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Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week features Torrey Pines (South) for the Farmers Insurance Open on the PGA Tour. All players in the field will play one round each on both the South and North courses. A 36-hole cut will then determine what players in the field will play the weekend, with all golfers that make the cut playing their final two rounds on Torrey South. Due to that fact, this piece focuses on the South course, but some notes about the North course are also included at the end of this week's article. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Torrey Pines (South) Golf Course: Par 72, 7765 Yards
Hole 1: Par 4, 451 Yards
Off the Tee: As we will see often throughout Torrey Pines, bunkers are strategically placed along narrow fairways so they are in the way for the average-length player, and that trend starts with the tee shot here. The bunkers on both sides of the fairway are in play, the right one is in play on the carry and the left one is in play with just a tiny bit of roll-out. However, the long hitters will be able to carry the bunker on the right, meaning as long as they error on that side they will have a nice short wedge into the green. Average-length and shorter hitters will be flirting with those bunkers for all three rounds.
Approach: Longer hitters likely have wedges in their hands, the rest will have short irons. Large bunkers are on either side of the green, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a handful of players play from both the fairway bunker and a green-side bunker to start their day because of how narrow the green is, especially towards the front. Miss all the bunkers and they'll have a good chance to birdie the opening hole. Find one of them and they are playing for par. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 2: Par 4, 389 Yards
Off the Tee: Club choice off the tee on par 4's and 5's won't come into play much on this course because of the length, but this tee shot will be one of those where they'll have to decide if they want to risk a bunker or trees to get a really close shot, or just lay back and take a little longer wedge in. Laying up to the start of the bunkers still leaves less than 120 yards into the green, so no matter what they choose to do, wedges will be the next club after the tee shot. If they choose to go with driver, the bunker on the right can be carried by most of the field, so taking an angle to the right side will be how to attack the hole to make sure nothing floats left into the bunker on that side.
Approach: Bunkers protect both sides towards the front here much like the last hole, but they shouldn't be much in play on this hole with wedges in hand. As long as the tee shots stay out of the bunker, this should be a scoring hole for the entire field. Green Size: 20x30 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 3: Par 3, 201 Yards
Approach: The first of the many long par 3's they'll face throughout the event (The north course doesn't even have a par 3 under 200 yards). The green has a wide bunker at the very front and keeping it out of the bunker is the priority. Onto the green and a par will be plenty good on this par 3, the same as it will be for all the other par 3's. Green Size: 30x20 Yards.
Advantage: GIR, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 4: Par 4, 490 Yards
Off the Tee: This tee shot demands a lot from these guys to be able to have any success. Step one is keeping it from going into the ocean on the left, step two is keeping it out of the bunkers on the right, and final step is to hit it as far as possible because this is a long par 4. Not only is doing all of that difficult on its own, but the hole also sits right on the ocean and undoubtedly will have winds coming off the ocean messing with the ball while it's in the air. There will be a lot of tee shots that end up in the bunkers on the right and any score that doesn't have a box around it on the scorecard is a really good score on this hole.
Approach: This is a long approach to a green that has a bunker that protects the front-left side of the green. The bunker should only be in play when pins are tucked on that side, however. Given that most guys will error on the right side of this hole off the tee, a left bunker shouldn't be a lot of trouble on approach if the pin isn't over there. Green Size: 20x30 Yards.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling
Hole 5: Par 4, 454 Yards
Off the Tee: Another great example of bunkers placed in problem areas. Without the bunkers where they are on this hole, this hole is really easy because there's no trees or anything else in the way. The bunkers force a straight tee shot down a narrow fairway, and anything offline will be played out of one of the bunkers unless it's REALLY offline. Find the fairway, though, and it's fairly simple after that.
Approach: The whole right side of this green is protected by a long bunker, and there's another bunker short and left. On front pins, they're both going to be in play because of the approach distance, but the left bunker will be out of play if they move any pins to the back. Scoring is possible from those playing out of the fairway, otherwise, they'll have to take their medicine from the bunkers and hope for par before moving onto a real scoring hole. Green Size: 15x30 Yards.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Driving Accuracy, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 6: Par 5, 564 Yards
Off the Tee: This tee shot will be sent over at least part of a canyon in order to cut off as much of this dogleg as possible. Since there's not a ton of scoring on this course, getting in position off the tee on the par 5's (this one in particular) is important. Obviously, keep it out of the canyon, but as long as the ball is not in one of the bunkers down the left side of the fairway birdie is in play.
Approach: Long hitters should be able to get to the green in two if they wanted, possibly with an iron depending on how much of the hole is cut off from the tee shot. The front of the green is open and could see some fairway woods rolled up on the front of the green from a little farther away as well. Those that can't get to the green will just hit something easy up to a short wedge distance and set up the scoring chance from there. The green has bunkers on both sides, but they will only be a problem for those that go for the green in two, and even then, having a good game from the bunker will still give birdie chances. There's nothing else really in the way on this hole so as long as the tee shot doesn't find the canyon, this is a birdie hole for the field. Green Size: 20x35 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 7: Par 4, 462 Yards
Off the Tee: The canyon that was in play on a right miss last hole is again in play on a right miss on this hole. This hole is very similar to the last one, it's just shorter and is a par 4. They have to avoid the canyon again, which again brings the bunker on the left side of the fairway into play. The longest hitters may be able to avoid that bunker and will also be able to set up a much shorter approach to a green that will be difficult to hit from longer distances.
