RADIO
Kurt Kitayama hung on at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, firing even-par rounds during the weekend to capture his first title against the biggest names in golf.
For the 30-year-old, the victory marked a career-altering outcome that helped to move him to 19th in the world -- something that should be considered highly notable since Kitayama's most significant question mark has always been his ability to generate consistent results. That volatility never played great in my eyes for a golfer who typically hovered on either side of some of the more meaningful contests yearly when discussing being able to qualify, but the two-year exemption and high-end output nature he clearly has demonstrated over the past season changes the potential for the American if he can enter all the bigger events.
In my opinion, the sky might be the limit for the alma mater of my college, and in the words of Drake, "Sittin' Gucci Row like they say up at UNLV" has never applied more than in this case for a golfer that cashed a career-high 3.6 million-dollar payout at Arnie's place. "Young Rebel. Young money. Nothing you can tell me."
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The PLAYERS Championship
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The PLAYERS Link
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
- Units: +311.229 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2023
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
Premium Discord Access
- Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.
- $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.
Field
Field Size: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: 23
Last Five Winners Of TPC Sawgrass
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | -13 |
| 2021 | Justin Thomas | -14 |
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | -16 |
| 2018 | Webb Simpson | -18 |
| 2017 | Si Woo Kim | -10 |
Expected Cut-Line
| 2022 | 3 |
| 2021 | 1 |
| 2019 | 0 |
| 2018 | 0 |
| 2017 | 3 |
TPC Sawgrass
7,189 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded Rye - Think of your Bent/Poa mixtures)
TPC Sawgrass has always been a challenging course to handicap. You don't have to look any further than the erratic course history of every golfer in the field to realize the volatility is heightened at the venue. Nevertheless, the move from May to March a few years ago has provided more predictably since the facility was always best suited to be played in colder weather conditions.
The summer temperature in May gave us a Bermuda surface that was still dormant (but playable) from the winter and created this fiery test that made stopping your irons on these smaller-than-average greens nearly impossible. The fast/lightning surface we have become accustomed to over the years will still be in play, but more of where I am going with this is that the Bermuda grass gets overseeded on all parts of the course, creating much softer landing areas that should allow shot-shaping and control with your irons from anywhere on the track.
Strokes gained around the green will still be amplified because of the smaller putting surfaces, but it is hard to weigh properly since shaved run-off areas allow multiple options to be considered when attempting to get up and down. There are 17 water hazards and 88 bunkers that are put into place to cause havoc, and while the rough is anything but penal, the Pete Dye nature will cause a handful of forced lay-ups for the field. Golfers that can be creative, salvage par, avoid critical mistakes and control their irons will be most equipped to find success at this grueling test.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Sawgrass | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 278 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 63% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 53% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.63 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).
Weighted Tee To Green (20%)
Strokes Gained Putting Fast Greens (7.5%)
Strokes Gained Total - Fast Greens But Soft (10%)
Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye/TPC (10%)
Strokes Gained Total Short Par 72s (12.5%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Weighted Scrambling (20%)
Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
![](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 635 599"></svg>)
Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: 2023 Only
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group: I was having this conversation with Model Maniac Sunday night, but why did DraftKings pick this week to increase Jon Rahm's price? The PLAYERS is as volatile as expected for an event that expresses itself in all capital letters. It has turned a realistic fade option into something that needs to be highly decoded when discussing ownership for what we will do.
With current projections looking flat between Rahm, McIlroy and Scheffler, I prefer the discount that McIlroy and Scheffler possess. We will see if other factors coincide with my Monday thoughts, but my early intrigue will stem from those two options out of the four names. It would take Rahm entering the mix at sub-10 percent for me to consider entering back into the fray.
Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Early thoughts on the group: So a few names will most likely be out of my player pool if we don't receive some unforeseen change. I don't have a ton of interest in Collin Morikawa or Tony Finau -- two golfers that graded negative for me in almost all iterations of my data. That leaves us with the real brunt of the decision coming down to Max Homa (2023 is a different version of him), Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im.
My model believes Cantlay is the top upside play in this event, making him one of the better win equity targets on the entire board, and there is something to be said about Thomas grading first overall. Sure, there are some 2023 concerns with what we have gotten from him statistically that I would like to monitor when looking at the hefty ownership Monday afternoon, but I will keep all four in the early player pool and go from there. I assume one of Homa or Thomas will get cut before Thursday (strongly leaning Homa early for that cut).
Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Early thoughts on the group: DAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY. DAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!! DAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYYYYYYY!
I currently find myself out on Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, and Shane Lowry. Aside from Hatton, I have minimal interest in all those other names and probably prefer pivoting away from the Englishman and onto someone else since I am going to play Day and his chalky total.
We should get better clarity on this range over the next few days in what popularity they will bring to the table. However, I think I will be in on Hovland, Day, and Kim and make my decisions on what to do with Matsuyama and Zalatoris as more news enters over the next few days. If Hideki continues the injury-prone updates that we got last week, it probably isn't worth the leverage that will be created on a golfer that NOBODY wants to play. That said, I haven't gotten there yet and am still a possible buyer.
Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Jason Day
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days. (Anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). We can make changes in the Final DraftKings article to account for new information.
That is obviously a massive group of names for us to whittle down and consider over these next few days.
Adam Hadwin, Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power, Thomas Detry, Keegan Bradley (ownership dependant), Adam Scott, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge, Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Brian Harman, K.H. Lee, and Tommy Fleetwood would probably be the 14 names that generate the most intrigue for me. We will talk more about them in my 'Final DraftKings' article over here at RotoBaller and make final cuts.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run. (anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). That took away options like Charley Hoffman, who my model did like if the ownership can normalize.
We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those names. I don't want to remove too many options from that list early since ownership will be a big factor for leverage.
My early leans would be Brendon Todd, Eric Cole, Adam Svensson, Ryan Fox, and Kurt Kitayama, but there is a long week to go in making those calls.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
