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It’s a deal. The New Orleans Saints have signed former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to a four-year deal.
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Let's break down this huge offseason move.
Derek Carr's Situation in the NFC South
Last season in Las Vegas, Carr finished as the QB17 in fantasy football. He averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game while passing 34.5 times per game.
Carr was fifth in deep ball attempts last season (72) and fifth in air yards (4701). All three of his former divisional foes in the AFC West were in the top 20 for the fewest average passing yards allowed.
The Chargers were seventh, allowing an average of 204.4. The Broncos were 12th, allowing an average of 210.2, and the Super Bowl Champions Chiefs were 20th, allowing 225.1 average passing yards per game.
Carr now enters a division with the Carolina Panthers, who allowed an average of 227.5 passing yards per game (22nd), and the Atlanta Falcons, who were giving up an average of 231.9 passing yards per game (25th).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed only 208.8 average passing yards per game (ninth). Tampa also has 23 unrestricted free agents though, including CB Jamel Dean, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, safety Mike Edwards, and safety Keanu Neal. Not to mention defensive linemen Will Gholston and Akiem Hicks, along with linebacker Lavonte David.
This Tampa defense will look much different in 2023, as they are $-58,657,999 over the salary cap (per Spotrac.com).
New Orleans Saints 2023 Opponents
In addition to a division-friendly schedule, Carr’s other nine opponents for the 2023 season include five teams in the top 13 who are giving up the most fantasy points per game on average to the quarterback position.
- New England Patriots---13th-most (16.3)
- Indianapolis Colts---eighth-most (17.9)
- Chicago Bears---fifth-most (8.2)
- Tennessee Titans---fourth-most (19.0)
- Detroit Lions---most (21.9)
Derek Carr's Main Weapons in New Orleans
There is a good chance running back Alvin Kamara will not be available for the full 2023 season, so he’s not on our current radar.
What Carr does have at his disposal is WR Chris Olave, dual-threat player Taysom Hill, and TE Juwan Johnson.
Juwan Johnson
Johnson finished last season as TE8 in standard fantasy leagues and TE15 in PPR. He was on the receiving end of a 14.1% target share and had 185 snaps out of the slot, running 339 routes with a 69.9% route run percentage.
Taysom Hill
Hill was TE9 in PPR and TE3 in standard last season. His stats are buoyed by the dual QB/TE hybrid he played. He had two receiving touchdowns and nine total touchdowns. Hill only had a 2.9% target share with nine receptions and 76 receiving yards.
Production-wise, Carr’s new tight end targets outproduced what he had last season as Darren Waller finished TE31 while playing only nine games and Foster Moreau finished TE30 after 15 games.
Juwan Johnson is not Darren Waller but a healthy Johnson versus an injury-plagued Waller is a step up.
Chris Olave
The most important piece for fantasy purposes is Olave. Olave finished as WR23 in standard and WR25 in PPR leagues. Expect that to improve.
Let's compare Olave to Davante Adams last season:
- Olave with 26.7% target share v. Adams' 32.6%
- Olave with 29 deep targets v. Adams' 33 (second)
- Olave with 1670 air yards v. Adams' 2130 (first)
- Olave with 40.8% air yards share v. Adams' 39.4%
If there isn’t a Kamara, the offense doesn’t yet have the Josh Jacobs effect. But arguably, the weapons aren’t taking a major hit.
If Michael Thomas stays with the Saints and is the Thomas we remember from the old days, it will be even better for Carr’s fantasy prospects.
Does Derek Carr Fit in New Orleans?
Carr fits with the Saints. He is reunited with Dennis Allen and out from under the confines of Josh McDaniels' offense, which saw Carr have the highest interception rate of his career (2.8%) and the lowest completion rate since his rookie season (60.8%). Remember, before the McDaniels era, Carr had 23 touchdowns and a career-high 4804 passing yards in the 2021 season.
This weaker NFC South division and his weapons give Carr a high ceiling in fantasy land. He should outplay his QB17 from last season. This puts him at least in consideration for your QB1 spot in fantasy this upcoming season.
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