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Another interesting week in the world of fantasy defenses where the Detroit Lions finished as the number two fantasy defense on the week for their performance against the Packers. We also saw the Jets finish third in a well-earned victory over the Bills, while the Bucs got back into people's good graces and both the Cardinals and Seahawks finished in the top ten despite their game having 52 combined points.
That's just another example of what we've been saying that points against isn't the be-all-end-all of fantasy defenses. If you can get sakcs or turnovers or even luck into some defensive touchdowns like Miami did on a blocked punt TD, then it doesn't matter if your defensive gets roasted. However, that means we need to make sure we are identifying the teams that get consistent turnovers and pressure, which is what, I hope, my BOD rankings are doing.
As a reminder, every week I do a YouTube DST video called Pick 3(DST) where I give you three defenses I like during the week and one that I'm fading. We have some fun with it, but I think it gives a lot of the same reasoning I present here, so check it out for some video fun. And my BOD Leaderboard is available on Public Tableau, where you can see my updated BOD rankings, plus a leaderboard for the individual defensive stats I use for the BOD formula, and some of the offensive stats that I think can help us determine which DST to play or not. Also, make sure to always check back with this article over the weekend because I will my updated rankings as the week goes on when we get injury news or troubling weather information, etc.
What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 10 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 10 everyone!
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Break-Ups) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(Missed Tackles)+ (% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
46-44 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top 10 this year, so I'll keep track using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 10 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
We're going with safety and security in Tier 1 this week. These are the top two defenses in fantasy according to my BOD rankings, and they both face opponents who are in the top nine in points allowed to opposing fantasy defenses. I'm not sure if they'll finish first and second this week, but these are the two defenses I have, far and away, the most confidence in. If Aaron Jones sits out, I think you can also make an argument that Dallas should be ahead of Philadelphia.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
This is a small tier, but it just shows you have tricky this week is going to be to figure out.
The Cardinals vault into the second tier with Matthew Stafford set to miss this game with a concussion. This Rams offense gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses and that was with Stafford under center. Budda Baker will miss this game for Arizona, which isn't great, but I think I'm willing to take the gamble here with John Wolford under center.
I also think I can trust both the Bucs and the 49ers despite poor matchups. The Bucs got much healthier on defense last week with the return of Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting. They might get Antoine Winfield Jr back this week, which is good news against a Seahawks team that is good but also gives up 6.4 fantasy points to opposing DSTs and let Arizona finish as a top-ten defense last week. This isn't a high-ceiling spot for Tampa, but they have a good defense that's 1st in tackles for a loss, 3rd in sacks, and 4th in the rate of drives that end in an opponent's score, so they should put up a respectable score here.
Both the Steelers and the Saints defenses are in play this week. The Steelers offense gives up the 3rd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and the Saints give up the 4th-most. That means, despite the struggles of both of these defenses, we need to consider them this week. However, I'm more confident in the Steelers because there is a potential that they get back both defensive end T.J. Watt and safety Damontae Kazee. Those are two big additions to the defense. This Steelers defense is an entirely different unit with Watt on the field, and while he may not be 100% right out of the gates, he could make an impact against a Saints offense that has turned the ball over four times in their last three games and allowed four sacks on Monday against the Ravens. SUNDAY UPDATE: TJ Watt is officially back. The Steelers remain a risky play here, but I think that just goes to show how few "sure things" there are this week when it comes to fantasy DSTs.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
Denver being ranked down here is assuming that Ryan Tannehill will be back this week. If Malik Willis plays again, we've seen enough to know that we need to play this Denver defense. However, this is also Denver's first game without Bradley Chubb, so it's hard to tell exactly how that will impact the performance of the defensive line. Derrick Henry has been on an absolute tear of late, so if the Titans are at full strength, I think it makes the Broncos a high-floor but low-ceiling option. SUNDAY UPDATE: Both Ryan Tannehill and Treylon Burks are expected to be back for Denver, but this Tennessee offense is still one we can feel OK playing our DST against.
The 49ers get a bit of an easier matchup than this would normally be since it's possible the Chargers will be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are dynamic players, but those are big losses for Los Angeles. However, the Chargers also give up the 6th-fewest points per game to opposing defenses, so it's really hard to bank on a big scoring game from the 49ers here. However, they have been a strong defense for much of the year, so the floor might be safe here. SUNDAY UPDATE: The 49ers will now be without cornerback Jason Verrett and defensive end Arik Armstead. Those are not small losses.
Everybody is also talking about how good a matchup this is for the Chiefs, but the Jaguars give up the 8th-fewest points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. Plus, Travis Etienne has looked really good since being given the starting running back role. I like KC here, but I don't think it's a smash spot.
