RADIO
Rick Lucks introduces the 2023 version of his annual series on sabermetrics in fantasy baseball. This invaluable guide to advanced stats can help you with draft prep for the upcoming season.
Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find.
This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy managers may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple degrees in applied mathematics are not required to use advanced metrics effectively, and this will be a no-math zone.
The focus will be on sabermetric statistics and ideas that are useful for predicting the standard stats the vast majority of fantasy leagues care about, such as batting average and home runs for hitters, and ERA and strikeouts for pitchers. If you're tired of finishing in the bottom half of your fantasy leagues, using these tools can give you a significant advantage on draft day and beyond. Here is a brief look at some of the concepts we'll be covering, as well as one central question we'll try to answer.
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The Basics
Concepts in this category are relatively common knowledge in the fantasy baseball community, so it's safe to assume that at least some of your rivals are using them. That said, you have to learn how to walk before you start running. If you're just getting into fantasy baseball, these articles represent a great entry point.
BABIP (Hitters)
What can a player do to influence his batted ball "luck?"
HR/FB
What is the best way to determine if a power breakout was real or a fluke?
Batted Ball Distribution
Grounders, fly balls, and line drives: which one is the best for fantasy production?
Plate Discipline
Why should I care about plate discipline if I play in a standard 5x5 roto league?
FIP/xFIP
Is it possible to measure a pitcher's performance on his own merits, separate from his teammates?
BABIP (Pitchers)
Can we quantify the support a pitcher's fantasy production receives from his teammates?
Trickier Concepts
Concepts in this category seem easy enough, but involve some nuance that may trip newcomers up. Considering that interpreting advanced stats incorrectly is often worse than not using them at all, some fantasy managers limit themselves to just the concepts above. Of course, that means you can start to gain a competitive advantage by reading the articles below.
Pull%
Are all pulled batted balls the same?
Batting Order Slot
Which role is more valuable: the Yankees' eighth hitter or Oakland's cleanup man?
Pitch Info
How can we tell if a pitcher's repertoire shift supports his breakout?
Ballpark Factors
How much do ballparks really affect a player's fantasy stats?
MiLB Stats
Is my team's top prospect the next big fantasy contributor?
Statcast
If you've watched a baseball game recently, you've probably heard announcers waxing poetic on the exit velocity of a home run or an outfielder's route efficiency to a ball. Those singular events don't have much value in fantasy baseball, but Baseball Savant also compiles average statistics that give fantasy managers more info to work with than they have ever had before. This category is where you'll find most of the innovation in the space, as well as the biggest competitive advantages.
Exit Velocity
Who hits the ball with the most authority consistently?
Barrels
Why does adding the launch angle make exit velocity a more effective predictive tool?
Pitcher Statcast
Can pitchers really influence what happens once a ball is put in play?
Spin Rate
Do fantasy managers prefer to see a high spin rate on a fastball or a lower one?
Statcast Pitch Tracking
Do individual pitches have platoon splits?
xStats
What are some of the advantages and disadvantages of Baseball Savant's projected BA and SLG?
Conclusion
Advanced stats can do a lot more than what's listed above, but these concepts are more than enough to help you start using analytics to make smart fantasy baseball decisions. You'll see RotoBaller analysts using the metrics above regularly, so read some articles and get a feel for how to do your own analysis. Use the information above to dominate your leagues in 2023 and beyond!
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