Approach: Another medium-length approach to a green that will look very narrow from where they play from. The further the approach comes from, the more dangerous the bunker covering the right side becomes because of dispersion. Long hitters will get much shorter clubs into this green and it will become a scoring hole. Green Size: 15x35 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking
Hole 8: Par 3, 177 Yards
Approach: This is the only par 3 they will play the entire weekend that plays under 200 yards every day. It's pretty straightforward, and distance control will be the important factor. Depending on pin placement there will only be a few yards in front or behind the hole to miss. Bunkers also protect the front and back instead of the left and right sides like we typically see, so something landing between the two bunkers should be good enough for a scoring chance. Green Size: 30x15 Yards.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 9: Par 5, 615 Yards
Off the Tee: The first of the two long par 5's completes the front nine. It's the easiest hole on the course and plays almost a half a stroke under par. The reason for that is pretty obvious, unlike most of the other holes, there are no bunkers to worry about off the tee and trees are only in the way if you are very off line. All they have to do is get something out there that's safe and the majority of the field will just be laying up to a short wedge in for a scoring chance. Long hitters may have a chance to get there, but even then it is a good idea to lay up because of the bunkers that will catch a lot of shots that are short of the green.
Approach: This is a pick-your-distance approach, likely from somewhere around 100 yards. Two large bunkers are on the left side and another one on the right, but they shouldn't be in play with wedges in hand, they should only be in the way for those that attempt to get to this green in two. It's a pretty simple approach to this hole for most though, just spin a wedge in close, get a birdie and move on to the back nine. Green Size: 20x30 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach
Hole 10: Par 4, 454 Yards
Off the Tee: They added 40 yards or so to this hole from the past and took it from a non-driver hole to an auto-driver hole. They used to have to worry about the bunkers off the tee, but only the long hitters will have that issue now. As long as they stay away from the trees on the left, there is not much trouble off this tee.
Approach: A short-iron shot will be what's left here. Long hitters may even get it into wedge range. Bunkers guard the front-left and front-right part of the green, but likely won't be in play unless pins are tucked on their sides. With short irons or wedges in hand, this should be a scoring hole for everyone. Green Size: 20x30 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 11: Par 3, 225 Yards
Approach: There won't be much pin hunting on this hole, just hit it to the middle of the green and take what's left from there. Bunkers on both sides will be in play, we may even see some error long on this hole as there's typically a set of stands behind the green that will stop the ball from going too far. Even if they don't put the stands up, they will still probably error long and stay away from the bunkers. Par is important here to carry into the next hole. Green Size: 15x30 Yards.
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 12: Par 4, 505 Yards
Off the Tee: When I think to myself about what the hardest hole on the PGA Tour would look like, I'd imagine some multiple combinations of small fairway, water, out of bounds, trees, bunkers, etc. This hole, based on score relative to par, played as the hardest hole in 2019, but it really doesn't look that hard from the images. What makes it difficult is the length. The fairway is one of the more wide fairways on the course, and only the bunkers on the right are really in play for a lot of the field. Length is the key for this tee shot, they're going to need to be as close as possible to this green to get it on the green in two and at least a good chance for a par. Some of the field may not even be able to reach in two if they don't hit a long tee shot or their tee shot finds one of the bunkers.
Approach: Almost all of the field will have an approach well over 200 yards to this green. As is the case for most of the other greens we've seen so far, bunkers protect the whole right side and almost the whole left side. Much like the par 3 right before this hole, just aiming for the center of the green and taking what's left from there is good enough on this hole. Take a par if you can get it and move onto a hole where you can make a stroke up if you need to. Green Size: 20x30 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 13: Par 5, 621/600 Yards
Off the Tee: The scorecard has multiple distances, but the hole will be long no matter what. The longer tee shot is actually the easier one, assuming they can clear the 240-yard canyon because the fairway is wider. Keep it out of the canyon and move on will be the strategy here.
Approach: This should be another pick-your-distance approach to the green since most of the field will likely lay up short of all of the bunkers. Going after this green in two, especially from the back tees, is just too risky with all of the bunkers ready to grab any ball that doesn't fly to the green. This green is one of the largest they'll see all weekend. Other than all the bunkers in the front, there's also a smaller one in the very back of the green. Assuming everyone is hitting wedges into the green for their third shot, none of the bunkers should be in play from there and there should be a bunch of scoring. This is a good hole to make up for any mistakes that might have been made on the previous two holes and/or gain some ground on the field. Green Size: 35x25 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach
Hole 14: Par 4, 437 Yards
Off the Tee: The canyon trouble is back again, and this time is on the left side. They'll absolutely error right on this hole since the only "problem" over there is the cart path, and then they're away from the canyon and the fairway bunkers. Straight and long on this hole is a significant advantage, long hitters can have wedges into this green whereas others will have 8 and 9 irons.