The Bills' defense has struggled with injuries all season but the performance has started to slip of late. They were without Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano on Sunday against the Jets, and we saw a lot of big runs on missed tackles. Now the Bills may be without defensive end Gregory Rousseau for a couple of weeks after he sprained his ankle in the first half of the Jets game. I think the (potential) returns of Poyer and Milano can keep this defense in the top ten, as well as the likelihood that Tre'Davious White sees some snaps on Sunday, but this is a unit that has some issues it needs to solve. SUNDAY UPDATE: Jordan Poyer is out, so is Greg Rousseau and cornerback Kaiir Elam. The Bills did promote former Pro Bowler Xavier Rhodes from the practice squad, but who knows what he's capable of now.
Tennessee gets the third spot by virtue of a game against a pretty mediocre Broncos offense and Tennessee's own solid defense. The Titans are 11th in pressure rate, 11th in sacks, 7th in turnover rate, and 6th in the rate of drives that end in an opponent's score, so they've been pretty steady across the board. They've also been the 6th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 11.7 fantasy points scored. Now they get a Broncos offense that gives up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing DSTs and that makes the Titans one of the few defenses I feel I can truly trust this week. SUNDAY UPDATE: Tennesee is now set to be without five starters on defense including stud defensive tackle Jefferey Simmons, safety Amani Hooker, and linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham. I still think you can attack this Broncos offense, but it will be harder for them to reach a ceiling performance.
Why do people keep ranking the Rams in the top 10? They have two top-10 finishes all year and just one week all year where they scored in double digits. They just had a four-point week against Tampa Bay and a two-point week against San Francisco. Arizona is certainly a step back on offense, but they're not that bad. I can't get behind the Rams this week. SUNDAY UPDATE: Well, I had to move the Rams up after Kyler Murray was ruled out. Still, I think Colt McCoy is a serviceable quarterback and this whole game could be sloppy and ugly, so I have no idea what to expect.
The Seahawks are the 4th-ranked defense over the last month and are starting to climb towards the top ten in my BOD rankings. They're 9th in the NFL in turnover rate, 4th in sacks, 5th in tackles for a loss, and have proven themselves to be a big-play defense. However, even despite the struggles of the Tampa Bay offense, they're still giving up the 7th-fewest points per game to opposing defenses and have elite players in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so this will not be an easy game for Seattle.
The Giants should also be playable against the Texans, but I can't advise you to go too crazy on a defense that has been average this year and is now without Xavier McKinney. The Giants are 24th in the rate of drives that end in an opponent's score, 25th in turnover rate, 24th in sacks, and 12th in pressure rate, so you're really just playing them because they face the Texans. That's fine, but we don't want to elevate them over legitimately good defenses just because of that. SUNDAY UPDATE: Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are both back for the Texans, which is not a small thing.
This Vikings ranking is assuming that Buffalo will be without Josh Allen. You could argue that we could move Minnesota higher than this as well, but I think Case Keenum is a solid backup quarterback, who has enough weapons to keep the Bills' offense humming - to a certain extent. Keenum also has a lower career sack rate than Josh Allen does, so he'll use dump-off passes to Devin Singletary, James Cook, and Nyheim Hines to avoid pressure. Those aren't bad outlet options. However, this Bills offense is clearly not the same without their quarterback, and that will keep the Vikings as a solid play. SUNDAY UPDATE: Josh Allen is now set to start, which obviously makes the Vikings harder to trust, even though we have no idea how effective Allen will be with his elbow injury.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
The Colts are in play because they're a solid defense going up a Raiders team that just looks ot be floundering. I know everybody wants to take the Raiders DST here because of Indianapolis' weird personnel moves this week, but this Colts defense has Shaq Leonard back and is 6th in yards allowed per play, 12th in sacks, 2nd in tackles for a loss, and 11th in the rate of drives that end in an opponents' score, so they've been a solid - if unspectacular - unit all season and can be playable in this matchup. SUNDAY UPDATE: Shaq Leonard has seen been placed on the IR after suffering a setback. It's a pretty massive blow to this defense.
Everybody wants to play the Panthers and Falcons because of bad weather and the fact that the opposing offenses aren't great. However, just a word of caution on that. Run-heavy games lead to fewer chances for sacks and turnovers, which often lead to lower-scoring fantasy games. Even if Carolina and Atlanta aren't great, they don't take lots of chances with the ball, so these teams could score around six points this week, which isn't anything to turn your nose up at but not really a chance I'm taking early in the week.
I also have the Raiders as the worst defense in the NFL based on BOD. I can't recommend that you play them, even against the Colts. I might move them up if Jonathan Taylor misses another week, but this Raiders team is last in sacks, last in tackles for a loss, 31st in turnover rate, 27th in QB pressure rate, and 28th in the rate of opponents' drives that end in a score, so I can't imagine feeling good playing them. SUNDAY UPDATE: Jonathan Taylor is set to play on Sunday.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
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