RADIO
Week 7 was full of surprises. The biggest surprise may have been that all-everything running back Christian McCaffrey got traded to the San Francisco 49ers leaving D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard as the featured running backs in Carolina. Carolina proceeded to have its season's best rushing total. And the Panthers promptly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 21-3.
The biggest surprise was that it happened in that order! Before Week 7, the Carolina Panthers were trending down. The head coach was fired. Wide receiver Robby Anderson was sent to the locker room in the middle of the game and soon after traded away. And the biggest seismic shift, running back McCaffrey was traded away.
Interim head coach Steve Wilks announced before their Week 7 matchup that he would employ a running back by the committee against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both Foreman and Hubbard would share the responsibilities that McCaffrey previously covered. Both backs were productive on Sunday, but what can we expect going forward?
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The Preamble
Week 7 was supposed to be the week Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense "got right." They were favored in the game by 13.5-points. In every metric that mattered, the Buccaneers were the superior team.
The Buccaneers were sixth against the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks 190.0 passing yards per game. The Panthers were 19th, allowing 231.0 passing yards per game. The Buccaneers relying on history were still a respectable 16th against the run. They surrendered an average of 118.3 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Panthers gave up an average of 120.9 rushing yards per game.
Week 7 Run Game
The Buccaneers never led in the game. That's why they play the game. The two-person rotation materialized until Hubbard injured his ankle in the fourth quarter. Until then, Hubbard played 22 snaps, and Foreman played 14 snaps in three quarters. Hubbard was the third-down back, and he out carried Foreman eight to four.
Hubbard finished with 73 total scrimmage yards on 11 touches. He ran 10 routes. And although Foreman had the first carry, Hubbard had the next seven carries in the game.
Foreman finished the game with 17 touches and 145 all-purpose yards. He had 71 yards after the catch and two explosive runs. He also had one explosive 23-yard reception on one of his two targets.
The final score was 21-3. Carolina Panthers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers included the Panthers' best rushing total of 173 yards.
Is It Sustainable?
Hubbard did not practice Thursday. So, his viability in fantasy is in question for the short term.
The Panthers' next three games are against the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Falcons. The Falcons have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position, 14.0 (in comparison, the Buccaneers had allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position, 13.7). But where the Buccaneers allowed 118.3 rushing yards per game, the Falcons only allowed 100.3 (5th ranked).
The Panthers' next opponent, the Bengals, are giving up an average of 119.0 rushing yards per game (19th ranked). The Bengals also allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position, 12.6 per game.
That's Why They Play The Game
Last week the statistics looked equally bad, and Foreman finished with 16.5 fantasy points. That put him ahead of Khalil Herbert (RB18), Jonathan Taylor (RB20), and David Montgomery (RB24) for the week. That was good enough for RB17 in PPR formats.
Even without a fourth-quarter performance, Hubbard finished as RB21 in PPR formats. Firmly ahead of Tony Pollard (RB23) and Najee Harris (RB27).
The Falcons have held Joe Mixon and Jeff Wilson under 60 rushing yards in the last two games. Mixon did rush for a touchdown and added 33 receiving yards. That game was far from competitive, as the Falcons lost 17-35.
The Panthers' two matchups against the Falcons (this week and Week10) are predicted to be more competitive. The Falcons are favored by four with an implied total of 41.0. The question is, who to play in the game?
What Running Back Do You Choose?
Last week in three quarters, Hubbard had a 48% snap share, nine carries, three targets, and ran seven routes. Foreman played the entire game. He finished with a 54% snap share, 15 carries, two targets, and ran eight routes. He also had two explosive run plays to Hubbard's none and one explosive receiving play to none from Hubbard.
This week it is an easy choice. Hubbard is hobbled with an ankle injury. Foreman is the play. Although the Falcons' defense looks good on paper for the season, last month, they allowed the third-most fantasy points to the running back position (31.1). The game will be slow. Carolina is last in plays per game (53.3), and Atlanta is 30th (56.9). Atlanta attempts the second-fewest passes per game (21.4), and Carolina the seventh-fewest (28.9).
As the Panthers play the Falcons twice in the next three weeks, expect Foreman to continue to trend up. Hubbard is a wait-and-see. If Hubbard returns healthy, the Panthers have shown both backs can be fantasy relevant.
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