Approach: A short iron or potentially a wedge into this green. Bunkers protect the front-left and right parts of the green again, but what the bunkers don't protect, the canyon does. Any error in club selection or a bad strike can lead to bogey or worse since the hazard surrounding the green is so close and the green is not deep. Obviously, a good approach, especially with a wedge, can lead to a great look at birdie. Green Size: 35x15 Yards.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 15: Par 4, 480 Yards
Off the Tee: Another one of the hardest holes on tour, and not a whole lot different from the last hole. The tee shot this time actually requires accuracy however, because this hole has trees as it's defense instead of bunkers. If they get stuck behind the trees on either side, it will be a very difficult time getting par. In addition to the trees, length is the other piece that makes this hole difficult. Even if the ball is in the fairway, it's still a long way into the green. Similar to the last hole, long AND straight will be important on this hole.
Approach: A long approach just under 200 yards for much of the field. Green-side bunkers will grab misses that are short-right or long-left, and assuming pins are placed near them they'll definitely be in play each day. As is the case with many other long approaches, just finding the middle of the green and taking what's left from there will be good enough. Green Size: 20x25 Yards.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 16: Par 3, 227 Yards
Approach: The last of the long par 3's here, and this one is the longest. Bunkers that protect the left and right will be in play no matter what, and there isn't really a safe spot to miss. Once again, target somewhere near the center of the green, get a par and move on. Green Size: 20x30 Yards.
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 17: Par 4, 443 Yards
Off the Tee: Back to the norm for the course, fairway bunker right in the landing area and canyon trouble to the left. As long as this tee shot goes straight, the hole turns into a scoring hole since it's not very long. Long hitters may even get to pull out wedges for the approach.
Approach: A relatively short approach here to one of the larger greens on the course. Bunkers protect the front of the green and shouldn't be a problem, especially with clubs that can get enough spin on them to go over front pins and spin back to them. If they move pins away from the bunkers there will be even more scoring on this hole. Green Size: 30x25 Yards.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 18: Par 5, 570 Yards
Off the Tee: Straightforward tee shot to end the round, bunkers won't get in the way except for the bombers, so just send it as straight as possible and get ready for the second shot.
Approach: If this hole was located somewhere in the middle of the course, we probably wouldn't see anyone attempt the green in two, just like we probably won't see many attempting that on the other par 5's on the course. However, especially in the final round, we will likely see some of the longer hitters and guys that are chasing the leader take out fairway woods or long irons and try to fly it on the green to get a chance at eagle to close out the round. "Devlin's Billabong" pond is in front of the green and bunkers cover most of the rest of the green so it's not safe anywhere. The ideal play is similar to the other par 5's by laying up short of the pond and have a short wedge to the green, but they'll need to take a risk to try to win coming down the stretch which will make this a very exciting finishing hole on Sunday. Green Size: 30x35 Yards.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach
North Course Notes (Par 72, 7258 Yards)
The South course has the hardest hole on tour, and carries the higher overall difficulty between the two, but the North course has it's own troubles as well. Seven holes play over par, including three that are routinely in the top 100 hardest holes every year. This course is much shorter than the South course, which is why it plays easier, and it will actually feel much shorter because a lot of the scorecard distance is taken up by all the par 3's playing over 200 yards. There are a handful of par 4's that are under 400 yards and should be easily handled, especially by those that can really bomb it off the tee. The story is the same on this course as it was on the south course though, without all the length. Fairways are mostly narrow, and bunkers are placed right where tee shots are expected to land on a lot of the holes. They also place bunkers on both sides of most of the greens to catch the errant shots, but bunkers are the course's only defense since there are not many trees and no water hazards.
Conclusions
Between the North and South courses, they will be playing five of the top 65 hardest holes on tour. Of the eight par 3's they'll see, only one of them is less than 200 yards. Both of these courses are hard, but, there's eight par 5's and seven of them are the easiest holes they'll see on the weekend, so Par 5 Scoring will be extremely important.
Due to the length of the courses, Driving Distance will play a key role, but if things get too wild they'll just be playing all of their shots from fairway bunkers or watching them roll down into the canyons. For that reason, Ball-Striking should be something important to look at, since it takes into account both driving distance and accuracy. It also takes into account Greens in Regulation, which is going to be important especially on all of those long approaches.
Speaking of long approaches, the longer the approach comes from the less chance there is of hitting a green, obviously, so good Scrambling will keep these guys in contention. Other than a couple of years of low scores, there isn't a ton of scoring in this tournament, so it's especially important to keep bogey off the card and capitalize on the few scoring chances there are.
Other stats to consider: Par 4 Scoring, Approaches 200+, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Driving Accuracy
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecards:
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