twitter.com/q5tAdIDh9K

— SleeperRoyals (@SleeperRoyals) August 16, 2025

I can't pick on Michael Wacha in good conscious (0.79 HR/9) with Texas bats, so let's go after the youngster Jack Leiter (1.03 HR/9) instead. Leiter has some very sharp reverse splits this season, allowing righties to slash .259/.353/.408 while holding lefties to a .180/.284/.299 slash line.

Leiter has given up seven home runs to righties, and his 11.7% barrel% is one of the worst marks on the slate. He probably has some regression coming to his HR/9 based on that barrel rate.

Salvador Perez is the power bat I want from Kansas City. He has two home runs over the last week and is now up to 22 on the season. The ageless wonder continues to get it done at the plate this year, and he's in a good position to leave the yard here if he can time up a Leiter fastball or wait for a slider over the plate to get under and lift over the outfield fence.

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Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel)

We simply can't ignore the fact that the Dodgers are in Coors Field tonight, and that while there is some rain in the forecast, there's also winds projected as high as 15 mph blowing out to right-center field.

The Rockies are starting veteran lefty Kyle Freeland tonight. While Freeland hasn't been terrible this year (4.57 SIERA), he is the definition of a "hittable" pitcher as he has only a 15.6% K% and a 92% Z-Contact%. He's given up 16 home runs this season, and it's no surprise that all but one of those have come to right-handed hitters. The Dodgers have some healthy BvP numbers against him as well.

Teoscar Hernandez is now one of nine batters to hit 20 home runs in every full-length season since 2018. pic.twitter.com/xrsE3R8cZW

— Dodgers Tailgate (@DodgersTailgate) August 17, 2025

While Mookie Betts is heating up and Andy Pages is even a decent choice here, too, it's Hernandez that I want in this spot. Teoscar has a home run against Freeland in three at-bats and owns the best splits against lefties of the Dodgers regulars. He has a .308 ISO and .615 SLG against southpaws this season and has been a bona-fide lefty-masher for his entire career.

These are pretty decent odds for an elite hitter like Hernandez in what appears to be a very good spot based on both the matchup and park factors.

Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel)

The last ballpark that looks very appealing for hitters tonight is Angel Stadium in Los Angeles. The temperature is only around 80 degrees, but it should be very humid, and we could have winds up to 9 mph blowing out to center field.

When selecting a pitcher to pick on in this game, it has to be Victor Mederos of the Angels. The right-hander is making just his second start of the season and has only 16 innings of MLB experience. Mederos is a sinker/slider pitcher who relies more on ground balls than strikeouts, which means we should see the Reds hitters making a lot of contact tonight.

While I would normally attack an RHP that is a sinkerballer with lefty hitters, it's right-hander Marte that profiles the best here. Marte has the best batting average, SLG, and OPS against RHP of anyone in the lineup tonight this season. He also has crushed sliders this season to the tune of a .311 batting average and .622 SLG.

This is my super deep dive stat nerd pick of the day, but at these odds, if he hits a dinger, we can celebrate with a Marte-Party as we will be profitable on the night even if no other props go our way!

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