RADIO
We are officially just a couple of days away from the first regular season games of the new NBA season! At this point, most of your drafts are probably done with some still to come right up until the first game tips off. For those that do still need to draft, we want to help you prepare for the 2022-23 fantasy basketball season!
You may recognize this format if you play fantasy football. Here on RotoBaller, we had a series during the NFL preseason that followed this same outline. The point of this series is to show several players on every team that is either great value or being drafted too high compared to their ADP this preseason.
Today, we're going to take a look at the 2022-23 New York Knicks and identify the breakouts, busts, and locks for this fantasy season!
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Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Immanuel Quickley
This was actually a difficult decision between both Quickley and RJ Barrett. A big reason why you're not seeing Barrett's name as a "breakout" is that he already did breakout. Last year was his best so far and he's going to improve with a real point guard in the starting five.
Let's get to the man of the hour though.
Quickley is in line to get an increase in minutes after flashing a bit more of an all-around type of game. According to Draft Kings, he is in the top third for odds to win both Most Improved Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. On top of that, during the last two months of this past season, he was ranked 64th in Basketball Monster's total value rankings.
That value from the last two months is going to be more similar to what you'll get out of Quickley this year. His minutes per game jumped up to around 27 after the all-star break and he continues to gain more trust from coach Tom Thibodeau.
His current ADP across multiple sites has been as low as 165. The other guards in that area aren't putting up 17.6 points, 5.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per 36 minutes. Other names at the same position that are around the same ADP include Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, and his teammate Derrick Rose. Something tells me that's a bit low for a player getting sixth-man minutes and entering just his third season in the league.
Two more pieces to this puzzle are the additions of Jalen Brunson and Isaiah Hartenstein, and the growth of Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes. Quickley was only assisted on 29.9% of his two-point field goals and 52.6% of his threes. He assisted his teammates on 24.5% of their field goals as well. All three of these figures will be on the way up with better passers and offensive production around him.
So, when you're getting into the later rounds of your draft, make sure you give Immanuel Quickley a look so that you can brag about picking the big sleeper!
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Mitchell Robinson
Here's a name that many probably wouldn't expect. Mitchell Robinson has been targeted in drafts quite a lot because rebounds and blocks are hard to come by. In that regard, Robinson does give some good value at 8.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. This coming season, however, an ADP of 88 in Yahoo! leagues is a bit high.
Currently, his minutes are hovering right around 25 per game. He actually saw a decrease from the year before. Now, the Knicks added Isaiah Hartenstein as a backup center with offensive upside. During his 68 games with the Los Angeles Clippers, Hartenstein averaged 8.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 blocks in just 17.9 minutes per game.
If that doesn't scream someone's minutes are getting taken away, then I'm not sure what does. The per 36 numbers even favor Hartenstein as the better all-around player.
While managers are looking at Robinson around that 88th ADP, the wiser choice is going to be waiting until Hartenstein's ADP of 165 and grabbing yourself a nice all-around center. Especially while there are still names like Bobby Portis, Robert Williams III, Brandon Clarke, and Lauri Markkanen going in the same round.
Fantasy Basketball Locks: Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson
These two are going to be options one and two for Tom Thibodeau. Yes, RJ Barrett will be in the mix, but the offense is going to run through Randle and Brunson more often than not.
Julius Randle has gotten a lot of heat, especially from Knicks fans, after last year's down season. To keep things in perspective, however, his "down" season meant a stat line of 20.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists on 41.1% shooting. If that's an off-year for a power forward, well it could definitely be a lot worse.
Remember when the Knicks had that special season that ultimately ended against the Atlanta Hawks? Randle put up a scorching 24.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game while knocking down 45.6% from the floor and 41.1% from three. The likelihood of another season identical to that one isn't crazy high, but he has proven to have the skill needed to get back to a similar season. Their big three is more formidable and Randle is going to be a big component.
Another part of that big three is the new guy on the block. As a second option to none other than Luka Doncic, Brunson had his best year yet. His play in this past postseason showed his poise under pressure and during the regular season, and he registered 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on a hyper-efficient 50.2% shooting. Now, he's not only the starting point guard, he's going to have the keys to the offense.
While his usage and field goal attempts continued to rise, his efficiency didn't take a hit. He's been averaging less than two turnovers per game every season and boasted a 24.3% assist percentage last year. According to Basketball Reference, out of everyone that qualified for the assist percentage leaders, Brunson was one of only three players to have a turnover percentage of 10.1% or lower.
Oh, don't forget his offensive output is bound to go up with all of the opportunities he's going to get. He already had 18.3 points per 36 minutes with Dallas, so increasing his actual average of 16.3 to 20 or more isn't out of question.
Conclusion
The New York Knicks are a difficult team to predict. Thibodeau could play just six guys all year and neglect a lot of young talent as we've seen before. On the other hand, the front office could put pressure on him to play the up-and-coming players more often to encourage growth.
What we do know is that the big three of Brunson, Randle, and Barrett are going to get as many minutes as they can handle all year long. After that, it comes down to staying out of the coaching dog house and growth from Quickley, Toppin, and company. Hopefully, the Big Apple treats you all well for your fantasy season!
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